Disclaimer: I post my portfolio to share ideas and track my results. Please do not try to copy anything I do – it may not be right for your style, but even more than that: you have to understand for yourself why you hold the companies you hold. Please don’t email me portfolio management questions. I have absolutely no idea what you should do, because only you can know how best to run your portfolio – and if you’re like me, it will take months of following along on this board to figure out what works for you. Here are a few questions I get frequently enough that I’d like to head them off at the pass.
Q: Does your return percentage include the cash you hold?
A: YES, the 0% return from cash held is included in the overall return and obviously drags it down. But options trading (off topic for this board!) and other trims and adds can also affect return – and I won’t be able to share my real time moves, because I make little changes all the time.
Q: Are stocks overvalued? Is that why you hold so much cash?
A: I never know when anything is overvalued. Look at Cloudflare! I sold a looooong time ago.
Q: Should I hold cash to be able to buy on pullbacks?
A: Probably not if you have new money coming into your portfolio regularly (like from a paycheck), right? But when you’re retired you just have to figure out what works for you. The closest thing to advice I’ll say is this: You will never time it perfectly anyway, so just use your judgement and do what helps you sleep at night.
**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD
Jul +33.9% YTD
Aug +65.1% YTD
Sep +68.8% YTD
Oct +79.6% YTD
Nov +62.7% YTD
November was quite a month. I got rid of several positions including two of my largest, and so I was busy looking for new (and old) companies to add to the portfolio. Here’s what I did:
Sold Lightspeed, which I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-friday-thoughts-34972112.asp…
Sold Upstart, which I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/why-i-sold-upstart-for-good-34981946…
And here: https://discussion.fool.com/i-shouldn39t-have-said-they-trained-…
And here: https://discussion.fool.com/even-if-you-smooth-out-the-quarters-…
Sold Digital Ocean. I just didn’t think the quarter was very good. They had just accelerated in Q2 growing 10.8% sequentially, and in Q3 they dropped back to 7.3% sequentially. Just not enough. We can argue whether or not it’s cheap, but it’s just not going to grow like one of the best companies we can find.
Sold Global-E. Here’s another where I was simply disappointed in the growth and the information management was able to give us (read: not much). I wanted some updates on customer numbers, and some concrete expectations. We didn’t really get either. Happy to watch from the sidelines.
Sold Square (SQ). Square cash app gross profit had been growing like crazy, so I had added a watch and see position to check out Q3, but it didn’t continue exploding. Must have been due to short term factors.
Bought Bill.com (BILL) – I haven’t had a chance to write about this one, but I bought it last week. After selling everything above, and because I think Bill.com is quality, I went ahead and built it up to 8%+. More below.
Re-bought Zscaler (ZS), which I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/market-cap-check-in-34979887.aspx
Re-bought Crowdstrike (CRWD), which I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/assuming-similar-beat-as-3q20-of-47-…
Re-bought a tiny 1% position in Cloudflare (NET), just to keep from entirely missing out.
Bought and Sold: Confluent (CFLT), which I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/so-what-could-q3-2022-look-like-if-w…
And here: https://discussion.fool.com/i-gave-your-post-a-rec-cloudl-if-tha…
I’m back down to 8 holdings (plus cash).
**Allocations**
Ticker Curr% Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
DDOG 22.2% 14.0% 13.2% 11.8% 14.4% 15.0% 17.7% 14.7% 12.9% 8.6% 0.0%
MNDY 21.0% 7.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AMPL 11.3% 7.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ZS 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
BILL 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CRWD 4.1% 0.0% 4.3% 13.2% 14.1% 12.9% 18.7% 14.6% 15.8% 12.9% 14.5%
PATH 2.1% 1.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NET 1.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 9.8% 11.8% 12.5% 15.2%
options 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
cash 20.2% 27.1% 38.4% 32.3% 19.8% 20.7% 20.7% 6.2% 5.9% 16.6% 32.6%
Former Positions
UPST 0.0% 21.4% 14.9% 15.6% 13.8% 10.8% 5.2% 5.3% 6.1% 3.9% 0.0%
GLBE 0.0% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CFLT 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SQ 0.0% 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DOCN 0.0% 3.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LSPD 0.0% 10.8% 11.0% 8.4% 9.0% 8.6% 6.1% 5.2% 4.5% 1.3% 0.0%
ROKU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SNOW 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 7.0% 7.9% 9.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DOCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 15.7% 16.1% 9.9% 10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 11.3%
TWLO 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
ASAN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 6.5% 4.4%
ZM 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% 6.4% 13.9% 7.2%
MGNI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ETSY 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 7.9% 3.4% 3.7%
BAND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 7.6% 5.4% 4.0%
TLND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%
TWOU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 2.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
**MTD and YTD performance for each holding**
Ticker Mo Ch Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan YTD Ch
DDOG 6.7% 18.2% 2.6% 24.5% 6.4% 14.3% 6.2% 2.9% -12.7% -7.1% 4.4% 81.1%
MNDY -3.2% 14.0% -14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
AMPL -12.5% 36.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
ZS 8.8% 21.6% -5.8% 18.0% 9.2% 11.3% 3.5% 9.3% -16.3% 2.7% 0.0% 73.7%
BILL -4.6% 10.2% -2.7% 32.7% 12.9% 23.0% -3.7% 6.3% -11.8% 35.4% -10.7% 105.8%
CRWD -22.9% 14.7% -12.5% 10.8% 0.9% 13.1% 6.5% 14.2% -15.5% 0.1% 1.9% 2.5%
PATH -4.0% -4.5% -16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
NET -3.3% 72.9% -6.7% 1.8% 12.1% 29.0% -3.2% 20.6% -5.0% -3.5% 0.9% 147.7%
UPST -36.4% 1.8% 38.1% 89.7% -3.3% -15.7% 36.0% -15.4% 96.3% 5.5% 52.6% 402.8%
GLBE 14.8% -19.4% -9.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
CFLT 14.8% 13.9% 6.7% 42.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
SQ -18.1% 6.1% -10.5% 8.4% 1.4% 9.6% -9.1% 7.8% -1.3% 6.5% -0.8% -4.3%
DOCN 3.3% 25.7% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% #DIV/0!
LSPD -48.3% 1.3% -13.3% 30.0% 2.3% 16.1% 3.1% 11.1% -8.2% 5.4% -7.8% -28.3%
ROKU -25.3% -2.7% -11.1% -17.7% -6.7% 32.5% 1.1% 5.3% -17.6% 1.7% 17.2% -31.4%
SNOW -3.9% 17.0% -0.6% 14.5% 9.9% 1.6% 2.8% 1.0% -11.7% -4.7% -3.2% 20.9%
DOCU -11.5% 8.1% -13.1% -0.6% 6.6% 38.7% -9.6% 10.1% -10.7% -2.7% 4.8% 10.8%
TWLO -1.8% -8.7% -10.6% -4.5% -5.2% 17.3% -8.6% 7.9% -13.3% 9.3% 6.2% -15.5%
ASAN -23.5% 30.8% 37.4% 6.3% 14.6% 68.7% 10.4% 16.6% -17.5% -2.1% 19.7% 251.8%
ZM -23.0% 5.0% -9.7% -23.4% -2.3% 16.7% 3.7% -0.5% -14.0% 0.4% 10.3% -37.3%
MGNI -34.8% -3.5% -3.5% -4.2% -10.5% 13.9% -25.8% -3.7% -14.9% 41.1% 12.8% -42.6%
ETSY 9.5% 20.5% -3.8% 17.8% -10.8% 25.0% -17.1% -1.4% -8.4% 10.6% 11.9% 54.3%
BAND -16.0% -5.5% -12.3% -20.6% -6.0% 16.6% -10.5% 4.3% -20.0% -11.1% 15.9% -53.4%
TLND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TWOU -19.5% -12.0% -9.3% -14.7% 4.2% 14.4% -7.2% 2.7% -3.5% -3.1% 2.2% -40.5%
TOP POSITIONS
Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
07/30/2021: $110.70 (Market Cap Approx: $38b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
08/31/2021: $137.80 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
09/30/2021: $141.35 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
10/29/2021: $167.05 (Market Cap Approx: $58b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
11/30/2021: $178.29 (Market Cap Approx: $61.9b, TTM Revenue: $880m)
Datadog turned in a perfect quarter, and continued to make me more and more confident that it is the top dog and best around. I used a lot of the money from selling out of things to add to Datadog. Datadog was up 161% in 2020 and is up another 81% this year. But if you think it’s too late to buy, I disagree.
Monday.com (MNDY)
08/31/2021: $379.36 (Market Cap Approx: $17b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
09/30/2021: $326.20 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
10/29/2021: $371.83 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
11/30/2021: $359.80 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $263m)
Monday turned in a perfect quarter, and I acted accordingly. Then it strangely went down (maybe lockup expiration weirdness, maybe something else) and I bought more, and more. I’m not as comfortable with Monday as I am with Datadog, but Monday’s growth is even MORE impressive…so I’ve got almost as much invested in Monday. I’d love to have it at 15% and have 5 others like it, but that’s not the world we’re living in.
Amplitude (AMPL)
09/30/2021: $54.34 (Market Cap Approx: $7.0b, TTM Revenue: $129m)
10/29/2021: $74.29 (Market Cap Approx: $9.6b, TTM Revenue: $129m)
11/30/2021: $65.00 (Market Cap Approx: $8.4b, TTM Revenue: $148m)
I was very happy with management’s comments when Amplitude reported Q3 this month. The numbers weren’t quite as fast as I expected, but they explained it to my satisfaction. I’ve revised my beliefs, and I’m still happy to own a fairly large (but not huge) position, especially after the price has fallen from $88 back to $65. I wrote about all this here: https://discussion.fool.com/belief-amplitude-will-report-revenue…
ZScaler (ZS)
05/28/2021: $194.20 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $536m)
06/30/2021: $216.06 (Market Cap Approx: $32b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
07/30/2021: $235.91 (Market Cap Approx: $34b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
08/31/2021: $278.34 (Market Cap Approx: $41b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
09/30/2021: $262.22 (Market Cap Approx: $39b, TTM Revenue: $673m)
10/29/2021: $318.86 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $673m)
11/30/2021: $346.97 (Market Cap Approx: $52b, TTM Revenue: $761m)
Zscaler reported this afternoon, and it was a blowout. Revenue growth accelerated to 62%, and 17% sequentially, which is a big jump. Also, they raised the full year guide for revenue and billings handily. The stock is more than holding it’s premium in after hours trading today – it’s at $365 as I type.
Bill.com (BILL)
11/30/2021: $280.85 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $308m)
Bill.com handles accounting functions for SMB’s, kind of like Shopify handles their sales side functions. Transactions are a big part of this. They made a recent acquisition of Divvy that seems like a total steal and a game changer. Growth is 150%+ right now inorganically, but still an impressive 78% organically. I will try to do a write up at some point, but if you’re curious about what problem they solve for businesses, check out this testimonial: https://youtu.be/wDucFlghxl8
OTHER POSITIONS
Crowdstrike CRWD – I explained in this post that I’ve re-taken a small position in Crowdstrike because I think it’s been beaten down too far. This also includes my expectations and hopes for their report tomorrow: https://discussion.fool.com/assuming-similar-beat-as-3q20-of-47-…
UI Path (PATH) – I haven’t been able to build any confidence in this company, and since a lot of their software is delivered on prem, I’m skeptical. Still, I said last month that I’d like to at least see their next quarter before jettisoning the position. The report is coming up on December 8th.
Cloudflare (NET) – I re-bought in for 1%. I try to live life with 0 FOMO. But I guess I’ve only achieved 1% FOMO. Oh well, it won’t affect me too much, whatever it does, but at least I get to participate a little.
Closing Thoughts
Lately I’ve tried to home in on relentlessly pursuing the best companies. I’ve been most successful over the longest periods of time when I’ve found the best companies. I made great money on Zoom, Fastly, and Upstart in short periods of time, but I’ve made more money on Crowdstrike and Datadog over long periods of time. Reading old posts, I see how I made a great percentage return on Shopify and Square and Paycom in 2017…but I had too many stocks back then. So I’ve also learned to concentrate on the best companies, and allocate to them heavily. To do this I have to say no to good companies like Upstart, that in my opinion are simply not the best companies.
I think it’s also important to see that we can be wrong about stuff ALL THE TIME, and still do incredibly well, as November proved. I had to get rid of 2 large positions, 3 small positions, and a position that I bought and then sold a week later. During the month, I lost a chunk of change on several of these, especially the 2 large positions (though overall, I still made money on these investments since purchase). Then, growth stocks have been getting sold off quite a bit for the last week and a half. However, despite all of this, my portfolio hasn’t suffered any real disaster at all. I’m still up 63% for the year, and the peak was only about 84%. That’s not too scary a pull back in the grand scheme, especially given how much went wrong this month. Don’t be afraid to admit your mistakes and change your mind! Being wrong won’t kill you, but there’s no need to stay wrong!
I’d like to thank everyone who has contributed to the board in November. May December be a better month and may we all end the year well!
Bear
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2020-3…
Jan 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-012021-347…
Feb 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-022021-347…
Mar 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-032021-347…
Apr 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-042021-348…
May 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-052021-348…
Jun 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-062021-348…
Jul 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-072021-348…
Aug 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-082021-349…
Sep 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-092021-349…
Oct 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-102021-349…