AMBA

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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This stock has dropped nicely (or not) and I was looking at buying more shares, or selling puts.

I bought in Dec 13, and after going up, it is back to similar value points.

Saul mentioned in his very nice review that it had bottomed and was going back up. I hope so!

Looking today, I remembered they have not reported yet, and that they warned of declining year over year sales at last report. They beat Rev and Earnings expectations but warned on revenues.

They did also have the first sequential drop in both revenue and earnings per share that I can see in Morningstar’s data, last quarter. I can’t see back to the change from Oct 12 to Jan 13 quarter last year to see if that is seasonal. I would have thought that the Xmas quarter would be great for this company, so seeing a sequential drop last time makes me wonder. The YoY growth was good, but that is the first time sequential dropped.

They report on the 3rd. Anyone buying? Anyone worried about them reporting slowing sales again, even though they told us that? Why was the Xmas quarter a decline sequentially?

I don’t see any puts worth selling here at these levels really. Unless we go ATM to buy more shares.

I have a medium sized postion and would like a little more, but wondering if we have really seen the bottom. A mediocre report in this environment and we could get a lower opportunity in a few weeks. Great spot to start a position, not sure about adding to a fairly full one.

Thoughts?

Gator

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Gator,

From Oct to Jan they dropped revenue from Oct to Jan from

28.8 to 24.6 million in Jan 2012
35.7 to 31.5 million in Jan 2013
46.0 to 40.0 million in Jan 2014

Looks very consistent, and probably because orders for Xmas are in the quarter before.

They are up 4% today. The excuse is because they were initiated at a buy by Ascendiant, but I noted that they had already bottomed in my post over the weekend called Stock Market thoughts:

Second thought – I think most of my stocks have now bottomed and are finished with this ridiculousness. Here’s how I look at it…

AMBA hit bottom Friday of last week, closing at $22.50, and finished this week up 7% at $24.05

Saul

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Yes thanks Saul,

Thanks for the finding on the timing. It is seasonal and very good to know. Where did you see that? Maybe I need a better site for more remote data!

Yes I saw your post.

Thanks

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Where did you see that? Maybe I need a better site for more remote data!

Hi again Gator,

I almost certainly got it by Googling “Ambarella Investor Relations” and then looking under News Releases or under Financial Information. For Ambarella it was under Financial Information and was listed as Quarterly Reports. Then I just scrolled through. I just takes me just maybe 10 minutes to go back two or three years for revenues and earnings. I do it for any and every company I invest in.

Best,

Saul

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