Beware "alternative" economic "facts"

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I like Mona Charen, who worked for President George W. Bush back in the day. Her latest opinion piece points out the danger that the current Administration, which violates the Constitution almost daily and has fired thousands of important civil servants, may present “alternative” economic “facts.”

Mona Charen, Mar 31, 2025

What Happens When Government Reports ‘Alternative Facts’?

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What if the inflation rate rises to 9%, bird flu is ravaging farms across the Midwest, unemployment is rising, the economy is shrinking, measles is killing hundreds of children, crime is rising — but the government has suppressed or falsified the data that would reveal those conditions? We face the prospect that many government statistics will be manipulated by Trumpists.

The demolition work has already begun. The Labor Department has dismissed a committee of economists, academics and business leaders who advised the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Commerce Department has disbanded the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee — an arm of the Bureau of Economic Analysis — which seeks, or rather sought, to help the government provide accurate statistics on many aspects of the economy.

The move came on the heels of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick telling Fox News that he plans to alter the way GDP is calculated. …

Advisory panels do more than offer expertise; they provide insurance against the politicization of government statistics. Without neutral outsiders looking over the shoulders of government decision-makers, it becomes easier to fudge or hide data. … [end quote]

The government has changed its inflation calculation, using a so-called “hedonic” adjustment to suppress actual price changes. These are followed on the Shadow Government Statistics web site.

If mentioned, John Williams is usually dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

But if the Trump administration begins a wholesale distortion of economic statistics, watch out. The markets will respond by increasing the risk premium on Treasuries as a first step. All other assets will follow Treasuries down.

Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. But I think it’s a pretty fair bet that this is part of the plan.

Wendy

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That’s right. The pain must be felt in the home, at the dinner table. The folks you need to reach aren’t big readers of the economic data.

A hungry belly is the only cure for the Trump virus.

intercst

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Remember the BLS changed the way it measured unemployment, iirc, around August of 2020, without restating past data, so there was no context in which to view the numbers being produced just before the election. Nothing happened.

Before that, when Medicare Part D was in Congress, the POTUS was assuring deficit hawks that the program would not cost more than, what, some $425B. Meanwhile, an actuary deep in the bowls of CMS calculated the program’s cost at more, a lot more, somewhere north of $500B. His supervisor was a luminary by the name of Scully. Scully’s boss, the Sec of HHS, gave Scully a waiver from the HHS ethics code to interview for a job as a drug industry lobbyist. The actuary’s estimate would have stiffened resistance in Congress to passing Part D, so Scully ordered him to keep his estimate secret. The day after the POTUS signed Part D into law, he announced that the program would cost a lot more than what he promised. He had lied to Congress. His lickspittles in HHS had suppressed a more accurate estimate. Nothing happened.

67 votes is clearly too high a bar for impeachment. Korean President Yoon was impeached, convicted and removed, but the POTUS was not, for, essentially, the same crime.

Steve

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@intercst you have repeatedly expressed your opinion that the working and lower classes who voted should suffer.

You’d better brush up on your history. Demagogues WANT their masses to suffer in order to turn their fury against a scapegoat. And the scapegoat is ALWAYS the upper middle class. Without exception.

They won’t turn against Trump, who will passionately harangue them that he is the only one who can protect them and it’s the evil OTHER who is at fault.

We are safer if the masses are well fed and entertained. These people are armed to the teeth in America and it wouldn’t take much to turn them against us.
Wendy

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Sobering thought. I was just talking to my brother about this. A large group of people have sold their brains and souls to the orange devil. Them feeling a little pain won’t necessarily wake them up. They’ll be angry and looking for someone to blame.

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I interpreted his comments as saying they will suffer, not should suffer.

I agree with your post though. Everything is framed in terms of victimhood. Foreign countries are ripping us off, universities teach that vaccines are safe, the Deep State won’t protect our borders, the Army is weak because it allows blacks and women (which make us unsafe), on and on.

My hometown went 79% Trump. It is pretty interesting to see how everybody wound up. Those of us who got educated and left are all liberal or non-Trump conservative. Those who stayed are hard-core Trumpers. They absolutely love Trump and see him almost literally as the Savior. Jan 6 was just a test case. These people can be mobilized all across the nation. And if they are successful they know there is a pardon waiting for them. I will not be surprised at all if there is major political violence in this country in the next four years.

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