March 31st: -13.8% YTD (down from a YTD peak of +19.5% mid February and March peak of -3.5%)
That was one hell of a swing in just 6 weeks.
A painful couple of weeks with a very fast retrenchment. I have to climb another ~80% to reach my portfolio ATH.
Thematically, I’m principally invested in:
eCommerce (20%) - Shopify, MercadoLibre, Global e-Online & SEA
AI & Cloud Infrastructure (20%) - Cloudflare, Pure Storage, Nvidia, Nebius, Astera Labs, Micron & SuperMicro
Software (SaaS/DevOp/Data analytics) (30%) - Palantir, Datadog, Snowflake, GitLab, Monday, Samsara & MongoDB
Cybersecurity (10%) - Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Rubrik & SentinelOne
Fintech/Payments (9%) - SOFI, Toast, Robinhood, Upstart & Bill
AdTech (10%) - The Trade Desk & Reddit (ad community)
No real trading activity to mention in March besides a top slice of ZS.
Considering trimming Palantir further and exiting Tesla. Would like to enter CRDO and at the right price get into AppLovin (rolling over from TTD - I don’t buy into the short thesis at this point) and Axon (perhaps from IOT if its share price recovers), perhaps even Transmedics.
Holdings in MDB, S, ZS, BILL and SMCI sit closest to the exit door along with NBIS which I am struggling to hold conviction in, (considering switching all NBIS into ALAB).
Missed the window to sell or top slice TTD, IOT and Palantir further.
25+ holdings - bit of a long tail of 1-2% positions (made up of high conviction, scaling down and scaling up plays):
SHOP - 13%
PLTR - 8%
DDOG - 6%
MELI
NET - 5%
PSTG
MNDY
MELI
SNOW
IOT
TTD - 4%
CRWD
NVDA
ZS - 3%
UPST
TSLA - 2%
SOFI
GLBE
MU
MDB
GTLB
SE
S
HOOD
RBRK
SMCI
TOST
NBIS - 1%
RDDT
ALAB
BILL
Watch list includes…
Lightspeed, Sezzle, ROOT, APP, AXON, FOUR, Arista, Transmedics, Fortinet, Palo Alto & CyberArk
As sectors, Cyber Security and SaaS have been strong - particularly profitable plays, software providers with rising consumption and ones with demonstrable AI use cases, as well as cloud infra software & services (incl. IaaS/PaaS/equipment/SaaS), DevOps, eCommerce, Payments & Fintech and AdTech.
The potential for macro damage on a sector and company basis is clearly having an impact. With the prevailing politics and in particular economic and trade policies we are facing some hyper volatility with big winners and losers and not necessarily driven by innate company consideration.
I’m thinking seeking out growth companies with defensive qualities (cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity and consumption based rather than seat based models), might do better in these volatile and uncertain times.
Ant