You did not have to know, read or understand ANYTHING. You would have beaten the greatest investor ever over the last 15 years.
More importantly, S&P will likely outperform BRK over the next 15.
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No one here would have predicted this outcome.
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Why not a $50 or $100 billion tender offer to retire more shares? Ted and Todd have been less than impressive with their picks so why hold so much cash that they will be managing soon?
15 years ago, November 2008, S&P500 CAPE was 16.
S&P500 CAPE is currently about 33. Interesting to me, it was also about 33 in January 1998, when I bought my first shares of Berkshire.
Shiller PE Ratio and CAPE Calculator - DQYDJ
25 years since January 1998:
CAPE was also about 33 in June 2001.
Since June 2001:
Only three data points, of course, but could it be that relative valuation matters over the long term?
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This “S&P is expensive” and “BRK is cheap” point has been hashed out ad nauseam over the last 15 years.
Fact is that S&P marches on despite Global pandemics, Great financial Crisis and Inflation, Deflation, Wars.
example - NVDA 15 years ago: $3.5B. NVDA today: $1.15T. Who knew ?
Ignore all the doom and gloom predictions.
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We’ve found room in our portfolio for BRK and for broad indexes such as SPY, RSP, MDY, etc… In my opinion, one doesn’t have to decide on one or the other. Looking back, each in it’s own way has been among our better decisions.