Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.
In my October review I concluded, “Just as in October Axon and Remitly did better than most stocks in the market, I hope the other stocks in my portfolio will be able to do the same (or even better) in the coming months. Perhaps through their earnings reports, they can remind the market that just like Axon and Remitly, they all have a lot of strength and growth and coming profits – that things are improving for these companies more rapidly than for most other companies. That’s the way I see it, anyway.”
Well, regarding Procore, I was wrong…the strength might ultimately be there in the long run, but they are forecasting a lot of weakness in the near future. Their 11/1 report was the most cautious (at times downright negative) I’ve ever heard from one of my companies. They kept using words like “disappointed” and “surprised.” They admitted they didn’t have much visibility, and didn’t push back when one analyst said growth might fall to the teens% next year. Yeah, I sold it all.
I trimmed most of my other positions in November. Most were up quite a bit at one point this month – some still are. More details below.
A word about the positions I own:
Axon - Their revenue is growing better than most and the multiple is lower than most and profitability is increasing. What’s not to love? Axon is not as volatile as most others I follow, so it was only up about 12% this month despite an incredible report. Fine by me; I only trimmed a tiny bit, and I’m happy to keep a very large position.
ELF - Though I trimmed since ELF was up almost 30% this month, I kept the position large. If they can continue growing like they are now, I could see it doubling in the next year or two.
Remitly - There has been a lot of good discussion of Remitly on the board, after the market sold them off pretty harshly on what I thought was a good report. Personally I think they’ll need to show some profits to start getting any respect. We’ll see if that happens. It was down about 20% this month. I added.
Monday - Following another great quarter reported on 11/13, Monday was up the most of any of my companies in November. I trimmed it considerably. I’ll probably keep it around this size unless it shoots to $200+, at which point I would see it as pretty much fully valued, and trim. If it sells off much I’d be willing to add a little.
Samsara - I trimmed quite a bit as it was up 20% this month before they reported this afternoon. Now it’s up more, but in this post I have included the price at EoD. I’ll probably have more to say about the report later.
Nvidia - I trimmed NVDA before their awesome report on 11/21. Inexplicably, it has fallen since the report. I’ve already added a little back, but I’ll keep it around 5% because honestly I don’t know how to value a company this big.
Celsius - I took some profits on Celsius. I’m happy with it as a smallish position. There seems to be a big market for energy drinks, and they seem like the “it” brand right now, taking massive share. Maybe I should have a larger position like I do with ELF, but I just don’t have as good a feeling about Celsius. I need to get around to trying the product! (I probably won’t with ELF.)
Aehr Test Systems - I actually trimmed a tiny amount when Aehr was up earlier this month. It ended the month down. I don’t think we’ll know much until they report again.
Wrapping up:
As you can tell by my mostly smallish positions, I’m presently not seeing much (other than Axon and ELF) that I believe merits concentrating into. And by my large cash position you can tell that I’m not finding new companies worth owning…though I admit try to set the bar high. Of course, I probably won’t ever own many more than this anyway. It’s hard enough to find 8 or 10 that I feel great about.
Happy December – hope you all have a chance to spend time with loved ones!
Bear
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022
Jan 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2023
Feb 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2023
mid-Mar 2023: Bear's Mid-March Update
Mar 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2023
Apr 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 04/2023
May 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 05/2023
Jun 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 06/2023
Jul 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 07/2023 (and Aug 3)
Aug 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 08/2023
Sep 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 09/2023
Oct 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 10/2023