I have been a member of the Fool since the 90’s. I learned how to start investing here. Then I investigated other services and learned some more. I have done well but after searching for ways to better manage a portfolio I found this board. I knew I needed to concentrate my positions but I was always worried about risk. Learning how to analyze companies here has given me new confidence in reducing positions. Thanks to all who contribute to this board!
Sell in May and Go Away? I think not! My portfolio rose 14.47% in June and is up 18.68% for 2021!
Since discovering this board in April of 2021 I worked on reducing the number of positions. I have gone from over 70 to 20! If other newbies are wondering how to get started, this is what I did.
First, read everything in the knowledgebase and then read it again. Take notes on what sticks out to you. For me, it was revenue growth. I set a rule that anything not growing over 40% needs a serious reason why it was in my portfolio. The Covid quarters made things a little challenging since some companies had enormous temporary sales growth or had a temporary problem that might be resolved as the world re-opened. At any rate, this allowed me to reduce companies to under 30.
Next, I took the top companies on this board and did my own analysis. Then I started analyzing the rest of the companies in my portfolio, selling the ones who did not make the cut. This took a couple of months and I am still continuing, refining my rules. Here is what is left at the end of June.
Ticker Name June% May% MTD YTD CRWD Crowdstrike 15.61% 17.49% 13.13% 18.64% DDOG Datadog 9.92% 10.28% 14.31% 5.73% SNOW Snowflake 7.75% 8.73% 1.58% -14.07% ROKU Roku 6.34% 5.39% 32.46% 38.32% UPST Upstart 6.26% 3.93% -15.73% 206.50% NET Cloudflare 6.13% 9.66% 28.98% 39.28% DOCU Docusign 5.73% Sold 38.66% 25.76% SHOP Shopify 5.53% 5.07% 17.55% 29.07% FUTU Futu 5.30% 3.99% 25.88% 291.45% ABNB Airbnb 4.98% 2.43% 9.07% 4.32% FVRR Fiverr 4.64% 4.50% 18.11% 24.29% MELI Mercadolibre 3.81% 2.08% 14.66% -7.01% PINS Pinterest 3.78% 1.35% 20.90% 19.80% FUBO Fubotv 3.15% 4.13% 35.26% 14.68% SNAP Snap 2.28% 2.84% 9.69% 36.09% CVNA Carvana 2.08% 2.09% 13.86% 26.00% GBTC Bitcoin 2.00% 2.33% -1.36% -6.84% TLRY Tilray 1.75% 1.85% 8.46% 118.89% CURLF Curaleaf 1.63% New -4.41% 17.71% ETHE Ethereum 1.21% 0.87% -11.27% 44.32% NARI Inari Medical Sold 0.49% 7.28% 6.86% ZI ZoomInfo Sold 1.54% 19.03% 8.17% BILI Bilibili Sold 2.38% 13.68% 42.14% CHPT ChargePoint Sold 2.09% 42.67% -13.32% TTD Trade Desk Sold 2.70% 31.53% -3.42% SAM Boston Beer Sold 1.62% -3.53% 2.67%
Portfolio Return (Monthly)
Jan 6.11% Feb -0.15% Mar -5.42% Apr 1.29% May 2.14% Jun 14.47% YTD 18.68%
June Portfolio Changes
I sold NARI. The combination of my limited understanding of the product combined with the limited TAM led me to this.
I sold SAM. I love the product but I feel the rapid sales growth in the last year was mostly Covid related and it will slow down.
I trimmed UPST when it spiked into the high 170’s. Added to PINS and ROKU.
I started a position in CURLF (Weed related so no discussion here)
I trimmed FUBO and NET on spikes. Added to FUTU.
I sold TTD, there are just better growth stocks. Added to MELI and PINS.
UPST drops back to the 120’s, so I trimmed a little SHOP and NET and added to it.
I sold CHPT. Love the company but I got to thinking how much it would cost to expand and didn’t like it.
Bear’s excellent analysis of DOCU convinced me to get back in. I sold BILI because of low gross margins and put it all in DOCU.
I sold ZI, I just have a bad feeling about it. Probably because I don’t like telemarketing.
NET is pricey so I trimmed it from 8.5% to 6%. Put the cash into ABNB.
June Company Notes
My company became a customer of this product in May. I couldn’t imagine ever uninstalling it and explaining to management why. I would happily pay them double what they charge.
Expensive but it keeps performing.
Expensive but I see the possibility of enormous exponential growth here.
Same reasoning as SNOW.
I thought it was going to slow down because of the end of Covid. It appears I was wrong. I’m back in.
I have been investing in this since the IPO. In my opinion, it is the best product in the category and I have tried them all. They keep finding ways to keep users engaged and monetizing them. New TCL TV product launch in the UK. New content from Quibi, Saban movies. The launch of Roku Originals in late May drove a record two weeks of streaming for The Roku Channel. They even monetize the buttons on the remote! Apple TV+ bought a button this month.
Amazing how this one continues to grow. New integrations with Facebook and Google could be huge. At Shopify Unite, they announced that they are cutting fees to small developers to zero. That will hurt short term revenue but I like the long term strategy of this.
Brokerage in Hong Kong. I wouldn’t normally invest in something like this but the growth is ridiculous. Triple digit growth in latest year (223%) and quarter (344% YoY & 81% Seq) and projected to continue!
This one continues to surprise me. The growth and margins are fantastic. Could be temporary from Covid but management says it is continuing.
Impressive growth but also impressive is how they keep fighting off competition from big players like Amazon and Sea.
Not a user but my wife loves it. Another one to watch to see how much growth was Covid related.
Keeping a short leash on this one but I see the possibilities of integrating gambling while watching a game.
Fantastic projected growth and gross margins. Took a hit last year because of Covid. Should be a big winner for the reopening. Will the Delta variant delay the travel recovery?
Not a user but my kids love it and use it daily. Growth is projected over 40% annually for 4 years. I know that it is hard to predict that far out but still.
Low margin business but the growth is great and the stock keeps performing.
- Each position must have the probability of tripling in 1-3 years.
- Growth must be over 40%. Some exceptions if temporary problems but no turnarounds!
- You must believe in the company’s prospects!
- Trim positions over 16%. Trim positions on temporary spikes
- High gross margins are important, but sales growth is more important.