Hochfeld on Alteryx

In the current stock market environment that tends to disdain high growth IT names for a variety of less than wholly reasonable conjectures and concerns, it would be naïve to believe that Alteryx shares are going to reascend heights of valuation in the next weeks or months. But the fact is that Alteryx shares now sell at a modest valuation of 6.4X enterprise value to sales, based on my 4 quarter forward sales estimate of $608 million. That is a ratio that is far below the average for the company’s growth cohort, and is probably at a lower valuation than the shares have ever held since their IPO debut in 2017.




All of that can be perfectly true, and yet, not present AYX as an investible opportunity when compared to other choices in our universe. This is the same argument currently being used for UPST as well, I might add.

Eventually, the stock price will catch up to company revenue/profit growth. The time delay between then and when the individual other investible stocks resume their high growth trajectory is the opportunity cost.

No position in AYX
Long UPST 12.4%


AYX growth has been decelerating for a while and last quarter they actually showed a decrease in sales Y/Y. Not really sure why anyone would be interested with all the other names discussed here that are still growing 50%+ Y/Y. That is along with the fact that AYX has had increasing losses the last few quarters, while popular names on here such as DDOG and CRWD are showing positive forward earnings with rapidly accelerating EPS growth.


I agree. AYX was hot like 4-5 years ago when it was one of the best visual data analytics tools (& also expensive to license). Since then , they have lost market to cloud and cheaper alternatives like Tableau, and more recently, Databricks. Not to mention popularity of Python as DIY tool for business users.
Just my 2 cents.


Interesting - hadn’t noticed that YOY sales actually declined. They went up @75% in 6 months to year end 20, then sales dropped 20% in the next quarter (gave 1/2 of that sales growth back) and haven’t moved substantially since.