I received hundreds…nay…thousands…of emails from anxious, scared, and fragile WAFTT regulars, all demanding to know how they will be impacted with the new board format migration coming this weekend.
Similar to Saul’s board, I got together with my co-leaders (if you have to ask, you probably aren’t one of them) and we did a Teams meeting (cause screw Zoom, amiright?) and in concert with our resident TMF Overlord (Jen) we will enact this 5-point plan:
- We have no plan.
- Seriously. No plan here. What…you think this is Saul’s board or something?
- So…how about that market today, eh?
- You have to give one up for the rest of your life: pizza or french fries?
- Can’t believe you are still reading these.
In summary, major changes are afoot!
Dreamer
ps…can’t give up Pizza.
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WAIT…I thought we were using Go-To-Meeting? It’s no wonder I was the only person on the call.
Did some thing happen in the market today while I was busy setting up the new boards? Oh well, I’m sure Dreamer sold everything…although maybe he did that Monday.
Your somewhat kind pizza-eating Overlord
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1. We have no plan.
2. Seriously. No plan here.
Sounds a lot like my IRA investing.
But something is crystalizing from the current amorphous mixture of cash and 21 seemingly random picked stocks and seven remaining option positions. Let’s see if I can establish some principles.
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Pretend that the period between… March 2020 and March 2022 never happened. The COVID stratum washed away in an epochal flood of central bank liquidity. Back early 2020 I had (gasp) 38 stocks, 24% in laddered treasuries and 8% cash. Very Foolish indeed for someone retired, with mandatory IRA distribution. So responsible. Now today, and considering those distributions, the stock portion compounded at 16%, the treasuries went extinct and the stocks are plentiful in variety (21 total, 5 the same*) and cash has grown to 63%. So, what’s the point? Point is, get over it, “it” being precipitous decline in IRA value from the gaudy November 2021 peak. From today forward,16% compounded minus mandatory distribution results in more retirement money than I anticipated when I retired, and barring Weimarian inflation, substantially more than we need. Even 10% will do it. Maybe I’ll declare an ATH by 2030. Its ok., I already won the race. But, my job is to invest, so get over it and get on with it.
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But not all at once and not yet. Don’t fight the Fed. Yield curve is inverted. 1 year is 4.1%. The Fed is going to 4.5% at least. Hold cash at 63% or more until they get there? Plan on a recession. They last a year or two. Market is forward looking, though… Is POMO a plan? I am not a mutual fund. I don’t have to be xy% invested. Can I honestly say that I am not traumatized, I am just being prudent and wise? The Fed, Russia mobilized, four oblasts not just declared independent republics, but a part of Russia. China. The Quad. TSMN. So, holding high cash is part of the plan based on belief that there will be a recession and based on geopolitical risk.
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Look for opportunity. Where can I make my 5.2% distribution while holding cash? Options are working. 1% a week of the at-risk assets is there. Using 10% of the IRA will make that required distribution. And, 1-year treasuries are 4.1%. Better than cash?
Maybe this is a plan.
Current top holding is SPG, 5.4% and yielding 7% dividend. That meets my distribution needs and my judgement is that however the recession is, SPG will come out the other side at least as strong as it is now. It earns $6.42 a share and pays the 7%, so reduced earnings should result in lower dividend and thus lower share price. But I would have cash reserve so I could buy low for what should still be a 5+% dividend. Next top 5 holdings are CRWD, 4.6%; DDOG, 4.26%; MNDY, 3.7%; GLBE, 3.1%; BRZE, 2.8%. I am writing calls on those except MNDY–about 13% of the portfolio so I can continue that. I also have puts on UPST and ZS which I don’t own.
So, I can ride the options horse as long as it has legs and get my 5% distribution there. How much concentration risk do I want with SPG. A few percent on a moonshot TBD. 1 year treasuries. Monday and GLBEa don’t have weekly options so they might get axed in favor of SQ or ZS or SNOW.
That is a plan for a plan.
KC
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Thanks for sharing board and retirement investment plans.
This made me think, what can I do to help? I decided to stop spending money to do my part to stop too high inflation.
Will check back in a few months to see if this helps slow inflation.
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I decided to stop spending money to do my part to stop too high inflation.
Will check back in a few months to see if this helps slow inflation.
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Exactly.
I was at the grocery store, and grabbed 2 protein bars and headed to self checkout.
Then…
I dramatically spun on my heels, returned 1 protein bar, while muttering “take that, Putin!”.
Dreamer <— impactful, man of the world.
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great stuff, KC.
Agreed on SPG. Just don’t know what the low is, but expect they emerge out the other side intact, either way.
Bought some just now…near 52 wk lows.
Dreamer
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