This stock is really falling with all the other 3d printers. Has anyone got a quick p/e estimate for it? I’m trying to just get a rough value and maybe looking to buy more!
Psix is looking good here at its current peg value. Anyone else see screaming buys?
Keith
ARCAM/AMAVF stock price is still in decline, down to 17.40, dropping 5% today and 20% MTD. I only count orders for 7 systems YTD from the press releases, not sure they list them all there or not. Since there were 42 orders in 2014, 7 so far seems a little light, though it could easily be seasonal and I don’t see quarterly numbers on their site so can’t tell. Also there are 1.5 weeks left.
Their annual meeting is next Monday. Anyone else buying? I’ve always wanted to take a bite but never have.
How do y’all follow these guys without seeing quarterly results, or are they on a non-obvious place on their site? Thanks.
AMAVF is down 61% from its all time high of $44.89 on 01-24-2014 and the chart is really ugly making new 52 week lows.
I have finally added AMAVF to my watch list. I see no reason to buy it as a falling knife but I think it’s the best choice in the 3DP category. I plan to start buying when I see what looks like a real bottom.
Denny Schlesinger
AMAVF is down 61% from its all time high…
For what it’s worth, a considerable part of that drop is a foreign exchange issue. That is, the rise of the dollar against almost all currencies. Arcam is priced in Swedish kronas. On that day in Jan 2014 when you said that they made their all time high, one korona was worth 15.53 US cents. Yesterday, it was worth only 11.42 cents.
Not their fault at all.
Saul
Not their fault at all.
Saul
The concept of “fault” is foreign to my investment philosophy. Prices are what they are for reasons of their own. It’s good to know the reasons so thank you for the korona exchange rate info. It strengthens the trust in ARCAM as a company but it also illustrates the forex risk which generally keeps me out of non US investments.
I’m looking for fast growing companies. One of their characteristics is that often they drop by 50% in price for reasons that are not “their fault.” Intrinsic value does not set the stock price, the market’s animal spirits have a lot to do with it. Clearly 3DP was in a bubble which has now burst, the perfect time to go fishing! That Fx has helped to lower the price of AMAVF is an additional gift.
Denny Schlesinger
PD: One of the reasons I’m comfortable with the huge price drops is that they were explained in detail in The Gorilla Game, a book dedicated to fast growing investments. It’s been a long time since I’ve read it so I can’t cite chapter and verse but Chapter Four, “Understanding the Stock Market” is well worth reading.
The Gorilla Game: Picking Winners in High Technology Hardcover – August 25, 1999
by Geoffrey A. Moore (Author), Paul Johnson (Author)
http://www.amazon.com/The-Gorilla-Game-Picking-Technology/dp…
Arcam announced that they were no longer going to announce every sale, just strategic ones, i.e., multi-unit.
I suspect it is mostly sector issue. People bought Arcam as part of a basket, a 3DP sector. Other 3DP companies have not lived up to expectations, stock prices declined, so they sold the basket.
Actually Arcam has virtually nothing to do with other 3DP companies.
But the market doesn’t care. Giving one the opportunity to exploit an inefficiency.
Arcam serves a narrow niche of mostly aerospace metals , and the underlying business is doing great.
I am not going to go into detail about Arcam except to say the EU thinks highly enough about EBM potential to spend several millions of euros, spread over several projects, on research that will only benefit Arcam. Because Arcam has a very tight patent lock and trade secrets on EBM.
Exchange issues between indusrtrialized companies usually correct themselves long term. Look at the 10 year EU vs dollar.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&vi…
more on foreign exchange issues
Generally the market looks past short-term currency fluctuations and evaluates companies’ longer-term, sustainable earnings power,” he said. “Historically, based on the past four decades, as the dollar weighs on earnings, stocks tend to hold their value or rise, and valuations tend to increase.”
White explained that, dating back to 1980, when the dollar is higher over a one-year period, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.38% is up an average of 11.2% over the following year and is higher 75% of the time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-fear-the-fed-or-the-gr…
Note that Arcam does not sell many machines in Swedish currency. Almost all are sold in euros or dollars. A weak currency actually helps Arcam as a manufacturer in the long run, their expenses are in a weak currency their sales are into a stronger one.
The exact opposite of the US companies like SSYS and DDD which are dragging Arcam price down with them. The momentum in AMAVF is all to the downside, a falling knife.
But each decline in price is so far being accompanied by increases in profits. So the P/E gets ever closer to a good value.
Arcam the company is a strong conviction for me, AMAVF the stock isn’t. But if markets don’t eventually move toward efficiency there is no point in buying stocks at all, you might as well go to Las Vegas.
AMAVF seems to be having it’s "blood in the streets, no salad oil Fed Ex moment.
Another company with a similar problem(potential) may be LL. Though I hsven’t researched it well, 60 minutes seems like a good contrarian point. Because 60 minutes is about entertainment and shock value, not anything new. At some point all who would act on the “news” already have…