My 2018 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Jan +12.97% Feb +25.35% Mar +28.02% Apr +28.03% May +40.39% Jun +53.23% Jul +46.44% Aug +78.67% Sep +82.00% Oct +63.92% Nov +71.47% Dec +66.15%
In December, fear prevailed in the market, and the S&P and Nasdaq turned from 5% and 6% up for the year to ~4% down for the year. The Russell 2000 ended the year down more than 12%.
In times like these, I’m extremely grateful for this board. Being up 66% for the year when the market is actually down…that’s a game-changer. I hope it’s eye opening to those of you newer to Saul’s methods. This isn’t voodoo, it isn’t for geniuses only, and it is very real.
As I discussed here (https://discussion.fool.com/discriminate-selling-34090917.aspx), I’m taking advantage of the volatility by trimming to raise cash when valuations are near their highs, and buying opportunistically when valuations dip. Doesn’t change what I buy – just the allocation levels.
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Jan 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jan-2018-32…
Feb 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-feb-2018-32…
Mar 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-mar-2018-33…
Apr 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-apr-2018-33…
May 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-may-2018-33…
Jun 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-june-2018-3…
Jul 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-july-2018-3…
Aug 2018: http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-aug-2018-33…
Sep 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-sep-2018-3…
Oct 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-oct-2018-3…
Nov 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-nov-2018-3…
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch MDB 11.3% 0% 1.0% 186.3% WIX 10.5% 0% -4.1% 57.0% TWLO 10.4% 18% -5.5% 278.4% NEWR 9.5% 4% -7.1% 40.2% AYX 8.5% -20% -1.2% 135.3% OKTA 6.9% NEW 0.2% 149.1% PSTG 4.6% 0% -15.0% 1.4% TDOC 3.6% 100% -20.6% 42.2% SMAR 2.7% NEW -7.6% SHOP 2.5% 0% -9.3% 37.1% ZS 2.1% -65% -0.1% ARNA 2.1% 0% -5.0% 7.6% ZEN 2.1% NEW -1.8% 72.5% SQ 2.0% 100% -19.7% 61.8% options 4.3% cash 16.9%
January - No adds
February - AYX, NEWR, OKTA
March - MDB
April - No adds
May - NTNX
June - PVTL
July - PAYC (again), MDB (again)
August - NEWR (again), TWLO (again)
September - ZS, ARNA
October - ESTC, TDOC (again)
November - PSTG (again)
December - OKTA, SMAR, ZEN
January - TTD
February - TDOC, ALRM
March - NVEE
April - MDB, OKTA, NEWR
May - none
June - PVTL, HDP
July - MU, HUBS
August - none
September - PSTG
October - INST
November - TLND, NTNX
December - PAYC, ANET, ESTC
Positions in companies I love
New Relic 9.5%
These are all candidates to be 10% (or even slightly larger) positions. They are either rapidly increasing in profitability (WIX, NEWR, PAYC) or growing at insane rates of ~60% or even ~70% (MDB, TWLO, AYX, OKTA, SMAR, ZS, ESTC).
In December, I reduced Zscaler and sold out of Elastic and Paycom to raise cash. These decisions were largely made on valuation reasons – PAYC was down very little, so it made sense to raise cash there. The other two were down little, and also still had very high valuations. Sometimes you have to sell something you love just to raise cash for something you love more. In this case, I felt Okta was a screaming buy and I needed to create a position fast.
But that doesn’t mean I’m not interested in adding back. In fact, I got back into ESTC today (Jan 3). I also really like my new purchase, Smartsheet, and hope to do a post about it soon. Definitely one I’ll be looking to add to.
Positions I’m unlikely to add much to and may not even keep.
Pure Storage 4.6%
Zendesk 2.1% – This one is a new tryout position
I sold out of Arista this month, also to raise cash. It’s a good company at a great price, but I’m simply less certain about their future than the companies I own here. Might look at it again someday, but bargains on more exciting companies are coming too frequently these days.
I’d just like to take this opportunity to thank Saul, and all the other fine posters on this board. We really do help each other, and I’m grateful every day that I found this community. I’d like to thank the Motley Fool as well for hosting this board and many others.
My best to all in 2019!
“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982
“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry
“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96
“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna