Bear's Portfolio through 11/2023

Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.

In my October review I concluded, “Just as in October Axon and Remitly did better than most stocks in the market, I hope the other stocks in my portfolio will be able to do the same (or even better) in the coming months. Perhaps through their earnings reports, they can remind the market that just like Axon and Remitly, they all have a lot of strength and growth and coming profits – that things are improving for these companies more rapidly than for most other companies. That’s the way I see it, anyway.”

Well, regarding Procore, I was wrong…the strength might ultimately be there in the long run, but they are forecasting a lot of weakness in the near future. Their 11/1 report was the most cautious (at times downright negative) I’ve ever heard from one of my companies. They kept using words like “disappointed” and “surprised.” They admitted they didn’t have much visibility, and didn’t push back when one analyst said growth might fall to the teens% next year. Yeah, I sold it all.

I trimmed most of my other positions in November. Most were up quite a bit at one point this month – some still are. More details below.

A word about the positions I own:

Axon - Their revenue is growing better than most and the multiple is lower than most and profitability is increasing. What’s not to love? Axon is not as volatile as most others I follow, so it was only up about 12% this month despite an incredible report. Fine by me; I only trimmed a tiny bit, and I’m happy to keep a very large position.

ELF - Though I trimmed since ELF was up almost 30% this month, I kept the position large. If they can continue growing like they are now, I could see it doubling in the next year or two.

Remitly - There has been a lot of good discussion of Remitly on the board, after the market sold them off pretty harshly on what I thought was a good report. Personally I think they’ll need to show some profits to start getting any respect. We’ll see if that happens. It was down about 20% this month. I added.

Monday - Following another great quarter reported on 11/13, Monday was up the most of any of my companies in November. I trimmed it considerably. I’ll probably keep it around this size unless it shoots to $200+, at which point I would see it as pretty much fully valued, and trim. If it sells off much I’d be willing to add a little.

Samsara - I trimmed quite a bit as it was up 20% this month before they reported this afternoon. Now it’s up more, but in this post I have included the price at EoD. I’ll probably have more to say about the report later.

Nvidia - I trimmed NVDA before their awesome report on 11/21. Inexplicably, it has fallen since the report. I’ve already added a little back, but I’ll keep it around 5% because honestly I don’t know how to value a company this big.

Celsius - I took some profits on Celsius. I’m happy with it as a smallish position. There seems to be a big market for energy drinks, and they seem like the “it” brand right now, taking massive share. Maybe I should have a larger position like I do with ELF, but I just don’t have as good a feeling about Celsius. I need to get around to trying the product! (I probably won’t with ELF.)

Aehr Test Systems - I actually trimmed a tiny amount when Aehr was up earlier this month. It ended the month down. I don’t think we’ll know much until they report again.

Wrapping up:

As you can tell by my mostly smallish positions, I’m presently not seeing much (other than Axon and ELF) that I believe merits concentrating into. And by my large cash position you can tell that I’m not finding new companies worth owning…though I admit try to set the bar high. Of course, I probably won’t ever own many more than this anyway. It’s hard enough to find 8 or 10 that I feel great about.

Happy December – hope you all have a chance to spend time with loved ones!


“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022

Jan 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2023

Feb 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2023

mid-Mar 2023: Bear's Mid-March Update

Mar 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2023

Apr 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 04/2023

May 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 05/2023

Jun 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 06/2023

Jul 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 07/2023 (and Aug 3)

Aug 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 08/2023

Sep 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 09/2023

Oct 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 10/2023


I always appreciate your insights here but wonder why you think they are somewhat fairly valued here. All key profit metrics are on track and growth is healthy. So wonder what you are weighting?


Monday is expected (by analysts, per Yahoo) to do $1.88 of EPS next year. The high estimate is $2.29. I actually think it will be over $3.00…maybe even close to $4. But that would mean averaging ~25% net margin. At that point I think they’ll have diminishing returns leveraging any further. Perhaps they can get to a 30% net margin. But most gains will be driven by revenue growth.

So it all comes down to what growth rate will be and what you think is a fair multiple. I think 25-30% growth is a good stretch goal…could see it slowing to a lower level in a year or two though.

So if they could close in on $4 EPS next year, a $200 share price would be a 50 PE. I think that’s pretty fully valued.



I guess just for anyone reading my explanation here…I was trying to answer the question posed, but I certainly think the error bars are wide. When MNDY was at $120-something recently, and even when it was at $150 or 160, I was willing to have a large position. At $180, I’m fine with a mid-sized position. At $200+ I still wouldn’t sell out…I’d just trim. And could it go higher? Absolutely. I’m just trying not to chase things.

I certainly haven’t figured this out completely. A few months ago I got out of ZS and CRWD around $160-170 each. Now ZS is around $200 and CRWD has blown way past that. Personally, I think they’re stretched right now, especially CRWD. That said, it might just stay high. It definitely deserves a premium. But a few months ago, basically nothing was getting a premium. These two seemed more fairly valued than MNDY which seemed undervalued, so I concentrated into MNDY. I’ve probably done a little better with MNDY than I would have with ZS or CRWD, but all have done well.

Now MNDY is closer to fair value. If it passes $200 in the next couple months, it wouldn’t seem like a bargain to me anymore. But I admit that’s a pretty arbitrary line to draw, and not a stark one. It’s just a level where I have decided I would probably trim.

Hope that’s more clear.



Thanks Bear. All very clear and I tend to agree with you on the margin efficiencies. The cost of labor will be well controlled as Monday operates outside the US and continues to expand in high software IQ areas such as Eastern Eur (as compared to Calif). But this will only go so far. Israel labor availability could prove to be a headwind.

I tend to think that growth is still early innings. I own a small company of 5 employees, soon to be 9. We were using a CRM that is unique to our industry, built on a common database. We moved to Monday a few Qs back and long story short, we just keep adding capability monthly but are still far below our historical spend.