Feb 28th: +1.6% YTD (down from a YTD peak of +19.5% mid February)
Practically all gains for the year wiped out in the last 2 weeks.
A painful couple of weeks with a very fast retrenchment. I have to climb another ~55% to reach my portfolio ATH.
Thematically, I’m principally invested in:
eCommerce (20%) - Shopify, MercadoLibre, Global e-Online & SEA
AI & Cloud Infrastructure (20%) - Cloudflare, Pure Storage, Nvidia, Nebius, Astera Labs, Micron & SuperMicro
Software (SaaS/DevOp/Data analytics) (30%) - Palantir, Datadog, Snowflake, GitLab, Monday, Samsara & MongoDB
Cybersecurity (10%) - Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Rubrik & SentinelOne
Fintech/Payments (9%) - SOFI, Toast, Robinhood, Upstart & Bill
AdTech (10%) - The Trade Desk & Reddit (ad community)
Top sliced some Palantir pre drop to add to Reddit and switched my Pagaya into Robinhood and switched some Nebius into ALAB.
Considering trimming Datadog, TTD & Palantir further as well as Pure Storage. Would like to enter CRDO and at the right price get into AppLovin (rolling over from TTD) and Axon (perhaps from IOT if its share price gets too extreme).
Holdings in MDB, S, ZS, BILL and SMCI sit closest to the exit door along with NBIS which I am struggling to hold conviction in, (considering switching all NBIS into ALAB and Tesla).
Missed the window to sell or top slice TTD, IOT and Palantir further.
25+ holdings - bit of a long tail of 1-2% positions (made up of high conviction, scaling down and scaling up plays):
SHOP - 13%
PLTR
DDOG - 6%
NET - 5%
PSTG
MNDY
MELI
SNOW
TTD
IOT - 4%
CRWD
NVDA
UPST - 3%
ZS
MDB
SOFI
TSLA
GTLB
GLB - 2%
MU
HOOD
S
SE
RBRK
NBIS
RDDT
SMCI
TOST
ALAB - 1%
BILL
Watch list includes…
Lightspeed, Sezzle, ROOT, APP, AXON, FOUR, Arista, Fortinet, Palo Alto & CyberArk
As sectors, Cyber Security and SaaS have been strong - particularly profitable plays, software providers with rising consumption and ones with demonstrable AI use cases, as well as cloud infra software & services (incl. IaaS/PaaS/equipment/SaaS), DevOps, eCommerce, Payments & Fintech and AdTech.
I’m starting to feel we need to for once consider the potential for macro damage on a sector and company basis. With the prevailing politics and in particular economic and trade policies we could be facing some hyper volatility with big winners and losers and not necessarily driven by innate company consideration.
I’m thinking seeking out growth companies with defensive qualities (cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity and consumption based rather than seat based models).might do better in these volatile and uncertain times.
Ant