Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.
April was a miserable month to be an investor. I mitigated some damage trimming and adding opportunistically, but in the end every company I own was down, and so was my portfolio. The big earnings reports for companies we follow were ENPH and NET this week. Both were poorly received by the market. I’m thankful to still be up 5% or so, somehow, in 2023. I’m hoping that will continue, but with DDOG and BILL earnings coming next week, I’m not feeling awesome.
I actually didn’t sell out of anything (though I cut SNOW and NET a ton) this month. I did however add a tiny position in Confluent, and a very large position in Crowdstrike (yep, I’m back so soon). More on CRWD below.
BILL - Well, with earnings next week, part of me thinks if I don’t cut this down a bit, I will get what I deserve if the quarter stinks. But so far I can’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the company is this bad! I think it’s been beaten down too far, and it’s not like I have anywhere else I want to put cash.
Zscaler - So, I guess I am the curse. I got into Zscaler again in March, and in April it had its worst month in a while! But I’m bewildered…what could be the catalyst? Oh well, I guess I’ll find out. Seems like a bargain to me, but I’m sure I’m missing something.
Crowdstrike - Feels like I just sold this one a couple months ago…because I did. But then they reported Q4 earnings and guided for the full year, and it was way better than I expected (much like Zscaler). So I’m back until proven wrong again. Seems safer than most (famous last words), and I can’t find anything else to load up on, so I made it a large position.
Datadog - I had Datadog up around 15% like Zscaler, but after AWS reported a flat sequential quarter yesterday, I cut it back quite a bit. I’m concerned the quarter will drive it even lower. If so, who knows, I might be adding. Just depends on the report.
Samsara - I trimmed Samsara a lot this month as I thought it had run a little too far. As it has fallen this week, I’ve added my shares again.
Global-e - After I slashed this position last month, I considered building it back up, but I can’t get super comfortable with it. They’re a little outside my wheelhouse, and they have a few unknown unknowns I suspect, dealing with big fashion brands and international issues etc. And remember, it has affected their execution, and we’ve seen them miss and/or reduce guidance at times. Still…I’m considering adding a tick at these levels.
Enphase - Another one with unknown unknowns. I took gains when it was up, but I’ve added back a small position after they fell so much on earnings. I still don’t think it’s “cheap,” but it is a good company. I’ll probably keep this one tiny, and take gains if I get the chance.
Cloudflare - Cloudflare lost its premium because they failed to guide properly and had to cut it. I’m concerned they might have to cut it even more next quarter. I’ll be out soon. Just have a few shares left because they’re in a taxable account.
Snowflake - Just like Cloudflare lost its premium when they had to reduce their guide, I’m extremely concerned the same could happen to Snowflake. Also, I think it is overvalued. Also I don’t see much upside. Full disclosure, I have bought speculative puts on this one.
It’s a tough time to make money in the stock market. My eyes are always peeled for new companies, but I don’t want to force it with inferior businesses. Because as always, the goal remains the same: pick the best companies. (Trim them, of course, if they get drastically too expensive.) And know that sometimes even the best companies will see their stocks go down because of the environment…but don’t get dragged away by pretender companies. Those waters contain true danger.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022
Jan 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2023
Feb 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2023
mid-March 2023: Bear's Mid-March Update
March 2023: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2023