And -31% YOY. I know some here are advocates for crypto, and I feel for anyone that has lost their shirt that purchased this in the last year, but this a strong reminder why I and others have advised against this speculative investment. There is no inherent value here - nothing keeping it from going even lower. Unlike gold and other commodities, there is no use for Bitcoin that gives it value that can in any way be quantified.
6 Likes
While this is a good bear view, I would encourage thoughts about how or why your position could change.
Of course, hopium is not results and this commodity (can we call it that?) does not have “results” but only “price action”.
Nonetheless, is there a thesis for electronic fiat standard to replace other fiat standards. There is a probability (small) that BTC could be a replacement proxy for national fiat.
The arguments are public, well hashed distilled into kaleidoscope variation.
If electrons are backed by gold and silver is it not a proxy for gold and silver?
If the electrons are backed by USD, is it not a proxy?
Trust in any arrangement is as important as the arrangement, itself.
As you point out, the arguments are well hashed out. I think “small” is a dramatic overstatement of the likelihood that BTC would be adopted as a USD currency proxy. It’s far too volatile, and far too expensive. And it’s hard to see any government of any importance deciding to have a currency where the float is decided by Michael Saylor, rather than their own central bank!
7 Likes
No. A Stable coin, one that does not change in value might have such opportunity but a speculative asset (if we can call it an asset) will never have the opportunity to be a replacement proxy. The performance it has had over the last year is a clear indication as to why not. Who wants the risk that their day to day spending capital in their bank account (or their online wallet) to be able to lose 42% purchasing power in just six months.
That isn’t the issue - that it can be converted to cash at some point. The issue is that It has no intrinsic value. Gold and silver and other commodities have some value - they have some use outside of those electrons that allows one to assign it a value that provides it some level of price support. Bitcoin has none of that. There is no quantitative price at which one could say Bitcoin is selling for a price lower than it is worth - however that worth is derived.
1 Like
Guys, I’m on the same page with you (again, we’ve all had ample access to points of view, supporting thesis, etc.)
The relative change from:
- smoke/mirrors>
- singular use case>
- limited/regional proxy (BRICS, etc.)>
- Network reserve>
- world reserve
are significant and ALL supported as potential outcomes.
I agree they are vanishingly small. The point of the comments is to understand the spectrum and to understand the implications.
If, BTC rises higher in trust and use than the Ugandan shilling, it matters for THOSE people in THAT network.
If BTC becomes compensation for activity (network operation, mining, etc.) it matters for THAT entity and the people who interact with it. (how do miners get paid? through BTC to local currency exchange).
As BTC rises in trust (go with me here), it could influence more people in a broader network. This is already happening.
See below:
Nations with Significant BTC Holdings
Governments often hold Bitcoin from law enforcement seizures, with some, like El Salvador, accumulating it as a strategic asset.
- United States: The largest government holder, with approximately 198,000 to 213,000+ BTC, primarily seized from illicit activity.
- China: Holds an estimated 190,000 to 194,000 BTC, largely retained from the 2019 PlusToken scam.
- United Kingdom: Holds approximately 61,000+ BTC, mostly from money laundering investigations.
- Ukraine: Holds roughly 46,351 BTC, largely acquired through donations and seizures.
- Bhutan: Holds over 11,000 to 13,000+ BTC, accumulated through state-run mining operations.
- El Salvador: Holds over 6,000+ BTC, acquired as part of its legal tender and “1 Bitcoin per Day” program.
Companies with Significant BTC Holdings
Publicly traded companies and private entities have adopted Bitcoin as a treasury asset to hedge against inflation.
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): The largest corporate holder, holding roughly 713,500 BTC (as of early 2026).
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (formerly Marathon Digital): A major mining company with over 53,000 BTC.
- Twenty One Capital: Holds approximately 43,500 BTC.
- Metaplanet Inc.: A Japanese firm known for aggressive accumulation, holding over 35,000 BTC.
- Bullish: A crypto exchange holding over 24,000 BTC.
- Riot Platforms, Inc.: A mining company holding over 18,000 BTC.
- Coinbase Global, Inc.: Holds over 14,000 BTC.
- Tesla, Inc.: Holds approximately 11,500 BTC.
- Block, Inc.: Owned by Jack Dorsey, holding over 8,500 BTC.
Private Entities and Others
- Block.one: A private firm believed to hold a large amount of Bitcoin, sometimes estimated over 100,000+ BTC.
- Tether Holdings Ltd: The issuer of USDT is reported to hold over 87,000 BTC.
- Satoshi Nakamoto (Unclaimed): The pseudonymous creator is estimated to hold roughly 1.1 million BTC in early, untouched wallets.
Think big. What happens as BTC trust and use change over time?
Think small. Disregard and ignore.
Either, Or - Our choice.
I think it was, until it wasn’t (isn’t). What is happening now (down another 2% since I started this thread), is likely to correctly destroy that trust. Thankfully, crypto ownership has actually decreased since 2022 so hopefully less individual investors are harmed in this route.
The US government has lost roughly $9 billion on those holdings in the last six months.
Depends if you think that trust is growing or shrinking. My hypothesis is that this route will cause it to decrease. There is almost no “use” for it right now. I don’t see that changing.
I will remind readers that a similar route of stocks in 2008 (as well as during the Great Depression) caused many to swear off such investments and to never buy them again. I have worked with countless people that “lost it all” to stocks and have told me that they will never make that mistake again. My position is that this may (and absolutely should) cause people to feel the same way.
1 Like
Nothing. Gold is a longstanding hedge against inflation and risk…but no one uses it as currency. Because it’s not useful as currency. BTC has shown that it doesn’t really have the features one would want in a digital currency. It might possibly be a valuable digital asset (I don’t think so, but “think big” if you like) - but that doesn’t mean it’s plausibly going to be a digital currency.
4 Likes
I’m sorry, weren’t we going to be the “crypto capital of the world” with a “strategic bitcoin repository”?
It appears we’ve lost about $15,000,000,000 in six months. And here I thought only the Pentagon could do that.
6 Likes
I remember a local real estate company that was taking Bitcoin for real estate transactions. It dropped the scheme when 10-20% swings before closing became too much.
DB2
3 Likes
I can’t believe a real estate firm would do something like that without IMMEDIATELY understanding their counter party risk. But then again, I guess they are not finance guys.
Yes, BTC prices are quite volatile. I took the other side of the argument for sake of the discussion.
I own no BTC or any other crypto at the moment, unless it’s buried in the holdings of some mutual fund -somewhere.
1 Like