Active Potential METAR Events

Inflation 40 year high in February-7.9%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-cpi-infl…

Windfall Oil Profit tax proposed. Profits may not be fueled by MadMan Putin invasion.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-targets-oil-companies-…

US goes hat in hand to Venezuela & Iran. US shale can’t provide enough extra oil. And Saudi Arabia won’t take US calls.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0177a6a4-149c-3272-bae3-43495fb6…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/09/saudi-arabia…

Goldman Sachs predicting Curve Inversion-Investors unprepared.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-investors-…

Commodities market continues to surge.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/war-ukraine-leads-full-scale-…

Time for silver & gold purchases along with I savings bonds?

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<Time for silver & gold purchases along with I savings bonds? >

I-series savings bonds are a clear winner.

Silver and gold are riskier for several reasons. Both have gone through boom and bust cycles.

The cash value of the I-Bonds will hold even if (hopefully when) inflation recedes. The cash value of silver and gold will likely fall after a run-up. It’s happened many times before.

Wendy

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Wendy,

Thanks for the tip on the I-bonds, DW and I purchased some in December and again in January.
I recall that the web site said that the 7.12% rate was good until April, then they would be re-priced again. Do you have any experience with how the rates change over time? Here’s a link that I found that shows historical rates, and it seems that the rates have been mostly going down in the past 25 years with some fluctuation. I wonder if the current events will have more influence on the next rate change?

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds…

Thanks,
'38Packard

Good list (well, much of that isn’t “good”, but you get my point).

I’d like to add what is likely going to be a shrinking of globalization, though I think that will take at least 5 years if not longer. COVID, now Ukraine, anti-China sentiments, are all impacting this rather quickly. How is this going to impact large American multi-nationals that have a large percentage of revenue overseas? Or any company importing large amounts of materials or products?

Wal-Mart and Target are largely domestic, except for supply. Boeing, GE, Coca Cola and so many others get lots of revenue overseas. How is this trend going to impact their cost of supply, their revenues, and ultimately their stock prices?

What companies would be somewhat immune from this? Domestic revenue, domestic supply?

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I’d like to add what is likely going to be a shrinking of globalization, though I think that will take at least 5 years if not longer.

Methinks you spot with that prediction. The US & other nations discovered the dependency cost of relying upon fragile long, sole-source supply chains. The US will be moving some production facilities to the homeland like semiconductor chips. New facilities require time for construction & production set up. That does not happen overnight.

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I’d like to add what is likely going to be a shrinking of globalization, though I think that will take at least 5 years if not longer. COVID, now Ukraine, anti-China sentiments, are all impacting this rather quickly. How is this going to impact large American multi-nationals that have a large percentage of revenue overseas? Or any company importing large amounts of materials or products?

Corporate coffers have short term memory only. To keep focus on the long term need to move supply chain domestically, where it is likely more expensive, there will need to be more handouts from the gov’t proving in the short term of the desirability.

IP

Do you have any experience with how the rates change over time?

The rates will follow inflation. That’s because the rate is calculated as the bond fixed rate (0% for the current series being purchased) + 2 times the 6-month inflation rate.

It is explained at your link -
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds…

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