Bear's Portfolio through 09/2023

Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.

September was a bad month, but that just gave me opportunities. I added to every position I own except Okta (I guess just because it was down the least), and I added a new position in ELF – more on that below.

A word about the positions I own:

Axon - This one is growing better than most and the multiple is lower than most and profitability is increasing. What’s not to love?

Samsara - At 43% YoY last quarter, this is our fastest growing SaaS company right now. It’s not cheap, but they sure do keep putting up the numbers. Profitable for the first time in Q2, and I expect much more will come soon.

Monday - Clocking in at 42% YoY growth last quarter, this is our faster SaaS grower after Samsara. Also they’ve gone from -16% FCF to +26% FCF margin in 4 quarters. That’s impressive. I don’t expect them to take over the world, but they appear to be executing really well.

Nvidia - As a ~$1.1 trillion company, Nvidia surely doesn’t have as much upside as many others here, but I think the risks are fairly low compared to others, too. It’s hard to imagine what could stop Nvidia, and their expected next year EPS makes them look not actually “expensive” on a fwd PE basis.

Okta - Left for dead when they had a really tough calendar 2022, and hasn’t bounced back (yet) although the numbers have been good in 2023. If they can keep growth in the 20’s, I think there’s tons of upside. If they grow in the teens next year, it’s still a bargain as long as EPS keeps climbing. They just raised this year’s guide from 0.93 to 1.20 and there’s still time to raise again in Q3 and then beat that. And net margin is only about 10%, so I could see them greatly expanding EPS next year too.

Procore - Niche SaaS (construction), and I think they’re still a little underappreciated by the market. Like Samsara, expanding profits are imminent.

Aehr Test Systems - They did $65m revenue last year and hope to best $100m this year. Nice ~30%ish profit margin. Things are looking promising for them this coming year and beyond, but man are they a tiny company.

ELF - E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) introduction - #10 by PaulWBryant

Celsius - How long can this torrid growth last? I really don’t know, but there seems to be a big market for energy drinks, and they seem like the “it” brand right now, taking massive share.

Wrapping up:

With the S&P down about 5% and the Nasdaq down around 6% in September, I’m happy with how my portfolio did. Who knows what the rest of the year will bring? I’m optimistic as always, but I’m also aware that anything can happen. I hope October is kind to you.


“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022

Jan 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2023

Feb 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2023

mid-Mar 2023: Bear's Mid-March Update

Mar 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2023

Apr 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 04/2023

May 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 05/2023

Jun 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 06/2023

Jul 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 07/2023 (and Aug 3)

Aug 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 08/2023