Reviewed financials. Everything up by about 2 and a half times as well as the stock price.
Watch the GTC confrence 2017.
While they may not get another triple in 12 months, they have a long way to grow.
They have little recurring revenue, but they have many customers and are growing there own.
The keynote os over two hours. I recommend anyone invested in big data and/or the internet of things watch this video.
Cheers
Qazulight
thanks for sharing this video
something else tripled today: my holding in NVDA 
NVDA has grown to 25% of the value of my self-directed portfolio (in my taxable Scottrade account).
I plan to keep letting it run, although I am close to being tempted to trim it slightly. If they did a stock split, I would start periodically selling covered calls for some income.
NVDA has grown to 25% of the value of my self-directed portfolio (in my taxable Scottrade account).
NVDA is an $87B market cap company. AAPL is the world’s most valuable company at $800B or 10x the size of NVDA. NVDA is growing fast because its markets are growing fast. Will AI change the world and will NVDA benefit immensely? Maybe. Can NVDA become the world’s most valuable company? It’s possible but it would mean that AI and the picks and shovels that NVDA sells to enable AI will transform the world as we know it. NVDA also has a high multiple probably because (in addition to it’s past growth revenue and earnings) AI is in favor and there are not a lot of pure play AI investments out there. The NVDA trade is crowded.
So what’s my point:
NVDA is growing fast.
There’s a lot of hype about AI and NVDA.
Technology can change quickly which adds some risk.
It’s an interesting bet to be that NVDA will enable the AI to transform the world. I say that it will be necessary for NVDA to change the world for it to go up by 10X. If it’s just another chip company then it’s probably overvalued. Personally, I wouldn’t bet 25% of my money on that…but I do have about a 5% position which is enough considering the risk-reward that I see.
4) It’s an interesting bet to be that NVDA will enable the AI to transform the world. I say that it will be necessary for NVDA to change the world for it to go up by 10X. If it’s just another chip company then it’s probably overvalued. Personally, I wouldn’t bet 25% of my money on that…but I do have about a 5% position which is enough considering the risk-reward that I see.
When I see the financial quit being positive. I will sell it.
I wanted to take a look at the YPEG on the spreadsheet but haven’t had time.
Cheers
Qazulight
The keynote os over two hours. I recommend anyone invested in big data and/or the internet of things watch this video.
If you do not have 2 hours to spend on the video, here is a 13 minute version:
There is a hype cycle and there is a stock price cycle.
But note that for the former it is mostly subjective, for the latter objective.
I like facts, price of a stock tells you more than any other single fact.
Especially since professional analysts are judged on a monthly or quarterly basis not a 4 or 5 year basis, that can give you an advantage.
Is the hype about AI true? That depends on which hype you believe and the unknown future. If AI is only 20% of present computing ,AI stocks are underpriced. It wouldn’t take a 10 bagger to make me happy, I would be delighted with a 3 or 4 bagger. Or even a one bagger from where NVDA is now.
Years ago who would have thunk Apple, a maker of supposedly commodity devices, would be a $880 billion company?
And is there a better AI candidate than NVDA ? Because I have been looking hard to find any to little avail.
I’ve actually tried to learn more about AI in the past few weeks, and I think most people today don’t appreciate how soon and how much impact AI will have on our lives.
Conclusion first: From the very limited research that I did, companies most likely to benefit from AI revolution: GOOGL NVDA TSLA FB BIDU and Ecommerce companies such as AMZN MELI BABA, mainly because once autonomous vehicles and delivery robots mature, I don’t see how brick and mortar stores can compete.
Now to NVDA with respect to AI: In order for AI of a particular application to become very good, it needs to go through a training phase where it processes a huge amount of data. NVDA’s GPU (graphics processing unit) happens to be very good at that. It’s an order of magnitude better than traditional CPUs at that task. One number I remembered is it can train by 20x faster. What would take a CPU 3 weeks to do, it can finish in one day.
Once the training phase is done, the robot has good trained AI to perform it’s function (application phase), NVDA GPUs may not be so ideal because it’s expensive and power hungry. A drone with NVDA GPU will be in the thousands of dollars and battery cannot last long. In this case, chips developed specifically for AI seems to be more suitable. Google and Bidu each have developed their own AI chips.
The unknown part is how NVDA will deal with the application phase, and how other companies will catch up. Personally, I feel in the short term, NVDA will do very well. In the long run, if NVDA executes well, it’s market cap can probably be around the range of Intel’s height, probably 3 ~ 4 times current valuation. This is a very wild personal guess. NVDA being a chip company needs to be monitored closely.
Just wanted to share the limited research I’ve done. I have increased my NVDA from 1% to 2.5% in the past few weeks and just purchased GOOGL for 3% of my portfolio. I sold BIDU for Google because of corporate culture. A leading AI researcher Andrew Ng from Stanford just left BIDU 3 months ago after a 3-year stint. I read it’s because he could not get the support that he needed from different business groups (Source: Quora).
Personally, I wouldn’t bet 25% of my money on that…but I do have about a 5% position which is enough considering the risk-reward that I see.
For what it’s worth, the Scottrade account for which NVDA is up to 25% of the value only makes up about 33% of the total for my 401k + ESOP + Scottrade, so 1/4th of 1/3rd of the bulk of my present retirement/other eggs. NVDA is up 744% from what I bought it at in late 2014 (along with some dividends, which are quite meager compared to the stock appreciation).
from an investors point of view many of those companies you mention are so large that AI will not have a dramatic impact. NVDA and TSLA are the best but I already own them.
So I’m looking for smaller less obvious beneficiaries, especially ones where expectations are more modest. So far I have found only one and it is a bit borderline.
So far I have found only one and it is a bit borderline.
You shouldn’t leave us hanging like that, Mauser!
A.J.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=CGNX&cob…
http://www.investorideas.com/news/2017/artificial-intelligen…
from an investors point of view many of those companies you mention are so large that AI will not have a dramatic impact. NVDA and TSLA are the best but I already own them.
So I’m looking for smaller less obvious beneficiaries, especially ones where expectations are more modest. So far I have found only one and it is a bit borderline.
Yes, the thing with AI is access to huge amounts of data is crucial, therefore big companies have inherent advantage over small companies.
Actually, now that you mentioned it, CGNX could be one company that’s small enough to benefit immensely from the AI revolution. I haven’t researched what they have done in the area though.
So I’m looking for smaller less obvious beneficiaries, especially ones where expectations are more modest. So far I have found only one and it is a bit borderline.
Use the YPEG Luke.
Cheers
Qazulight
duma answered it ,CGNX
Based entirely on the notion that AI will make them able to do what they already do better, and extend applications. But in fact I have no idea whether or not they are pursuing this opportunity, or whether AI would help. It should help vision recognition but…
I would like find “broken corporate processes” that can be fixed by AI but that is tough.
Sometimes even insiders don’t realize what is broken.
What in your line of business could be fixed by AI? Or even vastly improved?
Anyone???
Data can be purchased.Most companies having it want it only for specific purposes. And even AI needs some directions about what to look for.
So aside from obvious examples which everyone knows about we are going to have to look outside the obvious for maximum profit.
mauser,
I’m in the medical field. Everything here could be improved by AI most likely. The opportunities are endless IMO. For example… I get warnings from EPIC (our electronic medical record system) all the time about drug/drug interactions or drug warnings based on a patient having a particular diagnosis (such as ibuprofen in patients with kidney disease or heart disease). Could AI improve these warnings and prevent warning fatigue? I’d think so…
MC
Can someone please tell me why IBM is not mentioned in all of the AI discussions? They have spent billions to build Watson and seem to have started way before anyone else. It just seems to me that they should be at least considered in such discussions. I may have missed something so please don’s hesitate to let me know.
Thank you in advance,
Jay
Can someone please tell me why IBM is not mentioned in all of the AI discussions? They have spent billions to build Watson and seem to have started way before anyone else. It just seems to me that they should be at least considered in such discussions. I may have missed something so please don’s hesitate to let me know.
Because their commercialisation of it sucks and they are also towing a legacy business that is going nowhere. Having seen the flip flopping around their commitment to Watson first hand I find the business doesn’t match the hype. Now give Watson to Amazon, Nvidia or Apple - they would know what to do with it.
Ant
Can someone please tell me why IBM is not mentioned in all of the AI discussions? They have spent billions to build Watson and seem to have started way before anyone else. It just seems to me that they should be at least considered in such discussions. I may have missed something so please don’s hesitate to let me know.
Thank you in advance,
Jay,
When we have new technology, we tend to try and see what can be done with it. For investors, this is the wrong way to go. Look for people that are growing businesses at rapid rates with low debt and high cash with recurring revenues and barrier to entries.
Start with the financials. Then the business, then the tech, not the other way around.
Even I can make a small fortune, if I start with a large one.
Cheers
Qazulight