AST SpaceMobile - Thoughts?

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Yesterday I started a small position in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), using funds from selling out of GEVO and CRMD. I hadn’t heard of them until yesterday but it seems they’ve garnered a good deal of attention, as they were up 360% last year. After reading their investor presentation, I decided to get in despite it being at a really high valuation currently.

  • They are more or less the Starlink for 4G/5G mobile service, rather than Wifi, but in the very beginning stages. They have 3,800 approved or pending patents. They work with the telcos to provide coverage during coverages lapses and/or in remote areas.
  • Q3 2025 was more or less their first real revenue generating quarter, jumping from $1.16M in revenue to $14.74M in revenue, at 62.6% Gross Margin.
    • Their guide is for $50-75M in 2H 2025 revenue, meaning at the midpoint they would 4x their revenue QoQ. They have not announced their reporting date but Koyfin has them on March 3rd.
  • They lost $122.9M last quarter. I assume this will continue for a while as they get satellites in orbit, and economies of scale kick in.
  • They have $1B in contracted revenue commitments from 50+ Mobile Network Operators across the globe, which cover 3B+ customers. Unclear on the duration of those contracts or when they kick in.
    • The $14.7M of Q3 revenue was primarily driven by government contracts based on contract milestones.
  • They currently have 6 satellites in orbit, with a goal of 45-60 satellites by the end of 2026. Satellites 7-19 are in various stages of development, with #7 launching imminently.

It’s currently at 160x EV/Sales, so it’s pricey right now, but that will come down a ton as they ramp. If they hit top end or beat their guide, I could imagine adding to the current starter position.

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Any information out there on who they are launching with? Not heard of them on the Rocket Lab launches, so maybe going with SpaceX?

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It seems their current satellites and next batch will be launched by SpaceX. They also have launches scheduled with the Indian Space Research Organization, and have a multiyear launch agreement with Blue Origin that begins this year.

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I have followed it for a while and consider it a complete meme stock at this point ( I should’ve bought back at $20 and just held and sold at $100). It seems to me that they will lose to Starlink long term. Starlink has already started rolling out with T-mobile and I think my 2 problems are:

  1. I am not sure what the actual TAM is. It seems much more expensive relative to current AT&T and Verizon infrastructure to launch and maintain the satellites. So ASTS connectivity will only be used in exigent use cases.

  2. I cannot find any path to profitability from here. They bleed cash and will have to raise money and only have 6 satellites in orbit currently. Compared to Starlink, this is paltry and it seems Starlink will win due to scale.

I could be wildly wrong about this as I don’t know as much as I should. Please let me know if I am obviously wrong with anything here.

This article is one that I read back when thinking through this: Elon Musk tries to make Apple and mobile carriers regret choosing Starlink rivals - Ars Technica

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@moselmeister Thanks for weighing in, those seem like very valid risks. That article states late 2027 for Starlink’s potential rollout, which would be a thesis-killer if it comes to fruition. I’ll keep watching it and likely be keeping this as a small position for now.

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Sorry to talk you out of it. The stock price went parabolic this week. It seems that $ASTS was added to the golden dome list of vendors for the US GOV. I am not sure what the expected revenue is from this addition, but it seems like another feather in their cap. I am definitely not buying now, but the market is saying it’s a good company.

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I’m still holding. I’m not likely to add or sell until earnings, but it’s nice to see some positive news come out this week.

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I‘m in ASTS for over two years now and bought my first shares in the $3s. I always thought about bringing ASTS to the board, but as it is not matching a Saul stock, I did not. But I can highly recommend looking into the extensive DD TheKookReport shared openly, who is seriously wanting to have a deeper look into ASTS. https://www.kookreport.com/

I can see that @moselmeister is bringing the common misconception to the board. Have a look into the DD and see for yourself. Feel free to get back to me.

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