Out GBTC Bought on 4/4 $15.98 sold 4/17/23 16.79 for 5.06 percent. Not bad but probably should have been in on 3/29 so a little late.
Andy
Andy,
Position a chart for GBTC so that Mar 28 is at the hard, right-hand edge. What SHOULD one’s expectation be about the direction of next day’s prices? DOWN, right? That’s what the tape is saying, and that’s the way it should have been traded. But, of course, that’s not what happened the next day for reasons likely exogenous to the tape.
So, when is the soonest a disciplined, evidenced-based entry could have been made, not a retrospective woulda/coulda/shoulda? No matter. You got in on your rules, out on them, and made some money. Kudos.
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Thanks Arindam, Your right I am glad to have made some money on it. I think what made me nervous about getting in earlier was the little doji’s. Didn’t seem to be a strong uptrend. But I would put this down as a win.
Andy
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Andy,
‘Dojis’ can signify market indecision where buyers and seller are deadlocked and prices could break in either direction. Worrisome.
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KOLD rising nicely the last few days…doc
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I know you haven’t discussed KOLD in a while, but its moving up today!!! I guess because of the demand for generation of electricity…doc
Its getting kind of quiet over here at technical traders sanctuary.
Trading PR off the barchart signal. It has a good rating from SimplyWallST , barchart rates buy (whatever thats worth). Also been watching Stone Co, a Buffet stock and took a little piece…doc
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Also took a position in AIO this week because I wanted something in AI. This etf invests in tech/AI, pays a good dividend and the buy signal came at the right time for me (thank you to both Arindam and Quill)…doc
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Sold STNE for a small loss 14 cents and bought PCT which promptly jumped up 33 cents this morning while I was holding it. Watching for that first red bar. AIO steadily climbing since my purchase at 17.90…doc
Bought NEX this morning, sold both NEX and PCT for a nice little profit. My thought was that with the holiday tomorrow, that I didn’t want to be holding these stocks. I will go back to tracking them on Wednesday and have a great 4th. Also, I am increasing my position in AIO as the exdiv date is coming up…doc
These are the charts I’ve been working off of. AIO is steadily climbing, has a hefty dividend and is an ETF aimed at AI…doc
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AIO continues on the uptrend, so I added to my AIO position Monday before the close. If the AIO goes red, I will add to that position on the buy signal…doc
edit: AIO ex div date is today so the Record Date is tomorrow
I’ve been watching ENPH since it dropped from the 220’s down to the 150-160 range and the chart looks interesting…doc
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AEHR shot up on good earnings. Last 2 times it did this, it doubled in a month’s time. I’m going to see if it will repeat.
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I was reading on another thread here about AEHR and it sounds like a sharp play…doc
Interesting thread. Thanks for the link.
Its been pretty quiet over here on TTS. I wonder what happened to Quil and Arindam?
Vacation…doc
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Doc,
Quill departed the forum, saying he’d never come back, because I was questioning his claims about rarely having losing trades.
Yeah, yeah, There’s a bit more. But that’s the essence. Trend-following systems --which is what his umpteen versions of ‘Simon Says’ are-- can easily be shown to have win/loss ratio of around 35/65 when tested across a wide variety of tradables and market conditions. Why, then, can such systems be profitable? Because payoffs are asymmetical.
‘Simon Says’ --and its variants, some of which I contributed to – is a sound, solid method of making Buy/Sell decisions. But it isn’t a sure path to wealth, because nothing is. Far more important is having the sheer dumb luck of stumbling onto to something that happens to work out well. In my case, it was wandering into the junk bond market in late '99 and being able to turn a profit on the atrocious risks I was taking for the next 15 years. In Quill’s case, it was betting heavily on divvie stocks. But both those games are no longer viable.
As far as my posting goes, I’ve backed away for two reasons. I don’t need the money that trading could offer. I’m no longer willing to do the work it requires. In fact, some days, the market has closed before I turn on a computer.
Arindam
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In this sense, Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts have thrown a lifeline to U.S. producers, averting an even bigger build up of inventories, steadying prices, and avoiding an even more severe contraction in U.S. drilling activity.
Traders have already begun to anticipate a production deficit later in 2023 and in 2024 with front-month WTI futures prices averaging over $80 per barrel (54th percentile) so far in August.
The WTI calendar spread for the fourth-quarter has tightened into a backwardation of $1.50 per barrel, up from flat at the end of June, implying traders expect a significant depletion of global crude stocks.
I have some OILK that has started to go positive. Now lets see if the dividends also takes off like it did in the past…doc
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