Beth Kindig on MF live today Replay

The Beth Kindig interview is being replayed at 11 AM EST today. Now.

https://www.fool.com/premium/live/coverage/4056/coverage/mot…

David

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The interview is also now available on the MF Live replay hub:
https://www.fool.com/premium/live/video/4056/coverage/2021/0…

This is link is for MF members only.

I expect a public version will be available soon.

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Her general commentary at the start is really good and mirrors a lot of what we discuss around here. Then she gets to Unity and essentially outlines how she is throwing a 1% gamble on Unity because they may have a “monopoly” on a “trend” that is “forgiving”. She even admits to taking “a flyer” (Feroldi’s word) on it even though growth is not there today. WHAT? Even if I believed that Unity has a monopoly on AR/VR (they don’t), I wouldn’t give her my money. She even talks about getting in early before it shows up on people’s screeners.

It is a total a waste of time to listen to someone who speaks in these terms. The neurolinguistic flags here are massive. Yet I know many of you have found value in following her. Many have said she is great but her technicals partner is an issue. I don’t get it.

I wanted to scream at the video when she states that Unity has billions of daily active users. The company doesn’t make anything from having more people use games made by developers who use their software.

Someone should count how many times she says “trend”. Add in “swing trade”, “momentum”, and other synonyms.

I turned it off at 20 minutes in.

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I hate replying to this because maybe its off topic but I feel this post missing the mark a bit. Beth’s methodology may go outside of Saul’s methodology but her style overall definitely works and you can take some portions instead of quickly dismissing the stuff you don’t agree with. I also feel the Unity story is early but not like it isn’t showing some significant growth. Showing Sept 20 YoY revenue growth of 53.34% and Dec 2020 YoY growth of 39.39% with GM % over 70%. Maybe doesn’t fit this boards standards but I can see the appeal as its an interesting company. As well, Saul or others also take flyers. Gaucho’s latest portfolio update show a small, initial starter position of <1% in Snowflake. Probably done for similar reasons, to learn even more about the business, get skin in the game and follow the company better.

In regards to TA, people on this board adjust their positions based on many things outside of fundamentals including portfolio allocation, cash needs, and intuition (Saul has amazing instincts!). She just adds TA indicators as one more tool but never trades solely on TA. For example, they saw potential weakness before Zoom pulled back. Maybe not the hardest call but they still saw it. But not like they massively adjusted their position, they just thought that if it happened they could be ready to add to their position if they still liked the company for the long term. They never use TA to make massive moves timing the market.

People listen to her because she has been right more often than not. One interesting example is she was one that was skeptical of Fastly before this board turned against Fastly. While not all her concerns came to pass, some of them did and its interesting to read why members of this board ended up selling out of Fastly. Some of her points were debated early on and ended up being reasons that were cited for selling out.

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People listen to her because she has been right more often than not. One interesting example is she was one that was skeptical of Fastly before this board turned against Fastly. While not all her concerns came to pass, some of them did and its interesting to read why members of this board ended up selling out of Fastly. Some of her points were debated early on and ended up being reasons that were cited for selling out.

She made what turned out to be a good call, but for the wrong reasons. Here’s a post from June 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/disclosure-i-own-both-fsly-and-net-m…

Beth outlined a number of reasons why she was not as enthusiastic about FSLY. Her primary points included: 1.) Edge computing will come from those companies with compute servers that already handle intensive computation workloads (i.e. microdata centers). 2.) FSLY makes CDN tasks better/easier as FSLY moves into low/no code. 3.) Skeptical that FSLY is improving CDNs to cache and deliver content closer/faster to the edge. 4.) A FSLY use case such as Shopify is not a strong use case since e-commerce is not computationally intensive compared to running an autonomous vehicle, which is what edge computing will deliver. 4.) Not convinced that CDN will be a leader fulfilling this need, in fact, real edge computing players could make CDNs obsolete as once compute servers are at the edge, CDNs may not be needed any longer. 5.) FSLY is currently benefiting from surge in e-commerce and content consumption/streaming. And there is not much edge computing going on beyond just faster content streaming and/or lower latency for content.

  1. So far it does not appear that Edge Computing is mostly coming from the Amazons and Azures of this world, but from the Cloudflares.

  2. Is a Pro-FSLY comment, but low/no code isn’t what FSLY emphasizes.

  3. She’s wrong about FSLY not being an improved CDN. It is for many use cases (not all).

  4. She’s wrong about Edge Computing requiring high computational loads to be worthwhile. Edge Computing is about network latency, not compute cycles.

  5. The statement about “not much edge computing going on beyond faster content streaming and/or lower latency” is silly. It’s like “not much e-commerce going on beyond more convenience and/or lower prices.”

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I know many of you have found value in following her. Many have said she is great but her technicals partner is an issue.

Rafe, I’m one of these people. I value your contributions to this board. I do NOT want to start an extended thread on Beth, but I’d like to say a few things about my experience with her subscription services, and at the same time show that I do not find her to be a trendoid synonym-dropper who likes to wave neurolinguistic flags (great term, Rafe!).

  1. I began subscribing to her in March 2020, about the same time that I found Saul’s board (which is without question my go-to resource). However I wanted to find a site focused on being out in front of promising firms before they have an established earnings record. A site for trial positions in my mostly-SaaS portfolio. Maybe find a sleeper; we’d all like to find a sleeper now and then which seems to have legs and isn’t being shilled. There are SO many shill sites out there. My BS detector is finely tuned to it. The needle doesn’t move for Beth’s site.

  2. I don’t follow her technicals guy at all because I don’t understand “Elliot Wave” and his other “classic theories”. I find that there’s a lot of what looks like subjective interpretation required; every verdict is kind of open-ended. “It could be headed up or maybe it could be headed down”. I don’t want to trash it unfairly but I just don’t get it.

  3. It’s my view that Beth has 2 things which help her to see promising tech stocks early:

  • continuous post-high school immersion in the SF-area tech community in various roles, including the venture capital side, and
  • an ability to see at a high level how key themes and issues connect. If anything she is early to a fault, as her predictions generally do play out, but sometimes much later on.
  1. She absolutely does not “get” everything. She is not a techie; I think her goal is to understand it enough to do her big-picture view. I do not agree with all of her views (e.g. edge networks). If I’m interested in a company that she covers, I read her summaries but check for every other view I can find. I was disappointed to hear from you how off-the-mark she was on Unity. I’m not a techie so that went over my head, but I want her to get it right, and that didn’t help my conviction. However it did not torpedo it. She recently added a third team member who seems to be more like her, so perhaps that’s a good person for debating pros and cons as well as getting things straight.

  2. Among her coverage and recommendations from March 2020 (my base point, as I was not into tech stocks before then): Datadog (she was wrong about Dynatrace), Roku (saw the connected TV opportunity before most), Pinterest (saw the AI and e-commerce connection early), Twilio, TTD, NVDA and others. These have all been great performers. More recently, MGNI and FUBO (both yet to play out but still have been huge gainers for me so far). She got Slack wrong (so did lots of others) and the 5G stocks did not really pan out. Her team openly uses the “momentum stock” term; I pay no attention. There is the occasional nugget posted on her forum, another potential lead to check out. It has nothing like the degree of tech and financial and other expertise that we have on Saul’s board, but what other forum does? Her site includes analysis of China and crypto stocks, which I ignore.

I honestly don’t know what to say about her vocabulary. I just see it as “San-Francisco-tech” dialect which doesn’t matter because I am looking for the nuggets.

Rafe, I hope some of that makes sense to you. I’m as subject to first impressions as anyone. I nearly exited Beth’s service because of my annoyance at the Wave-related banter, but I decided to focus only on Beth (and now her new co-analyst) and I have been rewarded.

Roller

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