Saul, you recently posted about the fact that AYX’s share price had not gone up much, if at all, since you initiated your position in it. You subsequently posted that the price appears to have increased by about $1 per share over the last many months. My question is, given that the stock market in general has been going up lately, are you concerned that AYX’s boat doesn’t seem to be lifted by the tide?
Thanks,
speedy
Saul, you recently posted about the fact that AYX’s share price had not gone up much, if at all, since you initiated your position in it. You subsequently posted that the price appears to have increased by about $1 per share over the last many months. My question is, given that the stock market in general has been going up lately, are you concerned that AYX’s boat doesn’t seem to be lifted by the tide? Thanks,
speedy
Hi Speedy, Here’s what I wrote just a week ago:
I just took my position in Alteryx about four weeks ago, and it has gone nowhere since then. As I was starting to get impatient, I thought a longer term look-back would be in order. It looks like they IPOed in March, ten months ago, at $17.25. Here are their monthly closes:
Mar 15.63
Apr 16.00
May 18.87
Jun 19.52
Jul 20.12
Aug 23.60
Sep 20.36
Oct 22.58
Nov 24.94
Dec 25.27
Now 26.47
As you can see, except for the exuberant and out of sequence August result, we’ve had a steady climb with each month closing above the one before in a steady sequence. The current price is roughly 70% up from the March close (that’s a ‘run-rate’ of 103% per year).
The current price is roughly 53.5% up from the IPO price (which was apparently not a price that the market was willing to give it back in March, but even from there it has a run rate of 64%). It gave me a new perspective on this “going nowhere” stock, and I decided to be more patient and take it as it comes.
When I wrote that a week ago, the price was $26.47. It’s now $26.71, up another percent or so. Now Speedy, when you say its boat hasn’t been lifted by the tide, I’m a bit flabbergasted!!!
Do you think that up 71% in the last 9 1/2 months is not lifted by the tide?
And it closed today up $1.44 from Dec’s close of $25.27. That’s up 5.7% sequentially from Decembers close in just 12 trading days. That 1.44 adds 9.2% additional to the gains from that starting point of $15.63, in just 12 trading days from the end of December. And so far it looks like this will be another in that list of monthly rises I cited above.
I think we get spoiled in a market like this when we start expecting every stock to rise 10% a week. Relax.
Best,
Saul
I think it’s best to keep focussed on how the company is doing, not on how the stock is doing. It was my error to call attention to the stock price in the first place.
Saul
Do you think that up 71% in the last 9 1/2 months is not lifted by the tide?
Thanks for your response, Saul, but when I said “lately”, I should have clarified that I mean over the last week or so, not over the last many months.
Thanks for your response, Saul, but when I said “lately”, I should have clarified that I mean over the last week or so, not over the last many months.
I’m sorry Speedy, I buy based on what I think the company business will do over the next few years. It wouldn’t even occur to me to even think about whether the stock was rising as fast as others over a week or so.
Best
Saul
I am sure glad you told us about the stock and didn’t wait until the end of month report.