Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021

PaulWBryant · December 31, 2021, 6:02pm

Disclaimer: I post my portfolio to share ideas and track my results. Please do not try to copy anything I do – it may not be right for your style, but even more than that: you have to understand for yourself why you hold the companies you hold. Please don’t email me portfolio management questions. I have absolutely no idea what you should do, because only you can know how best to run your portfolio – and if you’re like me, it will take months of following along on this board to figure out what works for you. Here are a few questions I get frequently enough that I’d like to head them off at the pass.

Q: Does your return percentage include the cash you hold?
A: YES, the 0% return from cash held is included in the overall return and obviously drags it down. But options trading (off topic for this board!) and other trims and adds can also affect return – and I won’t be able to share my real time moves, because I make little changes all the time.

Q: Are stocks overvalued? Is that why you hold so much cash?
A: I never know when anything is overvalued. Look at Cloudflare! I sold a looooong time ago.

Q: Should I hold cash to be able to buy on pullbacks?
A: Probably not if you have new money coming into your portfolio regularly (like from a paycheck), right? But when you’re retired you just have to figure out what works for you. The closest thing to advice I’ll say is this: You will never time it perfectly anyway, so just use your judgement and do what helps you sleep at night.


**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD
Jul +33.9% YTD
Aug +65.1% YTD
Sep +68.8% YTD
Oct +79.6% YTD
Nov +62.7% YTD
Dec +52.6% YTD

Here’s what I did in December:

Sold UiPath after its just ok earnings. As a small position, I was holding onto this loosely, hoping for something to spark an increase in my interest level. Instead ARR growth slightly decelerated from 60.4% to 58%. Sequentially it was up a little, but this is their seasonally high quarter. It just wasn’t enough to get me excited. And since it’s 80% or something on-prem (non-cloud), I was just less into this one to begin with, so it was easy to say goodbye.

Sold the small Crowdstrike position I had re-taken in November. Similar to UiPath, growth is around 60% but decelerating. I just feel like there are better places to put money. Such as…

Bought SentinelOne. If you’re like me and can’t distinguish cybersecurity companies on the tech, SentinelOne is a no-brainer over Crowdstrike. It is accelerating even at triple digit growth, and it is a much, much smaller company at about ¼ the market cap of CRWD. I have been adding all through December and have it up to almost a 10% position.

Bought back a 2% position in Upstart as I mentioned here: https://discussion.fool.com/i-just-wanted-to-re-iterate-this-key…

Two buys and two sells, so I’m still at 8 holdings (plus cash).


**Allocations**
Ticker	Curr%	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan
MNDY	20.7%	21.0%	7.4%	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DDOG	20.4%	22.2%	14.0%	13.2%	11.8%	14.4%	15.0%	17.7%	14.7%	12.9%	8.6%	0.0%
BILL	12.6%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AMPL	12.0%	11.3%	7.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ZS	11.7%	9.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.6%	6.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%
S	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UPST	2.1%	0.0%	21.4%	14.9%	15.6%	13.8%	10.8%	5.2%	5.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.0%
NET	1.1%	1.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	9.0%	9.8%	11.8%	12.5%	15.2%
options	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%	0.0%
cash	10.2%	20.2%	27.1%	38.4%	32.3%	19.8%	20.7%	20.7%	6.2%	5.9%	16.6%	32.6%
												
PATH	0.0%	2.1%	1.6%	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CRWD	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%	4.3%	13.2%	14.1%	12.9%	18.7%	14.6%	15.8%	12.9%	14.5%
GLBE	0.0%	0.0%	5.2%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CFLT	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SQ	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DOCN	0.0%	0.0%	3.9%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
LSPD	0.0%	0.0%	10.8%	11.0%	8.4%	9.0%	8.6%	6.1%	5.2%	4.5%	1.3%	0.0%
ROKU	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SNOW	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.6%	7.0%	7.9%	9.9%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DOCU	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.1%	15.7%	16.1%	9.9%	10.8%	10.5%	11.1%	11.3%
TWLO	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	3.4%	4.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ASAN	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	1.1%	6.5%	4.4%
ZM	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.6%	6.4%	13.9%	7.2%
MGNI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ETSY	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.3%	7.9%	3.4%	3.7%
BAND	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.6%	7.6%	5.4%	4.0%
TLND	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%
TWOU	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%	2.5%

TOP POSITIONS
Monday.com (MNDY)
08/31/2021: $379.36 (Market Cap Approx: $17b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
09/30/2021: $326.20 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
10/29/2021: $371.83 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
11/30/2021: $359.80 (Market Cap Approx: $16b, TTM Revenue: $263m)
12/31/2021: $308.72 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $263m)

Monday is relatively down compared to my other companies. It is still off 31% from its all time high, and its trailing PS ratio is 52 (compared to DDOG’s 70), so I have accumulated more shares in December. I haven’t added too much, because I do see the risks, but I also see massive upside if they can keep growing like a weed.

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
07/30/2021: $110.70 (Market Cap Approx: $38b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
08/31/2021: $137.80 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
09/30/2021: $141.35 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
10/29/2021: $167.05 (Market Cap Approx: $58b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
11/30/2021: $178.29 (Market Cap Approx: $62b, TTM Revenue: $880m)
12/31/2021: $178.11 (Market Cap Approx: $62b, TTM Revenue: $880m)

Datadog got hit really hard twice this month, like most everything, but each time fell less than most others, and each time bounced back really fast. It’s been bouncing around $180 or so for the last week+, so I’ve actually trimmed it a bit to add to others. It’s only about 11% off its all time high, after all.

Still, it’s important to remember that Datadog turned in a perfect quarter, and continued to make me more and more confident that it is the top dog and best around. I think this month actually provided some great buying opportunities, and I’m glad to have it just about tied with Monday as a top (and very oversized) position.

Bill.com (BILL)
11/30/2021: $280.85 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $308m)
12/31/2021: $249.15 (Market Cap Approx: $26b, TTM Revenue: $308m)

Bill.com is down 29% from its high, so I’ve accumulated a bit at these levels. I definitely have more conviction about DDOG and MNDY, but BILL is a legit SaaS hypergrower that belongs in the conversation with my other top positions. Happens to be the largest of the others right now, but they’re all close.

Amplitude (AMPL)
09/30/2021: $54.34 (Market Cap Approx: $7.0b, TTM Revenue: $129m)
10/29/2021: $74.29 (Market Cap Approx: $9.6b, TTM Revenue: $129m)
11/30/2021: $65.00 (Market Cap Approx: $8.4b, TTM Revenue: $148m)
12/31/2021: $52.94 (Market Cap Approx: $6.9b, TTM Revenue: $148m)

Amplitude is about 40% off its all time high, which is more than any of my companies except my tiny UPST and NET positions. I’ve been adding all month. Some are concerned because we don’t have much history on them, but I think their story is pretty clear: solid hypergrowth SaaS. Here are some more of my thoughts on AMPL: https://discussion.fool.com/for-those-who-emailed-me-on-how-i-ac…

ZScaler (ZS)
05/28/2021: $194.20 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $536m)
06/30/2021: $216.06 (Market Cap Approx: $32b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
07/30/2021: $235.91 (Market Cap Approx: $34b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
08/31/2021: $278.34 (Market Cap Approx: $41b, TTM Revenue: $602m)
09/30/2021: $262.22 (Market Cap Approx: $39b, TTM Revenue: $673m)
10/29/2021: $318.86 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $673m)
11/30/2021: $346.97 (Market Cap Approx: $52b, TTM Revenue: $761m)
12/31/2021: $321.33 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $761m)

I don’t feel quite as good about ZScaler as Datadog, but it’s important to remember the blowout they reported a month ago. Revenue growth accelerated to 62%, and 17% sequentially, which is a big jump. Also, they raised the full year guide for revenue and billings handily. It’s down less than others, just 15% off its all time high, but I’ve still accumulated more – especially when it got down to $270 or 280.

SentinelOne (S)
12/31/2021: $50.49 (Market Cap Approx: $13b, TTM Revenue: $169m)

SentinelOne is growing at a triple digit pace. That’s about all I really need to know for now. I’ll be watching to see what happens next, and updating my thinking then.

OTHER POSITIONS
Upstart (UPST) Just a 2% position as I still like what they’re doing, but it’s just hard to know what growth will look like.

Cloudflare (NET) This is kind of a 1% radar position. I won’t make (or lose) much money here, but I really like following the company.

Closing Thoughts

Lately I’ve tried to home in on relentlessly pursuing the best companies. In the past, I made a great percentage return on Shopify and Square and Paycom and others, but I had too many stocks back then. So I’ve also learned to concentrate on the best companies, and allocate to them heavily. To do this I have to say no to good companies that in my opinion are simply not the best companies.

I think it’s also important to see that we can be wrong about stuff ALL THE TIME, and we can also weather storms the market throws at us like the hypergrowth selloff the first week of December, and we can still do incredibly well.

I’d like to thank everyone who has contributed to the board this year. Looking forward to what we can do together in 2022!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

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Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021

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