AMBA 14% down as of now. Is Citron’s short attack in effect?
On Friday I went 60% cash only because I had about 120 positions and no focus. I had made a sojourn through MF and picked up ideas from everywhere. AMBA was axed just because (this is an IRA) it was oversized and I wasn’t sure how much I would want to hold in the new portfolio. Logic cries for repurchase today.
KC
Yeh but that might give you an even greater oversized position!
Nice problem to have tho!
Ant
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I do not own AMBA (yet). But if I did, I’d realize that the price of the stock is where it was on June 4. So it’s not that big of a deal.
There have been other Citron reports, which resulted in big price drops.
There are a couple that I can recall, which affected my portfolio - BOFI, DDD, ISRG and EBIX to name a few (there are a lot more).
The BOFI and EBIX attacks turned out pretty well for investors that bought in near the lows (it wasn’t difficult to do so). If you’ve done your homework and read these boards, you probably felt good about holding and adding more BOFI since the attack.
Regarding ISRG, it’s doing okay and DDD has tanked.
Generally, I like these short attacks, despite the short-term pain they cause. It forces management to address some issues (real or fabricated) and provides an incentive for them to be transparent.
Although I didn’t get the benefit of the run-up in EBIX (I sold when they had the buyout offer that fell through and never bought in again), I did manage to make BOFI a much bigger position that I otherwise would have had the price not fallen so much last year.
I have Fletch and the TMF & Saul’s boards to thank for helping me focus on what’s important.
AMBA needs to lose almost half of its remaining value to get to where it was at the beginning of the year. It’s entirely possible that it gets there. But it may not.
DJ
Long BOFI & ISRG, Sold EBIX & DDD a while ago and hoping for the short sellers to mistakenly take AMBA to the woodshed.
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I just stuck to the plan, bought the amount I wanted. If it continues to drop over the next days/weeks I will gladly buy more.
KC
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I changed my mind. 15.1 million of 31.3 million shares traded today, so far,3 hours of trading. Who is left to sell??? Went back overweight.
KC
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Let’s peruse what has happened to AMBA
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/06/22/why-ambarel…
http://www.otcoutlook.com/ambarella-inc-amba-discloses-form-…
https://www.google.com/finance/company_news?q=NASDAQ%3AAMBA&…
For the Swing Traders, there was a SELL signal on friday. Simon Sez also gave a SELL signal as well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBA&p=D&yr=0&m…
Sold AMBA and bought more shares of GILD. and then we wait for a sell signal. Compounding compounding compounding werks best.
Quillnpenn -
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The stock has risen dramatically and I definitely expectd a “rest”, but not this. Every good grwoth stock needs to catch its breath after a run so it can run the next leg. I was hoping for a nice orderly sell off of 25-35% (based on the big run). I had even thought of implement a suggested short play with options - but I did not.
The volume Friday was quite high, but I thought the price drop was not bad considering how far it had recently run. I figured Citron was famous for this and people were not falling for it. I was quite surprised at the huge follow through, and maybe today was compitulation. We don’t know that, but historically, we would not expect this to pop so fast we can’t get back in or get more in. Be patient, this will take a little time to play out. All the “excited” people have left, now more “considered” investors will dominate. Drops like this often take a good 3 days for the initial drop to end, but then can trade sideways for quite a while. Meanwhile we have new ideas like INFN to satisfy our needs without catching a falling knife. Watch a bit, it is probably not a bargain yet, those sellers a NOT coming back for quite a while.
P.
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Here’s my (Saul) impersonation regarding AMBA, with apologies both to Saul and to all the other skilled posters here.
• What matters:
o Financials and facts have not changed.
o Company outlook has not changed.
o As others have noted, current price is same as June 1-3 of this year.
• Current price (compared to June 02 earnings release) now offers benefit
o 1YPEG and other such metrics are again in line with earnings report date
• What doesn’t matter to me:
o Recent drop (Citron article) is all opinion.
o Cramer says the price has fallen too much.
Now what to do….
Why I’d buy at $95:
• I believe prior growth in revenue and earnings will continue in near term, and I’m not overweight for my comfort level.
Why I’d hold at $95:
• I am weighted to max comfort level.
• I want to see the next quarterly report for proof/reassurance
the company is performing (or not) as expected.
o If the next earnings release is as expected, the price may
very well bounce back, but I am willing to forego that
profit for the peace of mind.
• (A ‘trading/timing’ notion – I want to see the price stabilize
before buying more. I am labeling this neither a good nor
a bad move.)
• I have nothing I want to sell in favor of AMBA.
Why I’d sell at $95:
• I am over my comfort level.
• I see something with much better prospects (how could this be
now though, I don’t know, compared to Thursday when the price
was $125ish).
• Fear either of dead money – that Citron is right/predictive.
What this most reminds me of (in terms of general plot) is BOFI just over 12 months ago went from $100+ to high $70s in less than two weeks. SAlpha called for a $35 target. BOFI continued to wander in high $60s to low $80s for several months.
My personal inclination is to wait another week or two, but I am very likely prior to the next quarterly report (because I believe it will confirm the business, and may or may not cause a price rebound). I believe the price will again increase considerably based on some number of consecutive quarterly reports, and that the risk is very low of a downward surprise. (I’d love to have some projected price ranges for myself, but I’m not that far along yet.)
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If you have RB access, I recommend you read TMF1000’s page post on the AMBA board.
Post 1187.
One thing I’ll highlight here is Tom’s comment that in Jan 2014 with the price in the high $30s and a PE of 48, “analysts” viewed the price as too high.
-FrickNFool
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Just for fun, WTF is Citron Research that calls for AMBA 40?(would be nice because I’ve got fresh powder). From their very own website.
http://www.citronresearch.com/who-is-citron-2/
Citron Research represents the work of a team of investigators, led by Andrew Left. Mr. Left is a private investor with 17 years trading experience. Mr. Left has been quoted in every major US fin…In 1995, when Mr. Left was 22 and just out of college, responding to an ad to “earn $100,000” he took his first job, for a brief span of months, working for a commodities trading firm (Universal Commodity Corporation) making cold calls. Several years later, the firm and a list of all its employees (19), were sanctioned by the regulatory arm of the NFA (National Futures Association). Having permanently exited the business of selling investments years prior, Mr. Left did not contest the civil sanctions imposed upon…
Dang!
Alex
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Citron is one of those negatron research companies. They publish a lot of hype nonsense and then try to bank on a short term decline. There wasn’t much substance to their research on this one IMO.
I do agree that the AMBA run post ER was a bit of an overshoot, but it helped provide a nice opportunity to pick up more shares.
Citron is one of those negatron research companies. They publish a lot of hype nonsense and then try to bank on a short term decline. There wasn’t much substance to their research on this one IMO.
I do agree that the AMBA run post ER was a bit of an overshoot, but it helped provide a nice opportunity to pick up more shares.
Citron may be a company such as you describe, I don’t know. But just for technical correctness, their article called the bottom for AMBA at 30 [not 40]. And, they’re not the only ones. A respected analyst [right…what do they know] on stockcharts dot com wrote that AMBA has suffered a “textbook parabolic breakdown” and:
Unfortunately, the expectation is for price to fall all the way to the basing pattern or trading range it was in before the parabola really got started. In the case of AMBA, that would be around $40. Ouch.
Fwiw.
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