**Port Return** Jan +7.3% YTD Feb +6.7% YTD Mar +2.0% YTD Apr +9.8% YTD May +12.4% YTD **Port Changes** Ticker Curr% Apr Mar Feb Jan CRWD 18.7% 14.6% 15.8% 12.9% 14.5% DDOG 17.7% 14.7% 12.9% 8.6% 0.0% DOCU 9.9% 10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 11.3% NET 9.0% 9.8% 11.8% 12.5% 15.2% SNOW 7.9% 9.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% LSPD 6.1% 5.2% 4.5% 1.3% 0.0% UPST 5.2% 5.3% 6.1% 3.9% 0.0% TWLO 3.7% 3.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% TWOU 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 2.5% ASAN 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 6.5% 4.4% ZM 0.1% 3.6% 6.4% 13.9% 7.2% cash 20.7% 6.2% 5.9% 16.6% 32.6% **MTD and YTD performance for each holding** Ticker Mo Ch YTD Ch CRWD 6.5% 4.9% DDOG 6.2% -7.5% DOCU -9.6% -9.3% NET -3.2% 8.0% SNOW 2.8% -15.4% LSPD 3.1% 2.3% UPST 36.0% 263.7% TWLO -8.6% -0.7% TWOU -7.2% -9.0% ASAN 10.4% 24.5% ZM 3.7% -1.7%
A lot changed in May. I cut Etsy, Bandwidth, and Magnite loose, and almost sold out of Zoom and Asana as well. I let the cash position swell back up, as I’m having trouble finding companies other than Crowdstrike and Datadog that seem like fat pitches. But I did add quite a bit to these two. I also added to Lightspeed and Twilio, and even a tiny bit to Docusign although it’s hard to tell since the stock was down 10% in May. I trimmed Cloudflare slightly, Snowflake moderately, and Upstart significantly.
10/31/2020: $123.84 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/04/2020: $167.26 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/31/2020: $211.82 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
01/29/2021: $215.80 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
05/28/2021: $222.15 (Market Cap Approx: $53b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
Retaking the number one spot which it has held so many months is Crowdstrike. CRWD was languishing well below $200 in the first half of May, and I couldn’t resist adding back to the position. Very few companies are growing like them, showing increased operating leverage, innovating as fast…basically doing everything I could ask. Can’t wait to see what they say on the earnings report this Thursday.
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
The reason I’m spending all this real estate on these price / mkt cap / revenue recaps is so I (we) can keep tabs on how the companies grow. You can literally see in the revenue how these companies are becoming “bigger” (vague term used intentionally). The price doesn’t always follow directly, as we know, but ebbs and flows at Mr Market’s whim. Worth watching.
At any rate, Datadog seems like it is (or is rapidly becoming) a company worth more than $31 billion. At least that’s how I see it, and my position reflects that.
11/30/2020: 227.88 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.164b)
12/31/2020: $222.30 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
01/29/2021: $232.89 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
04/30/2021: $222.94 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
05/28/2021: $201.62 (Market Cap Approx: $42b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
Here’s an example of a company the market seems to have forgotten. You can see that the stock price has just bounced around in the low $200’s, but revenue is rapidly increasing. I know revenue isn’t everything, but it’s a good place to start. Docusign’s revenue growth has accelerated to 50%+, and I expect that will continue for another quarter or two. It will eventually settle back to the 40’s, but that’s stellar considering the size of the revenue base. Of course I expect a beat and raise on revenue when they report this Thursday. I’ll be watching billings closely too – it seems to be a good leading indicator. Their 37% lowball guide certainly hasn’t excited the market. I’ll be happy with something over 40%, but 45%+ would be a huge beat and very welcome. Billings guidance for the next quarter will also be worth watching, although of course they will lowball it – higher than 37% would be a nice uptick, though.
10/31/2020: $51.97 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $349m)
12/04/2020: $77.35 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
12/31/2020: $75.99 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
01/29/2021: $76.66 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
02/26/2021: $73.97 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
03/31/2021: $70.26 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
04/30/2021: $84.74 (Market Cap Approx: $26b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
05/28/2021: $82.06 (Market Cap Approx: $25b, TTM Revenue: $478m)
I continued to trim, ever so slightly. It’s just hard to see this stock running up much in the near future, given Cloudflare is not growing as fast as the best of the best, and that revenue is still catching up to justify a ~$25b mkt cap. I will keep a large position, though, of course – I have nothing but effusive praise for the company’s innovation and steady performance.
03/31/2021: $229.28 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
04/30/2021: $231.59 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
05/28/2021: $238.03 (Market Cap Approx: $71b, TTM Revenue: $712m)
A couple months ago I realized this company was “bigger” than revenue made it look: https://boards.fool.com/snow-what-i-was-missing-34787302.asp… When they reported this past Thursday (5/26), we saw more evidence of this. They did what they said they would. Revenue guide is for over $1 billion this year…unfortunately they barely raised it. I think they’re just being conservative, and maybe the raise will come in future quarters, but to be fair, we need to see that from a company valued like this. 90% revenue growth is of course phenomenal, but when you’re valued at 2x the PS ratio of even Crowdstrike…even 90% growth might not be enough to move the stock. That’s why I trimmed instead of adding. I do not plan to trim more, and will likely add back if the stock gets hit at any point.
02/26/2021: $68.42 (Market Cap Approx: $8.1b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
05/28/2021: $71.99 (Market Cap Approx: $8.9b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
It’s funny to see how the stock visits wild places mid-month, but always seems to close the month around $70. I loved the report, but I’m still happy with a mid-sized position, as this one is a little outside my usual comfort zone and circle of competency. They are a whiz at acquisitions, and are rolling up the industry rapidly, and I think they’ll continue to thrive – and become “bigger” more rapidly for the acquisitions. But that extra complexity will probably keep me from making it a large position.
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
05/28/2021: $148.22 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
Earnings were phenomenal (esp the 20% FY guidance raise), and the stock has reacted in somewhat manic ways. I added a ton, and have trimmed that back and more. I still have questions about Upstart long term, and am more happy with it as a mid-sized position. I frequently remember that there are many risks here.
Small and Tiny positions
Twilio is just so solid. I can’t say it excites me, but I’d rather keep my money there than add more cash.
2U and Asana are just radar level.
Zoom I almost exited, but I kept a few call options – I have no idea what to expect Tuesday when they report earnings.
I sold Etsy because they guided flat. That was very surprising and a bit weird. I understand they’ve had tail winds and I did not expect them to grow nearly as fast as they have been…but flat? I don’t know…this one goes back into the “prove it” pile, to steal a saying from StockNovice.
I sold Bandwidth because it just didn’t seem to be making steady progress. Growth seemed to be settling back (to 30%? 20-something?) and gross margin got worse, not better. I just lost interest.
Magnite was a little dalliance. It’s an interesting story, but the numbers don’t seem to back it up.
It’s been a wild year, and I can honestly say I’m just happy to be up rather than down. Plus 12% seems basically flat after we got so spoiled last year, but I’ll take it!
Hope everyone is doing well and having a good Spring. I hope June will be happy and prosperous for us all.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2020-3…
Jan 2021: https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-012021-347…
Feb 2021: https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-022021-347…
Mar 2021: https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-032021-347…
Apr 2021: https://boards.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-042021-348…