Broken Toys don't have to mean broken dreams

I see that your beloved CAKE made the BMW possibly oversold list. It doesn’t have much redeeming social value from a chart or financial point of view, though. I did a 5 or 10 year chart compare between CAKE and PTLO. Ugh! versus Ugh!

NASDQ at 200-day. Down 1.76% This time I trimmed instead of buying the dip. In the green were ONDS and STEM and PGY at the top of the board. VFC down less than 1%, PVH flat, SPG up. OLED–sort of consumer flat screen stuff, and International Flavors and Fragrances up. What do those tea leaves tell you?

Some one, or some institution (central bank(s)) might be defending the 10-year treasury. It was a hair under 5% when the U.S. T-market opened and in the first hour went from 4.97 to 4.90. Then around 1 pm it dropped to 4.84%. Hmmm, 7-year note auction results announced at 1…

O.k., people, is next stop for NASDQ at 12,000? Cash is 87.4%, port is up 15.0% YTD.

KC

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new toy as of today: MRNA
warning: earnings approaching

p.s. don’t forget medically-appropriate shots: covid v, flu v, rsv, zika v, hMPV, CMV, and so on

maybe kinda sorta fair comparison?

CAKE is full service restaurant with waitstaff
PTLO is fast casual with drive-thrus

They both do have great cakes though!

There was something iffy about how CAKE was managing things, back when I positioned them against world-beater all-time Saul elite stock champ ZM, but I can’t remember what. I definitely know more about PTLO than I ever did CAKE. CAKE was sort of a joke and eye-poke to the valuation-doesn’t-matter crowd when it came to ZM stock more than faith in CAKE itself.

Full service restaurant prices/bills are way out of hand, thanks for supply chain, increased labor costs, and our good friend of the past 3 years; inflation. Just my opinion. I think restaurants in general gonna have tough 2024, but the fast food and fast casual should be hurt less as more pocketbook-friendly for the non upper-class consumers.

Dreamer

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I’ve been thinking the same for a couple of years now. And the consumer has proved me wrong repeatedly. They seem to be willing to pay more and more every few months without reducing their frequency of eating out. I think I may have been projecting my behavior as a consumer on others, my family eats out WAY less often than we did 5 years ago.

a lot may have been the “excess savings” or “revenge spending” or stimmy funds, etc etc…

I think they got into bad habits, the job market was soooo hot going into 2022, everyone was getting raises, and BNPL was ramping, credit lines to buy your mattress with Affirm or get car repairs or furniture with Synchrony, or bigger TVs and new gaming computers or kitchen appliances with your Best Buy line…so you have more cash in the bank to eat out. Unless you start putting that on credit cards or tap some of that wildly inflated home equity, etc etc

etc
etc
etc

The end comes slowly.
Then suddenly. IMO.

Dreamer

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Hey everyone, i want to introduce you to Paycom PAYC.

Paycom - meet everyone.

First rule of Broken Toy Club is to admit you are broken.

Back to 2019 prices…

Dreamer

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Just want everyone to know that Paycom has really appreciated the welcoming and compassionate attitude of our board.

To that end, they brought a friend over to meet you all.
Please say hello to Confluent (CLFT) which just happens to be down 25% in AH.

Hi Confluent!

Dreamer

ps…yet ROKU up 15%. I love my ROKU interface. Use it all the time. But it sure still seems like an unprofitable picks and shovels play, and if they do have any impact on any ads that my streaming apps show (looking at you, YouTube and Sling) then they still must not have any TTD-like intelligence, as I keep getting same lame ad over and over. Oh well.

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Please welcome Bill, everyone!
What’s that?

Oh…my mistake. That would be BILL.

Yes, former Saul stock darling down a mere 30%+ and at Feb 2020 levels…pre-covid, indeed. Ouch!

LTBH, eh? Maybe not so much with these “growth” stocks. Saul may be correct there in his approach to dump as growth slows in a sort of subjective/objective fashion. The candle burns bright as the rocket ascends, but best to bail before the engine cuts out.

NET down about 6% in AH, but only down to Oct 2020 levels. Not quite broken toy territory, but give it some time.

Dreamer

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This is as insane a week as any I have seen over the decades. Way too much to even begin to recount. Poor Bert. 14 hours ago he recommended BILL:

,
On the other hand, SHOP. Thursday was a spiffy pop for me, up 22%. This is a buy-and-hold saga for you. Bought it for $9.415 in 2017. Taxable account. In 2022 it was as much as $170. Then, below $30. Currently $59.36 after hours. I “know” that at one I sold about half to rebalance the 5 stocks I had in that account. In any case, I have 33% CAGR on it, and still down 2/3rd’s from the high. All of which means nothing as far as whether it is a good buy now–or a good sell (with the tax man casting a greedy eye).

I was, and am, happy with my DDOG puts and calls. One more day, it could end up anywhere. Earnings season in full bloom. Crazy volatility. Options not a safe play for next week. Time to suck my thumb and cuddle my end of January Treasuries.

This will not end well.

KC

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Take a look at GAN… I think this one is the definition of Broken toys and most likely broken dreams by some. It used to be an old Bert Favorite. The only reason I bring it up is that its currently trading at $1.55 and its going to be acquired for $1.97. Vote by the shareholders is expected to be no later than March 31, with the merger expected to close by the end of the year. Seems like there is an opportunity to make between 20-30%.

https://investors.gan.com/websites/gan/English/3201/us-sec-filing.html?shortDesc=Current%20report%20filing&format=html&secFilingId=c4c2bf4f-f28a-4eb3-9f7c-57bbc3beafdb

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GAN…forgot about that one! A SPAC, I believe, right? If not, I still marvel at the flood of SPACs that came in 2020/2021 and how many of us fell for those.

Today’s broken toy: GLBE down over 25% at moment. Not quite a broken toy, more like “injured” as still well off the 2022 lows. But worth keeping an eye on to see if it starts exhibiting concussion symptoms and faceplants in the streets.

Dreamer

Bought the dip. $28.55. About 2% of portfolio, so did not go wild.

KC

KC

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I also picked up some more GLBE today. I need to read through the transcript. Revenue basically flat from Q2 to Q3. Cut guidance for both Q4 and FY back to relatively close to what they had predicted back in Q1. So they are getting punished pretty strongly for not being great at giving guidance. I wonder how much of this is due to potential recession… versus regional issues. Anyhow picked some more up ($29.71) and will figure out what to do with it by the end of the week.

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Another broken toy, ONDS.

Up 26% today, penny stock. Reported earnings, or rather, sales. Y-o-Y 300% increase.
The press release:

Lots of moving parts to the story. Lots of red in my portfolio. 1% holding. Only my October purchase is green, +97%.

KC

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These cybersecurity stocks have held up.
PANW, CRWD, ZS
Discussed in certain places.

Not broken. I don’t own them, but should have. I did own CRWD but sold out when revenue growth slowed as a genius move. I do own them as part of software etf, thankfully.

I always liked (and still like) security area because it is never-ending arms race (at least until we blow it all up) and quite mission critical. Don’t understand it that well, something about networks.

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security isn’t going anywhere, but the question is on long-term winners vs best stocks to own, etc…

Symantec/Norton used to be king of the hill, for example.
Highly competitive space, and all it takes is a couple high profile defeats of any Cybersecurity company’s products and the markets will shift.

Plus you have titans like Microsoft just looking to gobble up market share with their version. I think of Azure/AWS like going to Meijer. You can grab the Name Brand or the “generic” offering from the store. So the store seems to compete against their own clients.

PANW is a bit of a head scratcher to me, as is Fortinet. Their market caps and love from wall street don’t quite match up to what I see in the IT channel. Nice company, but a big haircut won’t shock me at all.

Dreamer

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Saul wasn’t in it at $330, If I remember correctly it was more like $150 dollars.

Andy

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some current broken toys

Dreamer

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contrast that with the current cream of the crop, in terms of closest to 52 wk high


Make of that what you will!

Dreamer

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Proud of Jeff Green. What an amazing job. Happy to be on team TTD since July '17 (even though I had my face ripped off in '21 / '22)

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