Quill,
I was ready to dismiss your mention of BITQ and BITW for their having such low volume compared to BITO. But some quick charting suggests that killer money could have been made with BITQ recently, because its moves are “orderly”, which lends the contract to be easily traded on an end-of-day basis using ‘Simon’ methods.
BITO lends itself better to “day trading” --IMHO, natch-- and today it’s making some nice, whole percentages moves.
Maybe that is where I am going wrong Arindam? Trying to use a 2 month chart on a day trading ETF?
Andy
Andy,
First, thank you for not getting bent out of shape over me raking you over the coals for your (mis)handling of that trade on BITO.
Second, why are you trying to trade BITO rather than dozens of other easier contracts?
Third, the chart you’re using sucks, even though some of its features were my suggestions to Quill.
Fourth, even as it is, that chart shouldn’t have let you get into BITO when you did.
Right now, I’m having internet problems I need to get fixed. Then I’ll dig into that chart.
Arindam, I figure it’s the cost of learning so you can rake me all over the coals 
. As far as Bito I was trying to Tetter Totter it with Biti but maybe like Charlie said I have this wrong. I have had more successful trades than unsuccessful so that is good but I keep making mistakes. I think maybe my jamming to the left to find the smiley faces, which I know you don’t use, might be the problem. But I do like the Heiken Ashi candles that you and Quill came up with.
Thank you for your help.
Andy
Andy,
There a saying that goes like this: " The man who has two watches never knows what time it really is. "
If you’re going to try to trade Quill’s system, then trade it, and ignore what anyone else says. But I’d suggest that you’d be better off just borrowing from him what you can and then to change what you have to to make it your very own.
If all of us were in a trading contest with the same starting account, I have no doubt that Quill would beat anyone and everyone who has ever posted in any of TMF’s forums. He’s that good. But his methods aren’t the easiest to put into practice for them with small time and small money. Also, he has a lot of ideas about wider investing topics that are sheer nonsense.
Quick comment: You’re options savvy. Quill isn’t, and he bad-mouths them wherever he can for having lost a bundle trying to use them. Options are an edge you have that he doesn’t, and it’s an edge you could have used to, not just to limit the damaged you suffered on BITO, but to have made a sweet profit.
Further suggestion (which l’ll amplify in a later post): HA bars are superior for identifying the trends. So, get rid of everything else in your charts. Secondly, to make money with options, you have to get two things right: the direction and the timing. If things are up and down, then simple calls and puts or combinations. If sideways, then straddles, strangles, etc. In short, you’ve already got the savvy and the tools you need to deal with any market situation without looking over your shoulder to ask Quill if you’ve done it correctly. For your purposes, both him and me are a distraction you should ignore.
Arindam
Thanks Arindam, I appreciate the help. Could you explain to me one more time the rules for Simon Sez III? You said I was in wrong on the trade and I thought I was following the rules correctly.
Andy
Andy,
Let me get a bike ride in, and then I’ll tape read the chart of BITO you posted. Also, I’ll say it again. You should seriously consider using your options strengths to make your money and to put this Simon trading stuff on the back burner.
I get it Arindam, I have been using options also but I am intrigued with this as another tool. That Weinstein book you recommended was worth every penny on helping me recognize tops.
Andy
Andy,
In a couple of months, go back and re-read the book. You’ll be totally blown away by how much you missed in the first reading and how well Stan understood markets and how to deal with them.
His newsletter partner for a long time was Justin Mamis whose books, esp., The Nature of Risk, are also crucial reading.
Andy,
Please review the following two (2) for review. Take you time and study other charts per the rules.
re: Simon Sez II : Simon Sez II in review
re: Simon Sez III : Simon Sez III in review - #22 by Inspired2learn then kruz all the way to the top.
I wish you the best,
Quill -
Thank you Quill, I appreciate it.
Andy
Sorry this is not about bitcoin, but I would go with UCO and SCO right now . Huge price swings in crude and I’m thinking its going up from $69. IMHO…doc
edit: I’m watching UCO for a buy
I have that on my Tetter Totter watchlist Doc and Gush also. I can’t believe how cheap gas has become recently. With summer coming you would think it would go up but this market is nuts.
Andy
Andy,
When I plot BITO with the version of HA bars I’ve currently settled on, then you’re right. There was no warning signal on Friday. Hence, Monday’s sell down couldn’t have been side-stepped. But when BITO is plotted with hollow candlesticks, Friday’s warning is loud, clear, and obvious, and Wednesday’s candle alone was enough of a warning not to put on a position.
So, do this. Rather than choose between those formats, plot BITO on a 2-month chart with either one. What do you see? That BITO has been going sideways since about 3/17. Up a bit, down a bit, but chop, chop, chop. That kind of price action doesn’t lend itself to being traded EOD. It’s an intra-day gig.
In the past, BITO has occasionally trended well in sustained, swooping curves. But not right now for the fundamentalist reasons of a huge amount of uncertainty in the currency and bond markets over Fed policy and actions, the farce over the debt ceiling debate, the unraveling of the US banking system, the continuing US foreign policy fiascos, etc.
Andy
oil inventories are down, OPEC decreasing production and summer travel coming adds up to it makes no sense why crude is drifting down. Thanks for GUSH. I’ll watch it. Regarding BITO, I was thinking the same thing that Arindam said about its price action. It needs more what I call wave action up and down over a week or 2 week cycle. IMHO…doc
doc,
‘Wave cycle’ is a good term for it.
That is great Arindam. I really appreciate that information. That explains a lot on what is happening trying to trade SPXS also.
Thank you,
Andy
I agree Doc, I am glad I bring these trades to all of you because I gain more knowledge on what I am doing wrong. It really helps.
Thank you
Andy
Andy,
By reputation on discussion boards where serious traders hang out --and not just us amateurs-- the SP5OO is a tough, tough contract to trade. That’s why I like fishing the backwaters where few venture.
Andy,
I wouldn’t say it is as much “what you’re doing wrong” as becoming more aware of the challenges inherent in what you were trying to do.
Do you rock climb or raft? If so, then you’re aware of the rating systems used in those sports by which beginners can keep themselves out of more trouble than they are ready to manage by not attempting climbs or runs beyond their proven skill level. I’d argue the same applies to investing or trading.