Beyond Meat continues to sign deals with restaurants, this time For sausage patties, instead of burger Beyond is normally known for. Beyond has two advantages over Incredible Foods and that is they do not use GMO nor do they have soy as an ingredient.
They are the only public plant based food company, and this has to be the first time I have ever seen restaurants advertise a certain brand as one of their ingredients.
Here is a link:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/24/business/dunkin-beyond-meat/i…
The chain will start selling a breakfast sandwich made with Beyond Meat’s vegan sausage at 163 locations across Manhattan on Wednesday, with plans to roll out the $4.29 sandwich nationally at some point.
Beyond is on my watchlist but may not ever make it into my portfolio. Just tracking for now.
Mike
impossible signed a deal with burger king a while back.
https://impossiblefoods.com/burgerking/
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/01/after-successful-pilot-…
many of the non-burger king restaurants in the bay area advertise impossible burgers, caused a little bit of a ruckus because there isn’t enough supply.
https://sfist.com/2019/07/24/sf-chefs-still-pissed-about-imp…
I’ve had both the beyond burger and the impossible burger. I’d say the impossible burger is a little better but both are good.
-e
Here is a page that lists restaurants and which meatless meat producer they are working with.
https://thespoon.tech/which-fast-food-restaurants-serve-plan…
The Dunkin Donuts would have to be switched to Beyond. But yes, since Impossible Foods targeted restaurants first while Beyond targeted grocery chains, it would make sense that Impossible would have a bigger presence in restaurants. If you look at it, it’s either Impossible or Beyond that chains are going with. First off it’s weird they are advertising something as a Beyond or Impossible rather than their own, but it’s also worth pointing out, at this time, it’s between those two. Tyson or a few of the others coming on aren’t in any of these chains yet. So it’s an interesting space and we’ll have to see how it all plays out. However for the time being these meatless producers simply cannot keep up with demand right now.
I do not have any financial info for Impossible, but it seems they raised more private funding than Beyond did, and they said they have no plans to go public soon, because they are flush with cash. So it’s possible they are bigger, with a better product. Which means they would be the preferred investment if one could invest in them.
I have seen a number of stories about Impossible that suggest they are limited in growth by current production capacity.
I shop at my nearby Whole Foods from time to time. A few months ago they started to put Beyond Meat products in the store. Given the stock price appreciation since its IPO, I am always curious about that section whenever I’m there. I thought about trying it a few times, but balked at the price. Perhaps more tellingly, I have NEVER observed anyone picking up Beyond Meat product.
I admit this is just one tiny data point, but I believe their retail price will need to come down soon.
They are the only public plant based food company, and this has to be the first time I have ever seen restaurants advertise a certain brand as one of their ingredients.
I guess you’ve never see anyone advertise an Oreo™ Shake or ice-cream? Or a Doritos™ taco?
Going back decades…a Coca Cola flavored Icee.
It might be that this is the first meat-like ingredient that is advertised by brand.
So this says a lot about both Beyond and Impossible, maybe.
Mike
BYND market cap: $13.4Billion. Revenues in FY 18: $80Million. Beyond rational, me thinks. Swift…
P.S. Meatless sausage patties justify this valuation… really?
I mentioned this on the NPI board but realize not everyone reads it. But there are a few things that are positive about BYND.
TAM. The worldwide meat industry is expected to grow to $1.5 trillion in 2022 as living standards worldwide continue to improve. Other countries are actually more open to the idea to plant based meats than Americans according to polls though the opportunity is still big here. In 2017 the US produced over $1 trillion in meat. This market is mind boggling in size compared to SaaS companies who probably overestimate their $25 billion TAM opportunities. It means BYND could hit $1 billion a year without batting an eye.
Gardenburger. Before the BYND IPO and since I looked at what happened to gardenburger as a case study. Gardenburger hired an executive from Quaker Oats who spent a large portion of their money on advertising. While the advertising helped with sales, as soon as funding for them wiped out, sales decreased significantly. The company wound up declaring bankruptcy a few years later. Gardenburger’s problem was 1) forced advertising on a simple product easy to duplicate which created unsustainable sales. 2) not branching out to other products and being a one hit wonder. BYND is neither of these. Their advertising spend pales in comparison and demand is viral. Also they are already branching out to other products.
Competitive Advantage. Bynd realizes their product sucks (pretty much the CEOs words, he knows he has work to do in that regard) so they continue to dump R&D to make a better product. They are supposed to have a new version of the burger available soon if not already. What they are doing or attempting to do is more difficult than a veggie burger and allows for competitive advantage.
I have never seen restaurants (ie more than one chain) advertising a certain product used as an ingredient. It suggests to me they either can’t or don’t feel it will be worth calling their food distributors and just buying generic plant based meat.
Hype. We humans seem to make a habit of following fads. Just look at all the people buying “gluten free” stuff as if there is suddenly an epidemic of celiac disease these days. Beyond prides themselves on being non-GMO.
Negatives
At this time I believe a lot of people have shorted BYND public float creating a short squeeze (these are the same type of investors who would buy a cigar butt because it’s cheap and will hopefully learn their lesson after this). It’s possible the rally can end after lockup expiration releasing more shares to the public.
It’s also possible that bynd can’t properly differentiate themselves from a generic plant based meat and all these restaurants going to beyond or impossible, as well as the consumer themselves, just switch to generic because generic (or the others coming into the mix like Tyson) is just as good. But right now bynd and impossible are by far in the lead.
Impossible burgers have been on the vegan menu for legit Forbes Travel Guide four star restaurants at the Wynn Encore in Las Vegas for a couple years I think. The beyond meat product may suck and I’m inclined to believe the Beyond CEO when he says they suck but the impossible burgers apparently do not suck. Maybe Beyond can figure out their quality problems before Impossible solves their quantity problems.
It would be nice in keeping with boards purpose to have technical(numbers) for why you would to own the stock.
LD
BYND market cap: $13.4Billion. Revenues in FY 18: $80Million. Beyond rational, me thinks. Meatless sausage patties justify this valuation… really?.. Swift…
Two points:
What Swift didn’t do for you is the arithmetic: 13.4 billion divided by 80 million gives you an EV/S of 167.5!!! That’s 167.5!!! That makes Zoom and Crowdstrike look like cheapskates. Do you really think that hamburger patties without meat, that “suck” as far as their quality, are really worth a EV/S of 167? Are they really worth several times as much as companies like Zoom and Crowdstrike? And even more times as much as companies like Zscaler or Alteryx or Mongo? Remember that this is real money that you are thinking about investing.
Second point. A number of posts on this thread are wandering off into anecdotes. How about holding off on posting until you have something a bit more substantial to post, in terms of actual numbers perhaps?
Best,
Saul
My apologies to this board. I didn’t bring numbers up because they are easily accessible to anyone interested in this stock in the S-1 or latest quarterly report. To continue to discuss this stock here would further deviate from the “Saul Method” and I will attempt to keep the “Saul Method” in mind as he is the creator of this board and I’m not here to mess it up or talk about irrelevant stocks.
Here is my quick take on Beyond Meat.
Even if their TAM was the same as a traditional meat company (ie, every human carnivore) there isn’t a single meat company that would meet (ahhh!) the growth/margin qualifications for an investment in my portfolio.
Brandon