ABMD, CEVA, MZOR & NTES in break out mode

I know Abiomed has been a Saul stock previously and I have mentioned CEVA, Mazor & NetEase here and on the NPI board before but FWIW they all seem to be in breakout mode hitting all time highs right now.

Getting tempted to take some Abiomed off the table before St Jude comes in with its trial results around year end. Also medical investments might sour after the election results given some of the comments from Clinton and Trump.

Ceva is in the slip stream of IOT, virtual reality and self driving cars so definitely in the right space at the right time. If anyone of these is a winner for them they will do well. They are also benefiting from Intel’s win with the iPhone which if it includes CEVA has got them some big volume business - watch out for the tear down analysis.

Mazor has completed its second tranche of the Medtronic buy in - the relationship is clearly going well paving the way for commercial success and a potential buy out supporting the stock price.

Netease was the cheapest Chinese internet stock on the planet last year and has appropriately been revalued upwards with the tsunami of the Chinese online gaming trend.



Speaking of Chinese (NTES) I have been looking at WB for the past few weeks but have not pulled the trigger on it as it continues to climb. Just short of 52 week high now I believe. PE sky high but near 40% sales growth. Have thoughts on it?
Have owned a goodly portion of NTES for some time now and very happy with it. Like the direction it is going…

WB is referred to as the twitter of China and sometimes the Youtube of China. It has grown quickly and the SP has risen far and fast this year. Maybe it was left behind and this is catch up, maybe has over done it.

I do know that Youku was perceived as the Youtube of China and now that is in the hands of Alibaba it will be lethal competition for WB - esp if WB relies on driving traffic to Taobao for its business model.

Similarly Wechat owned by Tencent is the dominant messaging platform. Not sure if these leaves room in the market for a Chinese Twitter (not that Twitter is the model of health in the West).

In China everyone talks about BAT - (their equivalent of FANG); Baidu, Alibab and Tencent. That’s not to say there isn’t room in the market for others but they are the tier 1 players…


Netease is in gaming so that is a fairly high value and fast growing dedicated market which has competition but it dominates its niche.

CTrip dominates the OTA space but again faces competition.



Soycapital - here’s an interesting article covering WB and comparing fundamentals across the Chinese social media internet plays…


I thought it was pretty good. It did re-raise my interest in YY as well as Tencent which seems to have trailed BABA and Netease ratings of late.


1 Like

Things have changed since 9/19 as today is 9/22 if you got into some at the right price you are sitting pretty. If you are just joining this thread now some are too late to buy.

Just hitting a new high does not qualify as “breakout mode”, at least in my book. It needs to come out of a proper base and have proper volume.

NTES has had a great run since its breakout from a base, but it is too far extended now to buy without additional risk.

ABMD is a strong stock, but the breakout point was probably as it passed $124.82 on volume. At a close of 126.37, it is a mere 1.25% above the breakout point and well within the 5% safety buy range. I am long EW but might have to reenter ABMD.

Great growth ratings at IBD:
Composite Rating 99 Pass
EPS Rating 86 Pass
RS Rating 90 Pass
Group RS Rating A Pass
SMR Rating A Pass
Acc/Dis Rating A- Pass
and #1 in its group.

CEVA had a very nice flat base from early Aug to a week ago. About 5 weeks, which is ok for a flat base (cups want 7 weeks). It shot past a buy point on huge volume a few days ago, so is too extended to buy without additional risk. If you had bought this on 9/19 when you posted then that was perfect timing, let it run.


MZOR held its 50dma then had a nice high volume bump up, a move that triggers buys for many chart watchers. The current base is short, but flat, so the 5 or so weeks is fine. A proper buy point would be $24.89 on volume. Aggressive buys will get a small position now based on the 50dma bounce and then fill out if it breaks past $24.89 on STRONG volume.

Warning, MZOR has poor growth rankings compared to all other stocks followed by IBD. I will stay away.
Composite Rating 71 Fail
EPS Rating 11 Fail
RS Rating 98 Pass
Group RS Rating A+ Pass
SMR Rating D Fail
Acc/Dis Rating A- Pass



I was just reading thru the IBD, it says ABMD is extended from a $105 buy point, so I did not read the chart like they did. So that was the breakout in June and I was thinking this latest base might qualify, but I guess not.

Retraction of the ABMD retaction. I like this guy in general, he says:

Among the names, Abiomed ABMD, -0.42% was discussed in the July 5 column. (“Very aggressive speculators might consider the Aug. 13 high of 110.68 as an entrance pivot for a breakout play.”) The company makes products to address heart disease and advanced heart failure.

One of the attractions here is the earnings-estimate acceleration expected by most Wall Street analysts tracking the outfit. March 2017 fiscal year earnings growth is forecast by most to be 38%, followed by a 54% estimated increase in the March 2018 year. This magnitude of forecasted growth is uncommon in the current market.

The other four substantial pluses are 11 months’ worth of solidly rising relative-strength line, extreme accumulation (focused buying) over the medium term, rock-steady revenue growth (38%, 39% and 40%, respectively, in recent quarters), and, technically, a sound base.

Regarding the latter, price forms a six-week flat consolidation characterized by a major volume dry up. Friday, the stock came out of the base on volume 45% above average. This is generally the minimum amount of volume that is preferred on a breakout.

An aggressive speculator may consider entrance around Tuesday’s closing level of 125.10. This is less than 0.5% past the pivot point of 124.72, the Aug. 11 high. Pullback players may wait to see if price can retrace to the 120.00 area.

As always, a protective stop should be used to mitigate risk, along with a starter position that is half normal size, or less. This initial position could be added to if the stock proves itself.

Everyone looks at charts a bit differently :wink:

1 Like

Thanks Ant, A very good article by this author I thought, when I see the numbers in comparison for WB they look not so hot, I’d consider one of the others the way it looks. Going to follow this author he appears to have a pretty good handle on Asian equities and I see much growth in these type of stocks in Asia but plenty risks also. I’d tend to take small bites and perhaps even small baskets of closely related stocks. I’ve been burned in China stocks before and I remember saying at one time I said never again.

PH42 I’m not a chart guy but nevertheless I do value your commentary and other inputs on this board very much. Since I have owned NTES for some time I know how volatile it is and so good advice in my opinion to not be buying at these levels. It is probably the most volatile stock I own right now, I just allocate 10% of portfolio to these kind of stocks anyway. I am a buy and hold type so generally all I am looking for is a good entry point, charts seem pretty complicated and my time is limited…Good investing!

Yeh PH42 - thanks for the additions, always hi quality and value adding. Much appreciated.

Soy - I saw a couple of other articles that might interest you on what’s what and who’s who. It seems like Baidu has really had the wind taken out of its sails this year and the tier 1 order is adjusting. Getting really interested in Tencent now and very happy with BABA.



Also YY looks interesting…



Soy - Some more details on how gurus are looking at Weibo and other Chinese investments.

FWIW - I hold BABA (US), AIA and BOC Aviation (HK) from their list.

err with the link…

Soy - Some more details on how gurus are looking at Weibo and other Chinese investments.

FWIW - I hold BABA (US), AIA and BOC Aviation (HK) from their list.

and in terms of the original stocks…

ABMD peaked above 130 for an all time intraday and closing high yesterday…
“Abiomed (ABMD) rose more than 2% to 129.69 after its Impella 2.5 and Impella 5.0 heart pumps received regulatory approval in Japan. The stock is still in buy range from a 124.82 flat-base entry.”

MAZR at 24.19 pushes up against Friday’s 52 week high

BABA at 108.26 found support and pushed up back towards Thursday’s high of 109.76

CEVA retakes 35 at 35.30 in touch of its Thursday’s high 36.81

NetEase at 244.15 moves back up close to its 52 week high of 254 - apparently over extended in its breakout.


China-based Weibo (WB) jumped 4% in heavy volume but it’s well extended after clearing a cup-with-handle base in early April.

FWIW - I’ve sold a 3rd of my ABMD yesterday after hitting another all time high. Chart looks great but I just cannot see them keeping up with the valuation nor dealing with St Jude head to head trial data well at this level - there is no margin for error. I didn’t have a target price in mind but just didn’t want to let greed obscure the valuation and risk realities.

Happy to ride the BABA and MZOR express. MZOR just announced the latest quarter of order intake with the Medtronic sales force behind them and the new pre-release of the Mazor X solution. Stonking results - I would think it increases the likelihood of a successful partnership if not an all out takeover by Medtronic.

Soy - can’t remember if it was you that was interested in the China movie market but this news is an interesting opportunity for BABA along those lines.

I continue to believe BABA is the equivalent of AMZN, YouTube, EBAY, Wallmart, PAYPALL, FedEx & Apple (Appstore/wallet etc) combined.

NetEase - has re-upped its agreement with Activision Blizzard for a long term deal so is considerably de-risked. It is one of my largest holdings and I might trim just on an exposure basis.

I might even be tempted to re-allocate to BABA although there are a few on the Denny watch list I like including NEOGEN and HollyFrontier and then there is Twilio that is getting more interesting by the day plus the re-emergence of the PN arbitrage opportunity.