Be Patient with Twilio

Many may remember Okta a few quarters ago tanked after their earnings call but recovered and added significantly after their Developer Conference where they announce new revenue streams.

Twilio has their Signal Developer Conference August 6 and 7.
https://signal.twilio.com

This will certainly generate excitement.

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During the CC Jeff teased about the Signal Developer Conference, saying that “our developer and customer conference takes place August 6 and 7 at the Muskogee Center here in downtown San Francisco. We have some exciting announcements ahead.”

Wonder what that could be?

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Shades of price action with Shopify perhaps? SHOP languished for a year before the public noticed and started bidding up the valuation again, at around the same size as SHOP was back then too (~15b). And Twilio has been growing much faster than Shopify was at the same stage (with around the same gross margins)

Shopify does seem to have a much larger TAM though, and commerce is an easier story to digest than programmable communication for B2B

On the other hand, SQ has been beat down even though it’s growing at a higher rate than Shopify, so who knows - anything could happen in the short term

Shopify does seem to have a much larger TAM though, and commerce is an easier story to digest than programmable communication for B2B

TWLO is B2C communication king, not sure about B2B…
And communication is huge huge market on global scale… and much higher margin business than warehouse and logistics management that SHOP is expanding into.

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TWLO is B2C communication king, not sure about B2B…
And communication is huge huge market on global scale… and much higher margin business than warehouse and logistics management that SHOP is expanding into.

These are totally different businesses, both of which I own, and I don’t believe there is anything to be gleaned from comparing the two. However, since it has already been done I will point out, Shopify’s and Twilio’s gross margins are fairly similar. While the specific part of Shopify’s business managing inventory, warehousing and logistics may not yield a high margin itself, there are plenty of ways Shopify can capitalize on their merchants success.

Shopify is actually empowering any business that wants to sell a product in the modern internet world and profiting from it. That sounds cheesy, but it really is true. Gone are the worries about Chinese drop shippers making up too large a percentage of revenues.

The international growth will be very large. Shopify is separating itself as the de facto company for small/medium businesses, really all businesses, that want to protect their brand. They have an enormous opportunity ahead of them.

Shopify and Twilio both seem to have great opportunities ahead.

A.J.

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I think that would be the Moscone Center, if in SF.

Not hugely relevant unless one is attending in person.

But at least I got to post on this great board!

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