My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Even though many of us had an incredible 2018, it ended in fear and negative returns for the market as a whole. In January, that reversed mightily. The S&P and Nasdaq roared back and were up around 8 and 9 percent respectively in just one month! I ended the month up more than 22%, making it (I think) the best month I’ve ever had – narrowly beating out August 2018.
As the market has shifted from fear to greed, I’ve shifted from aggressive to…well, more cautiously aggressive…a shift that has been very gradual. For example, I ended December with a 16.9% cash position, and as of today it’s up to 18.0%. (But to be fair, it is 18.0% of a much larger portfolio.) I’ve also greatly reduced my options positions.
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch TWLO 10.7% 0% 24.7% 24.7% NEWR 10.6% 8% 25.5% 25.5% WIX 10.5% 0% 21.0% 21.0% MDB 8.2% -20% 10.3% 10.3% SMAR 7.9% 183% 26.2% 26.2% OKTA 6.7% -8% 29.2% 29.2% AYX 5.8% -31% 19.6% 19.6% TDOC 4.8% 25% 29.5% 29.5% PSTG 4.3% 0% 11.4% 11.4% ZS 3.6% 67% 23.4% 23.4% DOCU 2.6% NEW 23.4% 23.4% ARNA 2.0% 0% 18.0% 18.0% ZEN 2.0% 0% 15.7% 15.7% options 2.2% cash 18.0%
January - DOCU
January - SHOP, SQ
Positions in companies I love
New Relic 10.6%
These are all candidates to be 10% (or even slightly larger) positions. They are either rapidly increasing in profitability (WIX, NEWR, PAYC) or growing at insane rates of ~60% or even ~70% (MDB, TWLO, AYX, OKTA, SMAR, ZS, ESTC).
As I discussed here (https://discussion.fool.com/discriminate-selling-34090917.aspx), I’m taking advantage of volatility by trimming to raise cash when valuations are near their highs, and buying opportunistically when valuations dip. Doesn’t change what I buy – just the allocation levels.
Smartsheet is the company I added to the most this month. When most of my other stocks were already back up to PS ratios of 20+, Smartsheet was chugging along at 15 or 16. It’s now finally up to 20, and the stock is up 26.2% for the month. One of my biggest January winners. I can’t get over how fast their customers are ramping up spending with them. Large customers grew from 148 a year ago to 360!
I got back into ESTC briefly during January but ended up selling out again. It’s at a PS over 35 if you use the fully diluted 87.5 million shares. Just nosebleed. ZS is at a PS around 30 as well, but I’m handling that one with covered calls.
I probably never should have exited Paycom without a place to put the money, but I have to admit, I have felt a great deal of safety with the cash I’m holding, so I can’t regret it too badly.
Positions I’m unlikely to add much to and may not even keep.
Pure Storage 4.3%
My new position in January is Docusign. This is a tryout position, and since Docusign is growing slower than my top positions and doesn’t have any profit-engine attributes yet, it will probably remain a smallish position unless something changes.
I added a bit to Teladoc because I just feel their opportunity is massive. It will never be a 10% position for me, but I didn’t mind taking a slightly larger stake at these levels.
I sold out of Shopify and Square in January. These have been phenomenal to me, but they’ve shown some signs of slowing down. We’ll see what happens.
I can’t believe how well this year has started off. Just take a minute to appreciate how much you are up! Just a few years ago, before I found this board, I would have thought 22% indicated a good YEAR. Thank you Saul, and thank all of you who contribute to this great community!
I hope everyone’s year is going well, and I wish all of you continued success!
“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982
“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry
“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96
“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna