What is bull case on GOOGLE besides great Co, great economics, attractive price?
Hmm, that’s a pretty good case isn’t it?
They typically trade in a range of 5x to 8x TTM revenue; if you can buy at 5x and sell at 8x you will do very well. TTM Revenue is $283B, so its trading at $1520B which is 5.3x. I am confident we will see 8x sometime in the next 5 years (at a higher revenue as well).
A potential target : $400B x 8 = $3200B, lets call it a double from current levels.
tecmo
…
I bought a few shares of PHYS yesterday with some dividends I received in that account.
For $14.5499.
Interesting because my limit order was for $14.55, so TDAmeritrade got me a better price than I expected. I bought so few shares that the difference does not really matter.
<Heck, we’re not even in bear market territory yet, as least for the S&P. (The Nas is off 25%, so, yeah.)>
It feels like 2008, when the market was very nervous, there were frequent swings of 2-5% a day
Added a bit:
GOOGL
BRKB
AAPL
KMX
ATVI (new buy)
10% Cash
I see GOOGL as being the first choice ahead of BRK…WHY? What is the variant perception?
Some say it is the new ATM because it is the market and will be sold
Been buying both GOOGL and MSFT over the last 3 weeks or so, nibbling on the way down.
I’m currently underwater on both, more so on GOOGL, the larger position.
RMarkic
I think the bear thesis is companies like Google is paying employee compensation using a lot of stocks, so now they will need to issue even more to keep employees from leaving to startups etc.
But I think the real reason is some funds are getting investors withdraw. Maybe the tiger fund. Maybe it’s liquidating.
I think the bear thesis is companies like Google is paying employee compensation using a lot of stocks, so now they will need to issue even more to keep employees from leaving to startups etc.
I think this is valid - but not as much as it would seem for google, basically any stock grants / RSU’s in the last X years are worthless, you can get a new position at a new company which refreshes grants at the current price when you start, so you’ll get RSU’s like 100% of your salary, which have value and are more likely to pay off since you moved after the drop. Google really hasn’t dropped that much though, so the options should be sorta okay-ish, you’re not even really losing a year at this point. I’ve noticed that software developers are extremely greedy though, so you never know. Amazon you’re losing 2 years and have very modest growth for 5 years for example. Also, all these SaaS stocks are going to feel this 10x.
If anyone wants to get really crazy, UPST cash secured puts are very juicy at the moment, given the pile on and cratering stock price.
For example, if you were to sell the May-22 35 PUT for 4.85 (its current bid), you would have to put up 30.15 per share but get a net return of 9.55% on your money (for an annualized rate of 2688%) at risk. If UPST closed below 30.15, you would experience a loss, and if it closed above 39.85 you would have been better off buying the stock rather than selling the PUT.
And that is to hold it for 10 days. Yes, this is pure gambling, nothing else. But if you think the market is over-reacting to a company that is sitting on 1B in cash and actually making money, its an interesting gamble.
–G
Recession - I don’t like to make macro forecasts. But it seems fairly possible that there might be a recession of some size. What does it mean for the direction of the market if there is a recession?
I don’t know.
By definition, recession means two quarters of declining GDP. That means a significant hit to corporate earnings for a while. Stock prices will likely take a hit. Plus businesses that struggled to survive two years of Covid may very well fold. Unemployment will rise.
Yes, inflation will probably moderate. But at very high cost in terms of pain for the average taxpayer.
Still no table pounding buys despite carnage? SAD