An analysis of my current positions: Part #3

An analysis of my current positions: Part #3

So far you have my top 4 positions (BOFI, SWKS, CELG, SKX), which average about 12.5% of my portfolio each…

And my next 4 positions (AIOCF, WAB, CRTO and POL), which average about 6% of my portfolio each.

The four positions after that (positions #9 thru 12), which average about 4.5% of my portfolio, are


XPO – I wrote up XPO two and a half weeks ago in post #4310…. There’s a thread of 10 posts attached to give you some more discussion. I really like this company.

PFIE – This board has been full of PFIE discussion over the past few weeks. You can’t miss them. I wouldn’t average down but I’ll hold and wait and see.

SYNA – After growing their adjusted trailing earnings from $1.95 that they earned in 2012, within 12 months to $4.35 in 2013, they flattened out for the past three quarters while they digested two company-transforming acquisitions (or so they hope), and their trailing earnings are now about $4.00. Late last week they announced the coming retirement of their CFO and raised their revenue guidance for the next quarter. That should give them about $1.30 for the quarter, up from 86 cents. Stock priced advanced about 4.5% in response, but they still have just a 16.5 PE ratio.

FB – Revenues have been advancing more than 50% each quarter, and the last 7 adjusted quarterly earnings (2013 and 2014) have been (in cents per share):

12 19 27 31
34 42 43

This year’s first three quarter earnings are up 105% over last year’s. Current trailing earnings are $1.50. Stock price is $76.85. That gives a PE of 51, and a PEG of just 51/105 = 0.486 (which is very good value).

Now lets look ahead and let’s consider a drop in the rate of growth of earnings from a ridiculous 105% down to a more reasonable 60% in the next 12 months. That would give a forward EPS at this time next year of $2.40 and a PE of 32 at the current price, and a PEG of 0.533.

I like FB too.


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