GH is done ~8% on big volume today. Other than the lockup expiration on 4/2/2019, is there any other reason? There are discussions of Ned Davis Report with a sell rating. I could not verify it. Is it true?
BEAT and TNDM are down on no news as well so who knows.
Could just be stock funds re-balancing at the end of a quarter. If so, should correct itself shortly.
Lockup expiration is today. Just remembered.
Could be someone getting out of healthcare and diagnostics. GH GHDX and DXCM all trading lower.
For what little it is worth, I started a small GH starter position today, as I suspect a fairly substantial part of the drop is fear about the IPO lockup expiration.
I may even look to add more later this week, possibly on Wednesday.
now long a smidgen of GH
Of the 13 cases in which an oncogenic fusion was detected in plasma by Resolution Bioscience’s test, the retrospective study showed 89% of patients with productive gene fusions and 75% of patients with non-productive fusions later responded to treatments with tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapies
So is this continued drop FUD-based, or lockup-based, or both?
Stock still up big YTD, but March gains were just wiped out.
Time for a toe-dip, or is this a falling knife?
FUD. Today’s drop probably somewhat due to general market sell-off. Follow the next 2 quarters closely though.
This is going to be a bumpy ride; theyre the leaders with a target on their back. If youre in it for the long term, you’ll be fine, short term, could get a bit uglier.
Still on my short list for biotechs; only biotechs I own are BPMC and TCDA. Watching GH, GKOS, & NVCR.
My thoughts? Stay away from bios/pharmas/medical stocks in general. Yes, they can provide lucrative gains but the truth is there is no “edge” to be had unless you are a true expert in the field. There are just too many moving parts and you’re kidding yourself if you think you really understand the competitive dynamics. It is much easier to understand the competitive dynamics for the SaaS/software stocks discussed here. These bios/pharma/medical stocks are like lotto tickets, and I can name 10 failures for every 1 home-run.
Below is a sampling of the companies with or working on liquid biopsy tests (this doesn’t even include academic institutions):
- CancerIntercept® (Pathway Genomics, San Diego, CA)
- CellMax-LBx (CellMax Life, Mountain View, CA)
- Circulogene Theranostics Personalized Gene Profile (Circulogene, Birmingham, AL)
- ClearID® Solid Tumor Cancer Panel (Cynvenio Biosystems, Westlake Village, CA)
- Colvera™ (Clinical Genomics Pathology, Bridgewater, NJ)
- FoundationACT® (Foundation Medicine, Cambridge, MA)
- GeneStrat® (Biodesix, Boulder, CO)
- Guardant360® (Guardant Health, Redwood, CA)
- LiquidGx™ NGS (Admera Health, South Plainfield, NJ)
- OncoBEAM™ Panel (Sysmex Inostics, Mundelein, IL)
- Oncotype SEQ™ Liquid Select (Genomic Health, Redwood City, CA)
- PlasmaSelect™-R 64 (Personal Genome Diagnostics, Baltimore, MD)
- Target Selector™ (Biocept, San Diego, CA)
I think cancer sequencing service will likely be commoditized in 5 years. Guardant Health is clearly the first mover. But the barrier to entry for liquid biopsy is not as high as drug development. Getting FDA approval for in vitro diagnostics is also not as challenging. The TAM of liquid biopsy market will rapidly expand, but the number of players will too. Most of them will use the sequencing platform provided by Illumina (ILMN), which will likely enjoy growth re-acceleration during liquid biopsy boom in the near future.
“During the gold rush its a good time to be in the pick and shovel business” ? Mark Twain