I just took my position in Alteryx about four weeks ago, and it has gone nowhere since then. As I was starting to get impatient, I thought a longer term look-back would be in order.
It looks like they IPOed in March, ten months ago, at $17.25. Here are their monthly closes:
Mar 15.63
Apr 16.00
May 18.87
Jun 19.52
Jul 20.12
Aug 23.60
Sep 20.36
Oct 22.58
Nov 24.94
Dec 25.27
Now 26.47
As you can see, except for the exuberant and out of sequence August result, we’ve had a steady climb with each month closing above the one before in a steady sequence.
The current price is roughly 70% up from the March close (that’s a ‘run-rate’ of 103% per year).
The current price is roughly 53.5% up from the IPO price (which was apparently not a price that the market was willing to give it back in March, but even from there it has a run rate of 64%).
It gave me a new perspective on this “going nowhere” stock, and I decided to be more patient and take it as it comes.
This is a chart of the price of the stock itself, correct?
I note you’ve got a dozen recs - I feel like I’m really not understanding how this is supposed to work. If you were charting revenue or cost of sales or something like that, that was starting to make sense to me.
This is a chart of the price of the stock itself, correct? I note you’ve got a dozen recs - I feel like I’m really not understanding how this is supposed to work. If you were charting revenue or cost of sales or something like that, that was starting to make sense to me. Am I missing something here?
Hi carver, I think you are missing something: I’m just free-associating my thoughts about my own impatience that the stock wasn’t moving since I bought it. That isn’t telling you what you have to buy, or not. If you don’t like what I’m saying just ignore it. I won’t mind. You have to decide for yourself what you want to buy, using your own criteria. Don’t ever buy something because I ramble on about it. I hope that helps!
I’m going to expose myself to a bit of criticism here and support Carver. When I read your initial post on this thread I had quite a “WHAT?” moment. I know you were just free-associating your thoughts, but you did have the thoughts. So I examined my own and to some extent, the tenor of this and other boards that I frequent. Has our recent success led to a… “concern” that the price of the stock of a company has gone nowhere for (drum roll) four weeks? I reflect this back to myself because my cash position has been steadily shrinking. I actually considered rolling the dice on GOOG in advance of the CES in Las Vegas, hoping for a pop based on their advanced promotional efforts. I’m talking 14% here.
I didn’t do it, but I did more than think about it. I had logged on to the account, for crying out loud. In the end I just put in orders for three of the companies that Puddinghead (?) posted about their IBD breakout points. These were three of them that I have been following.
So, my personal “risk on” button has been pushed for the last couple of months, and have considered a tongue-in-check post using that to call the top. When I read your post I thought, “That’s it!”. Our guru, the font of the Knowledge Base, entertained the doubt of his purchase, based on the flat four week price performance. The top is in! We’ve lost our compass.
Well, just free-associating my thoughts. Freud called free association “this fundamental technical rule of analysis… We instruct the patient to put himself into a state of quiet, unreflecting self-observation, and to report to us whatever internal observations he is able to make” - taking care not to “exclude any of them, whether on the ground that it is too disagreeable or too indiscreet to say, or that it is too unimportant or irrelevant, or that it is nonsensical and need not be said”.[9]
For future posts, Subject to include “OT, entering free-association zone”.
FWIWs,I thought Saul lost it for a second, judging a stock based on 4 weeks of price performance when the story and fundamental business hasn’t changed.
But I read on and totally understood that it was Saul being Saul, speaking his mind freely, which is one of the reasons he thinks he is successful and this board is useful.
Success breeds success, like momentum, IMO. Its natural that people on this board hang on his every opinion, and base purchases solely off of one post vs. due diligence. No matter how many times he tells them not to.
On another note, if we (consumers of this board) can’t support Saul’s free though flow, and react to everything he says, he might not post his insights as much. 2cents. I think he will still, he has a force of will that seems to resist strap-hangers.
Everyone needs to take their own path, but having Saul let us know what he’s thinking is another marker on the trail to help guide us.
It’s up to each person to determine their own path.
It looks like they IPOed in March, ten months ago, at $17.25. Here are their monthly closes:
Mar 15.63
Apr 16.00
May 18.87
Jun 19.52
Jul 20.12
Aug 23.60
Sep 20.36
Oct 22.58
Nov 24.94
Dec 25.27
Now 26.47
The above quoted post is from 1/9/2018, and now towards the end of February 2018…AYX is above $33 (for at least part of the morning after their earnings announcement).
I just took my position in Alteryx about four weeks ago, and it has gone nowhere since then. As I was starting to get impatient, I thought a longer term look-back would be in order.
It looks like they IPOed in March, ten months ago, at $17.25. Here are their monthly closes**(2017)**:
Mar 15.63
Apr 16.00
May 18.87
Jun 19.52
Jul 20.12
Aug 23.60
Sep 20.36
Oct 22.58
Nov 24.94
Dec 25.27
Now 26.47 **Jan. 9, 2018**
*As you can see, except for the exuberant and out of sequence August result, we’ve had a steady climb with each month closing above the one before in a steady sequence.*
The current price is roughly 70% up from the March close (that’s a ‘run-rate’ of 103% per year).
The current price is roughly 53.5% up from the IPO price (which was apparently not a price that the market was willing to give it back in March, but even from there it has a run rate of 64%).
It gave me a new perspective on this “going nowhere” stock, and I decided to be more patient and take it as it comes.
Best, Saul
With shares of AYX now at about $44, this post came to mind and seemed to be worth re-visiting. Tinker’s effusive post over on the NPI board also played a factor in me deciding to dig this thread up. http://discussion.fool.com/alteryx-amazing-33130020.aspx?sort=wh…
Seems that Alteryx is quite an impressive company in its capabilities. I certainly took note when Saul announced that he opened a full-sized rather than a starter position in AYX. Hopefully Alteryx will have yet another quarter of a 130+% $-based retention rate.
+1. This was part of the final “go” signal for me to buy in mid-February (I was late catching up on the board… it’s definitely getting more traffic!), so thanks, Saul!
