Another Government Shutdown Crisis

Well here we are again. It’s starting to be the boy who cried wolf. How many times can the American people let all this drama go on without ending all this with the next election? So let’s get the prognostications in. Is there going to be a shutdown or not? I think this time there is a better chance because of the inexperience of the new House Speaker. But I still think there will not be a government shutdown. Nobody can be stupid enough to shutdown the government over Thanksgiving and Christmas, can they? Can you imagine what would happen to the economy if all the airlines were held up over the holidays?

** New House Speaker Mike Johnson may already be losing his first big clash with the hard-right lawmakers who are making the Republican majority and the nation ungovernable as time races down to yet another federal funding cut-off.**

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/mike-johnson-shutdown-house-gop-government-budget/index.html

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Definitely will be. The raucous caucus does not care . They are willing to burn it all down, witness Tuberville and the rest of Gooberville.

This is so cute.

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The crazies are now far more “performative artists” enacting a drama about their POV than they are politically committed actors trying to achieve this policy over that one, and that nihilist social media appealing faction has the mojo for now.

A significant part of the GOP in the House of Represtatives know and rue this, and their goal is to simply to survive the coming catastrophe. They are going along now with the idiocies so as to not enrage the crazies in their home districts, but they are waiting for the entire drama to collapse in failure, when they will try to regroup.

I really think we are in cars heading over the seaside cliffs…

david fb

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Shutdown                            Yes                                   No
                                      Goofy                               Andy
                                      David

Just keeping track of how good people are at prognostications.

Andy

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So I am putting you down as a Yes David, if I am incorrect let me know.

Andy

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So, when we shut down will that cause interest rates to go up or down?

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Hi Andy,

I had a question regarding the way you keep track of each company’s earnings (from a screenshot you shared in Saul’s forum). However I haven’t yet figured out how to send Reply only to Author in these new forums- so pardon me for asking it here. Where do you get the price range of a stock for each quarter that is there in your sheet at the end of each quarter’s earnings (if it’s not manually read from a stock chart by you) ?

(feel free to delete my reply in this read)

Avinash

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No way to know. If it lasts a long time and foments a recession, then the Fed will push rates down. If it’s settled quickly because, as someone says, “they wouldn’t be that stupid”, then maybe no effect. If the economy steamrolls on and inflation doesn’t abate, the rates increase. Some things aren’t predictable, and how long it will last and who gets the pain is probably one of them.

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Thanks. That’s what I was “feeeeeling” but can’t say I was “thinking” it. Personally I like making money on my money market funds after 15 years or so. I don’t want significant inflation but I don’t want to see rates go too low again. And every time I see “FED” in a news story the subliminal message seems to be: They want to LOWER interest rates and are just waiting for some excuse.

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These days, that is called “taking a principled stand”, to put a positive spin on extremist dogma. Remember the Carville piece from a couple days ago: these people really believe the garbage they spew, which is about what Barry Goldwater said, 40 years ago. They are beyond reason.

Steve

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Hi Avinash,
I go onto Yahoo Finance and type in the ticker of the stock I am looking at. So let’s say it is Net. I go to yahoo.com, click on finance, go to the right quote lookup, type in Net, then click on historical data. That allows me to put in a time period. Since I track each quarterly report I know when they reported last time so I take the period they reported this quarter and put it in. So Net reported on 11/2. What I like to do is take one day after the report so I can see if they had a pop or if it went down. So since Net reported 8/4 last time in the period I would make it 8/4/23 and then 11/4/23. I then hit the apply button so that it takes those dates. The reason I use 11/4/23 is because with Yahoo it always take the last date and make it the previous so when I hit 11/4 it automatically makes it 11/3.

Then I go down the low column looking for the lowest price and record that. Then I go down the high column and record the highest price. That gives me the low and high for the quarter. I hope that helps and if you have any more questions just ask.

Andy

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Hi FCorelli,
I am assuming you are thinking there is going to be a shutdown. If that is incorrect just let me know and I will take you off the list.

Andy

Shutdown                            Yes                                   No
                                      Goofy                               Andy
                                      David
                                      FCorelli

Just keeping track of how good people are at prognostications.

Andy

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HA! Wrong-o. I do not have any idea or feeling or even an personal bias as to which way a shutdown will go. Both sides give reasons that sound 100% correct to me.

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Ok sorry about that I will remove you.

Shutdown                            Yes                                   No
                                      Goofy                               Andy
                                      David
                                     

Just keeping track of how good people are at prognostications.

Andy

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Yes. There will be a shutdown. Shortly after a compromise, which the loonies won’t like and they’ll oust Johnson.

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Thanks BJ, I will put you on the side of the shutdown.

Shutdown                            Yes                                   No
                                      Goofy                               Andy
                                      David
                                      BJ

Just keeping track of how good people are at prognostications.

Andy

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Brief shutdown like bj is saying.

The caucus will split and some will want a deal. I do not know how many hours there will be a shutdown.

They split last time.

The issue is our credit rating. This week the rating agencies are figuring out how to ding us.

The yields will go up in the marketplace.

This is a huge problem. You have to be pretty dopey to send this problem on down the line. And for what? There is no economic agenda.

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Keep in mind, the Speaker decides what comes to the floor for a vote. The last Speaker reached across the aisle to build a consensus, and was fired for his trouble. Now, there is a “true believer”, instead of a cynic, at the helm. Will he risk his cush job to get anything done, other than his extremist agenda?

Steve

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Shutdown for me.

Without going into too much detail that i’ve posted before, a shutdown accomplishes one of the fiscal goals of the far right - cutting federal spending.

With the speaker now a member of the far right, I don’t see a reason for him to work that hard to avoid a shutdown.

—Peter

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There was a maneuver the Democrats could take to get to a vote. But it escapes me what it was. There is a way to get a vote.

You mean start-up the plantations. Jefferson would not let go of how regal he was. He died owing a lot of money. His slave labor could not keep up with his spending.