Saw this just now:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4039033-shopify-invest-retai…
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from that SA article
The question of “what is in the stock” is not one that I have the ability to readily answer
This is a key question to answer before purchasing any stock. And as he says ,it is hard to know, because you never have a way to look into the minds of those buying or selling or even interested in those actions.
Perhaps you can get a hint if there are are multiple articles and posts by know nothings, people with strong opinions but no real world experience of the product. I found this to be true of TSLA, few of the bears had actually ever driven the car. So I loaded up.
Re SHOP
in the comments the author thinks SHOP could be a 10 bagger in a decade or so. It only takes a couple of 10 baggers to make a comfortable retirement. That is if you have invested enough to make the results matter. And with companies like SHOP or AMZN the knowledge that the potential market will still be there in a few years helps give the guts to hang on during market corrections.
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Perhaps you can get a hint if there are are multiple articles and posts by know nothings, people with strong opinions but no real world experience of the product. I found this to be true of TSLA, few of the bears had actually ever driven the car. So I loaded up.
Was this related to SHOP? Are there bearish articles on SHOP? I haven’t noticed any.
Bear
yes there are bearish articles on SHOP
an old one
http://www.forbes.com/sites/abegarver/2015/11/05/why-shopify…
but not many
the lack of bearish articles is a bad sign, not a good sign .If you are looking for longer term stock price appreciation. Because it means lot of good news is already priced into the stock price.
No the Tesla comment was not related to SHOP. But might apply to other big winners .
I am long SHOP and AMZN .
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The problem w that bear article is all his points, although rational and well thought out, turned out to be false. Even criticism like payment services being very competitive (which is true) ignores that Shopify is building a “captive” customer base giving them a clear competitive advantage w their customers.
With Twilio I read the bear case as well. Technology has no barrier to entry, companies can build it in house, etc.
Except Twilio continues to dominate the market (making
fungibility of what Twilio does doubtful). Heck, it is also fungible what apple or google does for cell phones but you don’t see companies saving money by build their own mobile OSes.
T-Mobile is using Twilio. Not building it themselves. A telecommunications m! Verizon is in sourcing APIs for their network. As was demonstrated when I dug into it, good luck with customer support and documentation.
Still, Twilio has a wall of worry. Shopify has anonymity still Inthink. But yes, tough to find bear articles. Probably because the only real issue w Shopify is valuation.
Tinker
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