Bert Hochhfeld on AYX

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376319-alteryx-will-be-pho…

This article is a recommendation to start rebuilding or adding to a position in Alteryx.

28 Likes

Bert is great at analyzing companies. However his track record on timing of his buys is mediocre.

AYX reported predicted 3Q revenue of 115m or 11% yoy. I would imagine they will slightly beat.

AYX also reported Full Year Revenue of 460-465m

That would make AYX Q4 revenue prediction of 145m (if using the higher 465m number). Last year AYX Q4 revenue number was 156.5m……So that is a negative yoy growth for Q4. Its not even close. I know management is conservative but I do not see anyway they are going to be able to not be negative yoy revenue number for Q4 based on managements full year revenue predictions.

I personally am waiting for AYX to drop under 100 before I would even think of buying back. I could be completely wrong. However I do believe management when they forecast.

21 Likes

Ayx has proven that it’s not mission critical to businesses during the pandemic. In my opinion it makes no sense to buy it now, both because there are are better places to put your $$ (in the spirit of ruthlessly allocating capital) and also because no one knows when the pandemic will end or what the economy will look like post-pandemic.

4 Likes

Bert is great at analyzing companies. However his track record on timing of his buys is mediocre.

https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/top

Bert Hochfeld is ranked #1 out of 7593 financial bloggers according to TipRanks, with 85% success rate of his recommendations and 54% average return on his recommendations, measured over a meaningful 189 recommendations (i.e. it’s not a fluke).

I think he would be entitled to boast that he has a pretty good track record (at least, better than anyone else) of both analysing companies and timing their buys, but he seems much too modest to do so.

41 Likes

I find Bert to be superb at analysis, very good at buy recommendations (although I’m not interested in everything that he recommends), but that he’s terrible at admitting that the story has changed and that it’s time to move on, thus ignoring the opportunity cost of saying “let’s wait several quarters and they should be able to get this fixed.” He hangs on and hangs on and almost never gets around to saying “it’s time to sell” on something he’s bought unless he thinks it’s gone up too much. Thus his exit strategy is the opposite of mine, since I get out when the story has changed, instead of sitting and hoping for a turn-around comeback, and I don’t sell because the stock has gone up, only trimming if it’s become too large a part of my portfolio.

Saul

91 Likes

He hangs on and hangs on and almost never gets around to saying “it’s time to sell”

Well, then, he’d fit right in at TMF. :slight_smile:

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He hangs on and hangs on and almost never gets around to saying “it’s time to sell” on something he’s bought unless he thinks it’s gone up too much.

I get that, but in his article, he previously liquidated his AYX holdings to pursue other investments. In this current post, Bert suggests that reopening a position in AYX may be attractive (though he had no current position when the post was released). I don’t see this as an example of “He hangs on and hangs on”. Surely in other circumstances, but that is not indicated in his recent post.

… just clarifying.

🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.

29 Likes

In this current post, Bert suggests that reopening a position in AYX may be attractive (though he had no current position when the post was released).

Actually, Bert does seem to have already started “nibbling” on AYX in his real money portfolios

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376319-alteryx-will-be-pho…

This is Bert’s complete response to a question:

I really try to look at names as part of a portfolio rather than as one name compared to the other. I am inclined to believe that the upside for AYX will be higher in percentage terms than Slack-but that is at best a guess. I do own Slack shares, and I am waiting to buy AYX because of the way I manage portfolios. I do have some investment advisory portfolio which I manage which have been nibbling at AYX the past week or so.

2 Likes