My 2021 Portfolio Performance as of
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Positions (You can click on the link at the bottom of this post to last month if you want to see what has changed.)
Ticker Curr% Mo Ch YTD Ch
CRWD 15.8% -15.5% -13.8%
DDOG 12.9% -12.7% -15.3%
NET 11.8% -5.0% -7.5%
DOCU 10.5% -10.7% -8.9%
ETSY 7.9% -8.4% 13.4%
BAND 7.6% -20.0% -17.5%
ZM 6.4% -14.0% -4.8%
UPST 6.1% 96.3% 216.2%
SNOW 5.0% -11.7% -18.5%
LSPD 4.5% -8.2% -10.8%
TWLO 4.1% -13.3% 0.7%
ASAN 1.1% -17.5% -3.3%
TWOU 0.4% -3.5% -4.4%
cash 5.9%
Well, most everything I own lost ground in March. Because of the cash position I had which is now down below 6%, and because of UPST, I am still barely positive for the year: up 2%. I’m up to 13 positions, although the bottom two are extremely small.
Crowdstrike (CRWD) 15.8%, up from 12.9%
10/31/2020: $123.84
12/4/2020: $167.26
12/31/2020: $211.82 Market Cap Approx: $50b
01/29/2021: $215.80 Market Cap Approx: $51b
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
Crowdstrike reported a totally dominant quarter on March, but that wasn’t enough to overcome the environment we’re in. The stock went down as low as (just under) $170 – and I have added a bunch! I’m happy with an oversized position, because this company is growing faster than anything. Yes, the PS ratio is around 50, but we know how fast that can come down as revenue grows ~75% YoY.
Datadog (DDOG) 12.9%, up from 8.8%
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
I decided this month, especially as DDOG fell to around $75 at times, that this is now my #2 highest conviction position. I’m confident revenue will re-accelerate in the next couple quarters. DDOG used to be the most expensive dog around, but with a PS under 50 now, it has come back to the pack. A good spot to get in, and so I went in with the big guns.
Cloudflare (NET) 11.8%, down from 12.5% last month
10/31/2020: $51.97
12/4/2020: $77.35
12/31/2020: $75.99 Market Cap Approx: $23b
01/29/2021: $76.66 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
02/26/2021: $73.97 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
03/31/2021: $70.26 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
Cloudflare didn’t do anything wrong to drop a tiny bit – it just got passed. I trimmed only a very small amount. Like CRWD and DDOG, this one still sports a PS of 50, so don’t let anyone tell you these stocks are cheap. But with a Market cap of just over 20 billion, this company’s value can grow for years to come if their revenues keep growing at around 50% YoY…and just think, there’s at least the possibility of acceleration as well.
Docusign (DOCU) 10.5%, down from 11.1%
10/31/2020: $202.25
12/4/2020: $243.22
12/31/2020: $222.30 Market Cap Approx: $47b
01/29/2021: $232.89 Market Cap Approx: $49b
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
Once again, I didn’t buy or sell any DOCU this month. They had a great report on March 11th, and I feel as good about them as ever. I didn’t add, because I’m happy with this large position as it is. Plus, I was busy adding to CRWD and DDOG instead.
Etsy (ETSY) 7.9%, up from 3.4%
10/31/2020: $121.59
12/4/2020: $155.03
12/31/2020: $177.91 Market Cap Approx: $24b
01/29/2021: $199.09 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $1.378b)
02/26/2021: $220.27 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $1.725b)
03/31/2021: $201.67 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $1.725b)
As I reflected on the massive quarter Etsy reported in February, I realized Etsy needed to be a larger position. I got to add at some great prices in March. Personally, I still believe Etsy is being overlooked and mis-priced. It’s growing as fast as anything, and very profitable, and yet the PS ratio is mid-teens? I know it might slow some, but it will still grow pretty well, I think! What am I missing??
Bandwidth (BAND) 7.6%, up from 5.4%
12/31/2020: $153.67 Market Cap Approx: $4.2b
01/29/2021: $178.13 (Market Cap Approx: $4.9b, TTM Revenue: $292m)
02/26/2021: $158.36 (Market Cap Approx: $4.4b, TTM Revenue: $343m)
03/31/2021: $126.74 (Market Cap Approx: $3.5b, TTM Revenue: $343m)
So, BAND is undervalued. They have a PS ratio of about 10, and they’re going to have at least top-line hypergrowth this year (yes, it’s not all organic). I’m confident. I added.
Zoom (ZM) 6.4%, down from 13.9%
10/31/2020: $460.91
12/4/2020: $410.01
12/31/2020: $337.32 Market Cap Approx: $103b
01/29/2021: $372.07 Market Cap Approx: $114b
02/26/2021: $373.61 (Market Cap Approx: $114b, TTM Revenue: $1.957b)
03/31/2021: $321.29 (Market Cap Approx: $99b, TTM Revenue: $2.651b)
I trimmed a good bit. I wasn’t shocked, but a little disappointed with Zoom’s 3/1 earnings report. They guided, which is great, but they guided for basically no QoQ growth in 2021. Of course it’s a sandbag, and many have argued it’s comforting that they won’t decline, but it just isn’t aggressive. I want this company to keep innovating and changing the world. I think they might…I just need to see how the next couple quarters go before I consider adding back.
Upstart (UPST) 6.1%, up from 3.9%
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
This was a huge win in March, but I am still cautious with Upstart. There are more unknowns than knowns here. Will they grow other bank partners so Cross River Bank isn’t such a huge part of their business? Will other channels grow so that Credit Karma doesn’t refer basically 50% of their business? Will they grow as fast in 2022 as they say they’re going to in 2021? ($500m guidance!) We’ll just have to stay tuned. I’m more likely to trim at this level (or higher) than to add. A mid sized position seems like plenty.
Snowflake (SNOW) 5.0%, up from 0.0%
03/31/2021: $229.28 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
What the what? A company with around 600m in revenue trading for $68 billion? Well, trailing revenue probably isn’t the best way to look at Snowflake. I wrote about that here: https://discussion.fool.com/snow-what-i-was-missing-34787302.asp…
Lightspeed (LSPD) 4.5%, up from 1.3%
02/26/2021: $68.42 Market Cap Approx: $8.1b
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
I added some here, especially when it fell below $60. Lightspeed appears to be executing on a very sensible plan. This could lead to triple digit growth, or close, though not all organic. I can’t see it as a dominant beast of a company, though, so it will probably remain fairly small.
Twilio (TWLO) 4.1%, up from 0.0%
03/31/2021: $340.76 (Market Cap Approx: $57b, TTM Revenue: $1.762b)
Twilio has become a juggernaut. And they are so ingrained with their thousands of customers that they almost can’t help but continue to grow. I don’t know how big they can get, but the rate they’re growing makes me think, a lot bigger. I saw this as a good one to add to when the market was selling things off. It’s a “sleep well at night” type holding.
Two tiny positions
I didn’t sell out of anything in March, but I trimmed ASAN considerably when they reported and the stock actually went up a bit. I didn’t think their $34 stock price would survive this environment, and I was right. TWOU continues to be a tiny dalliance. I don’t have the energy to do a summary on these two.
Closing Thoughts
March has been tumultuous. But at least it’s been better for the world than March 2020 was! Let’s hope April showers are pleasant and May flowers are even more pleasant!
Honestly I feel very fortunate to still be ahead YTD. I know many are not, and I want to encourage you: these companies are strong. I don’t know if today’s strength was the beginning of a rally, or if we’ll have more rockiness for a while. But I am confident these companies will continue to thrive. You can see the market caps above – many of them are not small. But I believe they’re small compared to the cloud category crushers that these companies are becoming.
Bear
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2020-3…
Jan 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-012021-347…
Feb 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-022021-347…