Are we still... (the "Are we still" thread)

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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talking about how MNDY stock price has really held up well?

Or have we moved on?

How about waiting on DDOG to double, because it has the best metrics?

At some point, I wonder if Saul will revert to the system that made him 25-30% for a couple decades, vs solely chasing SaaS.

At this point, I would think simple math would dispute the concept that the hypergrowth investing model of SaaS/cloud/tech hasn’t necessarily outperformed investing in other stocks. What is the proof that the (more expensively-valued) SaaS stocks with the best metrics have outperformed other stocks, whether they be about malls (SPG) or phones (AAPL) or ad-tech (TTD) or global ecomm (GLBE/SHOP) or gpu’s (NVDA), or industry of death (SCI)?

When we emerge out of this bear market, I fully expect DDOG/MNDY and others to do well. But why will their stock prices (not the company or their metrics) necessarily do better? What is the science/math that proves that?

I think about companies like SMAR or MDB that are starting to look like they haven’t gone anywhere for years.

Go ahead and compare a chart on % gained past few years, of SNOW, DDOG, TTD, AAPL, SMAR, and MDB.

TTD was the no-brainer, in hindsight. Never had the greatest metrics, wasn’t pure SaaS, and Bear and others pushed back on it in 2018. Yet they are still double the Jan 2020 price. Which was already 5x the 2018 price. While other stocks are saying hello to 2018 and 2019 prices.

Of course, I feel bad for the poster that had TTD as about half their port. I still think it hits $32 or lower before the bear mkt is through.

Dreamer

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I agree all the above going lower but had to predict to what level and when.

I’m guessing buy at the price it’s at when you think the macro/recession is at it’s lowest point.

Do you think TTD hits 32 because it’s pre-pandemic high was $32.38 , based on fundamentals or just gut feeling?

Were currently going through National parks in a RV and just came through Yellowstone, The analogy I’m stuck on is I’m waiting on Old Faithfull to erupt but in this case the market going to the down side. The eruption has an estimated time but can be 10 min in either direction. I feel like thinks are bubbling and getting ready for that eruption down. Of course I could be wrong and today was a good buying opportunity,

CPI on Thursday 10/13 that will probably dictate the market near term.

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I sold at split-adjusted $27. In Jan 2020. After having cost-basis in the split-adjusted $4’s from 2017-2018 entries.

So I already considered it over-valued then.
I am simply waiting for it to get “down” to a previously thought-of overvalued price. $32 is a bit of a gut feeling for entry, but could easily see the $20’s.

Side note: just re-listened to good audiobook from Dennis E. Taylor called Outland, in which Yellowstone has a super-volcano eruption. So, like, watch where you step.

Dreamer

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Great point: the eruption your watching and waiting for (Old Faithfull aka the FED) may not be your biggest problem (volcano eruption or in Yellowstone a more likely analogy is a major earthquake aka nuclear weapons). Obviously we all hope it never gets to that point.

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Are we still acting like Saul’s board came up with SentinelOne as an investment?

Or do we (and by “we” I mean “you all”) remember that a certain dreamer brought them up, pre-IPO, only to have them dismissed as real competition to the mighty Crowdstrike?

Anyways…
Image of Anyways,

I read the last S transcript of their ER, looked again at current mkt cap, and while the biggest negative about them is their lack of profitability, they are flush with cash (can handle burn for a while) I would expect they pay more attention to expenses with the macro environment, and security is sort of like CTV…hard to deny the trend and I think most companies still have further to go on their security investments. IT security is akin to insurance…we hate paying it, but more and more we understand we need it, and it is much worse to have a breach and deal with it later.

Dreamer

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from my Feb 2020 post above, I mentioned S a year plus before they IPO’d.

Also this little nugget, again, largely pre-covid collapse and V-shaped nonsensical surge:

“Good luck out there to ZM holders. You may hit $40b mkt cap and then when the traders stop making money it may retrace to under $15b”

ZM actually hit at least $80b mkt cap.
Now at $20b mkt cap, and the trend isn’t looking great.

Nostradreamer

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“Not including valuation as part of an evaluation of a stock (not the company…the stock) as being a good-to-great buy that will bring in, or surpass, the CAGR you want, is akin to evaluating pro athletes but ignoring their age.”

"Commonsense says growth stocks under $3b with P/S under 15 have a better chance to drive higher share price returns than growth stocks over $20b with P/S over 40-60. Just because the latter have higher growth rates (for now - not forever) doesn’t mean they will be good investments.

I am too busy to argue this anymore. Good luck all."

That was from me…3 years ago.

Dreamer

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Saul needs to change his board to Sauls trading discussions because this is not investing what he is doing. Its basicly momentum trading…

he has the intention to hold a share indefinitely but practice shows that it is only the case for 2-4 quarters :slight_smile:

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I think everyone reading this board understands that. But we’re just random folks on the internet.

  1. Momentum investing in a bull market can be lucrative.
  2. Momentum investing in an insane bull market can be insanely lucrative.
  3. Momentum investing in a bear market can be, um, tough.

However, if Dear Leader proclaims #2 is the result of investing genius, we must not disagree.

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