2022 - Monthly and Yearly progress

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022
Jan -4.5%

Currently in all-cash, except for 1.5% in crappy mandatory mutual fund.
I sold today’s rip, about mid-day. So not quite at the top, but not too far off either.

Will be a smart move if down next couple of days.
Or will be really dumb move and crap way to start off February.
Odds are 50/50, is my guess.

I like lots of companies. I just think a lot of their stock prices have been grossly overvalued for some time, and that what we have seen since December has been a recalibration. However, I question whether that recalibration is done or not.

One of the strangest things to wrap your intellect around is that there is no right or wrong answer to “what is proper valuation?” of these stocks. Meaning, if the entire market decides the highest-growth stocks deserve multiples of 10 and the rest deserve multiples of 5 or less, than that is fair. If the market decides those numbers should be 40 and 10, then that is also fair. Bizarre.

There is also comparison-fallacy-shopping or CFS. Example would be, “Datadog could easily 10x from here, as they are growing faster at this stage than Amazon/Google/Apple/Salesforce was”. Not every company will become worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Tech is probably the most disruptive and disrupted industry out there, right? McDonalds is still trucking along, but how about Sun Microsystems or Juniper or countless other favorite tech companies from early 1990s and 2000s? 15-16 years ago we were still selling CRT monitors out there. Remember how big-screen tvs were deep and built like tanks and basically their own furniture? Have you looked at an Iphone4 or earlier model lately? That was barely a decade ago. CDs, DVDs, VHS, floppy disc, hard disk drives, SDDs. NVDA gpu models continually are light-years ahead of generations from just a couple years back. Try and run VR or big graphics games on PCs without newer GPUs in them. Look at video games. My kids see my vintage atari games and they are partly impressed as if looking at dinosaur bones, but also kind of sad because “those crappy graphics is what dad had as a kid”. What about security…Symantec and McAphee ruled the world, right? Things change.

Anyway - point is that bidding up a stock price by seemingly 5-6 years of sales seems short-sighted. And then you realize the Fed had zero interest rates and it was all free money, and so the already-expensive multiples of 2019 got even more insane.

So after falling back “down” to 2020/2019 multiples, we are supposed to go “wow…that is cheap!”. Notice I didn’t say the prices fell back down to those levels. Maybe for some companies, like ZM. But DDOG and NET are nowhere near 2019 or pre-covid prices yet. And true corrections tend to overshoot too low, just as bull market blow-off tops shoot too high.

I know January hurt for a lot of folks. It may be that last week was just like the May 2021 lows and a completely buyable “dip”. I am willing to wait out the potential further craziness of the Fed unwinding things and tightening, and think we may retest (and possible go lower than) the 1/24 lows. If so, I will have more cash to deploy into more shares of companies I like a lot, but at prices I am more comfortable with to get a solid CAGR here in 2022.

Let’s see.

Dreamer

7 Likes

It’s interesting to read the second half of trying to be right, twice. What a conundrum you must be in!

Thanks for keeping us up to date.

All in, all the time, for all the ups and downs. (You see, I get to be right and wrong at the same time, also)

1 Like

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%

Crazy ride in February. Finished very strong, but it was iffy for a while, mainly due to MNDY and just in general the market whipsaw that never ceased. I embraced the POMO, sold the rips, and got close to even.

Given the overall carnage of Jan and Feb, I am pleased to be almost flat.
I do think March sees continued volatility and BTD and STR (sell the rip) motions.
With most of my stocks of interest having reported, I have a good sense of where they are at, and which seemed primed for a good year (as a company). Now just a matter of loading up on their stocks at prices I like.

I have a good idea what those prices are now. Today’s prices were horrible for some (like GLBE) and it is certainly a risk to walk away and move into cash right now, but feel that will pay off IF the market continues to fluctuate.

Ukraine is a mess, but ultimately just a distraction (imo) from perspective of most of the companies I follow. Right below the surface is:

  1. Fed/Interest rates/Inflation. Fed now boxed in a corner. Should have started QT already, and raised rates already, and now they have raging inflation and a concerning inflationary war in ukraine/russia. now if/when they raise rates, they have the specter of creating a recession. This is why you shouldn’t procrastinate in life, kids. Growth stocks valuations ballooned thanks to free money and liquidity. No more stimmy checks. Higher interest rates.

  2. Covid. Anyone remember Covid? It was this all-encompassing thing that changed life and business forever, and we appear to have forgotten it, conveniently, thanks to Ukraine mess. Dems look pretty hypocritical here…getting close to midterms and now time to drop the mask mandates everywhere. I guess covid got less deadly or something? I am purposely being cynical bc I got 3 vaccinations and still was being restricted. Next time I go crush the gym, it will be maskless. Or go to a store, or eat at a restaurant. Or…wait for it…go to the office! Covid ended, not with a bang, but a whimper. And the silent retreat of restrictions will buoy supply chains and diminish wfh a bit more and more as the year goes on. I believe this, under normal news cycles, would by itself lead to another rotation/re-open type trade in the markets. As it is, this may happen but be subtle.

Add it all up. I think we see plenty of pressure on growth. Potentially.
It is all a guess, at the end of the day.

Let’s see what March brings.

Dreamer

6 Likes

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)

March review:
bought stuff, and generally sold it for more than I bought it. Thusly, my port gained and I am back at an all-time high.

Largely this was done via some buys nearer to the March lows, but which I (in hindsight) sold way too soon. Hopefully I don’t regret this as being a classic TDTGA (The Dip That Got Away). Had I gone all-in earlier in March, my whole port might be anywhere from 15-30% up YTD.

Oh well. Can’t complain about taking profits in an overbought market with Fed/Inflation knocking and a war in the backdrop.

I am a bit worn out that I have 3 months of being whipsawed, although my drawdowns never got too bad, and all I have to show for it is being barely above where I started the year. 25% of 2022 is in the books. Will this be a lost year, wasted while waiting for a final index washout?

If the crap finally hits the fan, but tech stocks I like have run away from me too much, it may turn into a deja vu moment where I find an analog to SPG as I did in 2020/2021, and wind up riding that horse back to solid CAGR-land.

Feels like many of the tech stocks at the edges are getting trampled…ZM, TDOC, ROKU. Today we saw PATH get shot as they forecasted growth in the 20% range. So I have no doubt the DDOG’s of the world are legit and elite, but I always come back to: does that justify a $50b mkt cap at current rev run-rate???

GLBE lost some shine, in my eyes, only because uncertainty of global ecommerce growth was increased due to Ukraine/Russia war and resulting damage being done to Europe economy and elsewhere. TTD was hit with a real slowdown due to covid, in 2020, but stock shook it off and skyrocketed anyway. So real-world results don’t always matter. Difference might be that TTD was in midst of a momentum bull market run amok. Are we now in a bear market rally, or shaking out of a dip and still in a bull? It matters because everyone was a genius in parts of 2020 and 2021, thanks to the Bull market lifting all ships and valuations. The opposite could happen in a Bear, even if short-lived.

PTLO still is appealing to me. Don’t think it sets world on fire, but feel it should be a long-term steady winner. In short-term, inflation and supply chain and dearth of available workers are challenges, with an extra helping of “recession” whispers on the side. I think they thrive more than most in a recession though. But, again, stock doesn’t have to mirror actual results.

So I sit in 100% cash, secure in the knowledge that I won’t make too many bad move this way, but I won’t exactly set the world on fire either. Decisions decisions.

Dreammer

6 Likes

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%

April Summary: It sucked. End of March was pretty much a recent high for most stocks, and April just did not have much in the way of meaningful sustained bounces or rallies.

Obviously I was sitting pretty at end of March, so what the hell went wrong?
Simply got back in too early. I didn’t trust in my gut that the lows would be re-tested.
That may be partially unfair, as I also had “fantasy/low” targets for most stocks I like, and I did not foresee GLBE and UPST both dive-bombing below those levels. At least not without a relief bounce here and there.

I do like PTLO, but if I could sum up my concern on any stock right now, it is simply this:
“I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE MARKET WANTS TO VALUE THINGS AT RIGHT NOW!”

Think about that for a second. Recency bias or looking at % off highs are easy ways for us to get fooled into thinking our stocks are now at “bargain” levels. But what if market takes them even lower? Just impossible to time a bottom. If you get one, it is like a hole in one in golf in that you were trying to time the bottom, but it was just really luck that it happened and odds are you will rarely if ever nail it.

Other factors:

  1. going into 2022, I discounted impact of Russia war with Ukraine. I think it is largely a nothing-burger to my stocks directly, but indirectly it is pouring gas on the fire that is/was inflation run amok. Trump was a liar, but so is Biden admin when claiming the inflation/gdp/Fed issues are all due to Putin’s war. What a cop-out. We went overboard due to the friggin pandemic, and Fed fell on their face. Covid hurt supply chains. Ukraine war makes it all just that much worse.
  2. Related to the above, I expected a Dec 2018 type of reckoning for valuations. But I did not anticipate a recession. Not saying we will have one, but the bad news is piling up now.
  3. Some stocks have corrected less, proportionally, than others. Meaning I understand DDOG should have a higher multiple - I am saying it is still too high though. Covid birthed tons of retail investors who probably don’t even remember that in 2018, a 20 P/S was kind of a big deal. Then I remember ZS was at 30…wtf! Then in 2020-2021, we started handing out P/S of 40/50/60+ like halloween candy. TTD was especially frustrating for me, because they simply didn’t deserve their late 2020 run-up. They are still floundering as a result of that. TSLA should never have run up. GME and the meme stocks. SPACs. C’mon people. We were all just drunk or high? So % off a 52-wk high is misleading if the stock grew irrationally in the two years prior.
  4. In Summary, I see more air to be let out of certain bubbles.
  5. Question is, will that happen individually after ERs, like we saw with FB and AMZN recently, or are we stuck in an everything-is-up-today or everything-is-down-today market for the foreseeable future? I hope the former.

My stocks:
GLBE - this global environment, thanks to Ukraine/inflation, is not good. They forecasted great growth. Will they walk that back? Their next ER is so crucial to the short-term of this stock. Long-term, if they stay partnered with a healthy Shopify and we move past today’s economic challenges, they should grow for years. Question is, how low do they go first? $26 was shocking. $22 is humbling. Is $18 that much different at this point? Dunno. I am hesitant to add more until ER, even if that means losing out on a lower cost-basis.

UPST - more or less the same, just instead of ecommerce, what does economy do to personal loan requests, car loans volumes, etc…? I have no idea.

PTLO - If they keep future store openings as consistent as their current restaurants, they will flourish. Question still becomes, what valuation does market want to give a supply-constrained, worker-constrained, inflation-impacted, restaurant business that will PURPOSELY show lower earnings as they reinvest in 10% new locations every year for many years? Their per-unit restaurant comps are awesome, and as a lifelong fan, this is a Peter Lynch type move for me where I invest in what I know.

What am I watching?
DDOG, NET, and all the “saul” stocks are of interest, at lower prices.
DIS, GOOG, and even SPG (again) and others are becoming appealing due to fact I believe they are going nowhere in the US or global landscape.
Plenty of stocks feel like trading block material, like ROKU or FB and others recently. I just don’t know if this is yet the environment to play bounces, if we still haven’t reached our lows.

Are we close to a bottom?
No idea. But I think maybe for certain stocks. The megacaps could implode further which crushes the indexes due to their weighting, but if all stocks stop moving in unison and get decoupled and judged on their own merits, then we could be near bottoms for certain stocks and not others. Again, no idea for sure. The Macro gurus I follow are mixed from near a bottom to there could be more sideways chop before a final leg down to this will be a generational bear and buying opp when the carnage is over and it has a long way to go. No consensus.

More brain vomiting:

This is probably too complicated and not very concise, and it is early on Saturday, so why the heck am I even writing. Oh yeah - rainy/crappy outside.

If 2000-2003 in the analog for today, one of the things I see off with that are in strength of cloud and the megacaps.

My view in 1999-2000 was more limited to tech and biotech (Celera was going to rule the world, yeah! Enron. Cisco, Juniper, and every network company or fiber company was on fire. Excite.com baby, Gorilla game S-curve investing run amok (shades of Saul’s board today).

For parallels, I would say:
2000 had the dot-com trash and no-rev/no-profit trash for sure. I also remember random biotech IPOs popping constantly.
2021 had SPAC-mania and 2020 had covid-fueled valuation nonsense in everything from PINS & PTON & ZM to ad-tech to Crypto to meme stocks, etc.

Another parallel would be, imo, that late 90s saw ameritrade/etrade and in general a surge in online brokerages giving retail easier access to “gamble” on the market. 2020-2021 era saw almost a reboot of this with no-fee trends, robinhood, and stimmy checks for everyone a couple times over, and there was even a hint that lack of sports in 2020 drove many to “gamble” in the market.

When you train everyone that things always go up, they keep expecting it to do so, valuation be-damned. So that is the parallels I see.

What is different?
I didn’t research this post, but from memory, Cisco, Juniper and the mighty broadband/fiber/network segment did see growth slow down. I think it was that perhaps we overbuilt the broadband rollout early on? Can’t remember all the details anymore, but point is that companies weren’t crushing it, outside of perhaps AMZN (which was all pre-AWS and much smaller of a story back then). AOL was a monster and “bought” TW and then all of a sudden AOL wasn’t growing. Remember Yahoo? Microsoft was a monster, and I am unsure of their growth in 2000-2003, but they have continually reinvented themselves a bit, and I believe they moved from O/S focus to controlling the browser game and perhaps there was a lull in growth.

Contrasted with today, and I see no slowdown in these trends:
Cloud computing - AWS, Azure, GCP all reporting huge growth at mammoth scale. The Datadogs and Snowflakes and MongoDBs of the world that rely mainly on cloud growth all continue to have great numbers.
SaaS/Enterprise SW - see cloud. Examples are ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, Okta, Twilio, that continue to have growth on larger and larger numbers.
Biotech - not really my game anymore, but Moderna has shown that mammoth upside exists, but this space has always seemed littered with a few titans and thousands of moonshots. Gene editing is only getting started.
NVIDIA and the rise of ML/DL/AI - ties into both big-data/datacenter and eventually autonomous driving and then the “metaverse”. That is one investment I got out of waaaaaaay too early.
Edge/IoT - have barely scratched the surface on an oppty many consider to be larger than “cloud” has been.
Ad-tech/Streaming - I envisioned something like TTD long before TTD existed, simply because I hated non-relevant commercials so much. Netflix may seem saturated at moment, but think of them as an NBC in the 1980s on cable/standard television. Netflix isn’t the end-all for streaming, it is just the trend-setter. HBO/Discovery, Disney, Netflix, Paramount, Peacock - I believe we will eventually get back to a cable-like bundle structure. So what was the point in moving away from cable? To me, it was never about the content being digital…it was about the ads being digital, and being programmatic and trackable. Everything will go this route eventually. Shopify partnered with Roku, for example…so that the small businesses could have a local ad venue. And yes, we can joke about the metaverse, but as the virtual/augmented reality worlds grow, fueled again by the driver (advertising) that brought you megacaps like FB and GOOG, some of the most powerful players will be those with the strongest brand (looking at you, Disney and Apple, etc).
Autonmous cars - see NVIDIA and see Ad-tech. More than just transportation-as-a-service as the real by-product is advertising and branding once again. Will you prefer an apple-connected vehicle, android, and are the windows also serving as augmented reality screens. I predict “silent” cars will become a thing, like the silent cars on passenger trains, as we ironically pay more to escape the constant bombardment of information. Blade-runner world is coming.

I could say more, but if the 2000 titans were GE, MSFT, CSCO, and others, I think the 2022 versions of AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, BRK.A, are all doing well. Plus the banks, which aren’t an area of expertise for me at all, are supposedly stress-tested and in better shape than what led to the 2008-2009 catastrophe. So I feel tech is stronger now (in terms of ST, IT, LT growth prospects) than in 2000-2003, financial sector seems sturdy. Manufacturing is improving by (wait for it) deploying technology (drones, IoT, Edge, smart sensors, data analysis, automation, etc etc).

And I didn’t even get into nascent industries like Space which will some day be bigger than everything else. EV space (thanks to leader Tesla) is very very real. Just ask Ford about their plans.

So I do believe valuations are still out of whack, but I don’t think a collapse is imminent due to a lack of growth.

That said, we could get our butts kicked for a year easily. Many stocks do need their valuations right-sized, and the longer the carnage (or even sideways whipsaw choppy chop) continues, the more retail will “give up” and btfd will stop working, and that will also help normalize valuations.

“But Dreamer, DDOG metrics are awesome!” Yeah, well…so was TWLO once, and OKTA, and ZM, and dozens of others that have fallen back to Earth. And they are still good companies and likely growing and around for many years to come. But all that tells me is that S-curve investing is just a game of hoping another sucker is around that is willing to buy the expensive stock you just sold. Because once growth “falls” to a “paltry” 30-40%, their valuation will plummet. So they were never actually worth their previous multiple. It is just a game. And if you are good at that game, then keep playing. Just make sure you know what you are doing and be intellectually honest with yourself so that you can be unemotional about entries and exits.

glta,
Dreamer

9 Likes

Thanks Dreamer. I really appreciate your thoughts! Your approach is valuable to my thought process.

5

One of your best posts ever!

Good post dreamer. Summed up nicely by the statement be “intellectually honest” with yourself about this environment.

Live

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%

I literally just noticed it was June 1st…chaotic work/home life lately!
Kids out of school, graduations, general craziness abounds.

Oh yeah. And in a bear market. Blah.

I don’t have much to write. Wednesday is a bad day for leisurely reflections and pontifications!

I wrote this the other day, and it was pretty accurate as an End of Month summary, so rehashing:

"Cash back up to almost 39%
Down -13.7% YTD, so made slow and steady progress most of this week. But being not fully-invested cuts both ways, so I don’t bounce back as hard as I could.

That is ok.
My 2022 outlook from here is that we have this current rally, and maybe future rallies, but we ultimately retest and perhaps form new YTD lows in the indexes. Presumably this would give us fresh at-bats in all the individual stock names we like at close or below their YTD lows. No guarantee on that of course.

In summary:

  1. Ride this rally if it continues into next week and beyond.
  2. Perhaps redeploy some of the new cash into generic SPY or QQQ longs if a dip Tuesday, etc…
  3. Wait for rally to be confirmed over, and then likely do short of QQQ/SPY until the bottom.
  4. Hope you know the bottom when you see it. Ha!
  5. Go bigly long at bottom.
  6. Build giant model hand, hanging from rafters with sophisticated pulley system, allowing me to pack myself on back at will."

May was a tough month, and while the damage was really all done in April, May felt like subtle after-shocks as we treaded lower. I did start to come back, thanks to this Alleged Bear Market Rally (ABMR). AMBR sounds like abmire, which sounds like someone that doesn’t know how to say “admire” and plus there was nothing to admire about May’s performance.

I am hoping the rally didn’t end today. Today we have QT starting, which is all the rage and causing a temp push down in certain segments.

My thoughts haven’t changed, that I like the stocks I like, but that I am more comfortable buying the pricier growth stocks at May lows (or lower) and I think we revisit them, at least once more. Not sure if we ever get an “OMG THIS IS CAPITULATION!!!” kind of day, or if this is akin to 2008 or 2000 and we just grind lower all year, with little ABMR’s along the way. I think the latter. Either way, PTLO and SPG seem like good value long-term, if not super sexy. The Saul stocks have been getting into nicer territory in mid-May, and my growth faves like DOCS, GLBE, UPST are all well off lows and I hope to ride them back up again later this year. Titans like AMZN and maybe even GOOGL would be inviting if revisiting lows, and NVDA just never seems to get low enough.

I think I have enough companies to work with. Now it is a matter of when and how much do I buy of which ones? A work in progress.

glta,
Dreamer

3 Likes

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%


Blah.
“Remember when” vibes for when I was flat at end of March. Oh well.

What happened this month? I can barely remember, and just not motivated to validate, but it was something like fact that I didn’t time bear market rallies very well. I either got in too soon, and then didn’t ride them long enough.

So the hole got a little deeper. Ugh.

90% cash.
Still waiting for the bottom and pretty sure this ain’t it.

Too exhausted from work/life to comment more, but still like the same companies and I want to buy them. Eventually.

Dreamer

2 Likes

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%

Had a slight increase off July lows, but I didn’t capitalize on the BMR that largely continued.
I currently am about 97.5% cash, with tiny amounts of “broken toys” like UPST and ROKU that I just think have high odds of either getting easy rebounds and/or provided they don’t go out of business, I expect they are higher in long-term.

My goal is to try and avoid FOMO, appreciate and welcome POMO, and buy stocks I like closer to 52 wk lows, especially if/as the BMR ends and we retest the June lows.

If we don’t ever retest the June lows, then I probably missed the growth stock entry window, because I don’t see how any sane person thinks those stocks should just go back to ATH’s (which were obviously overvalued in an easy money/stimulus environment that is long gone). So to me, I think the upside at anything other than 52 wk lows is ultimately limited.

If we do retest the June lows, I will opportunistically be buying.
I do think the economy is in trouble, but the market looks ahead normally, so since we are 7-8 months off the recent market highs, which is a good chunk of time, outside of a multi-year recession/depression (which I don’t think will happen - outside of increased wars/black swans), I think the next push down may be good long-term entries.

I am not happy to still be 15% or more off highs, but I also have been very cautious in having as much cash as I can for “buying the bottom”. Good luck with that, Dreamer. Ha.

That is the plan!

Here comes August, the next round of ERs, and forecasts. I expect actual numbers for most ERs of stocks I like to be decent, but forecasts will be the key. The November ERs (and maybe Feb 2023 ERs) may mark ER numbers being crap, but at that point, the forecasts “might” be turning up. So the trick is, imo, to buy the stocks before the forecasts turn cautiously optimistic again.

Dreamer

4 Likes

Would you buy CFLT at these levels?

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%
August -15%

I had a couple really small trades in August go the right direction, thus the slight improvement in YTD. But mostly I hid in cash when not trying some index shorts. Looks like I should have kept that QQQ short on! I always exit early, it seems.

Are we set to have a revisiting of the June lows in Sept-Nov? I have no idea. I think the odds are just as do that we do vs we don’t. Flip of the coin.

Just a guess would be we continue lower, maybe we get near the June lows, and we have another BMR/bounce, but perhaps a shorter one.

I am not sure if I get out of this year in the positive, as the recent BMR led to a no-man’s land of stocks too-far off their lows but yet still well off their highs. A “blah” or “meh” sideways chop little slice of investing hell. Broken toys and cigar butts with a few folks walking around oblivious to the carnage.

I am probably going to start buying a bit more here and there. Everything has gone more slowly than I expected, and I have missed some great bounces (GLBE, TTD, NET, PTLO, etc). So if a company I like gets near their 52 wk low again, I make start averaging in.

All the crystal balls are broken, folks. Good luck out there!

Dreamer

3 Likes

Prior year results
2018 46%
2019 60%
2020 78%
2021 79%

*Note that I pretty much finished 2021 at ATH, as I started pivoting to cash after a great Nov 2021. Which means my 2022 progress is also about how far off my ATH I am.

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%
August -15%
September -15%


Mostly enjoyed POMO with high cash positions most of month.
Probably gained 1%, but then deployed about 20% cash and lost that 1% as market fell a bit.

Entering this month, hoping for continued lower lows that allow for good entry buying opps to deploy more cash.

In only SPG and smaller allocation of UPST at moment.
Most stocks I like long-term (TTD, NVDA, PTLO, DDOG, others) are still too rich given the macro backdrop for me to commit to yet.

Running out of time to salvage this year, and that is ok. Need to make best decisions with a 2-3 year mindset at all times, vs trying some ill-timed trades to satisfy my ego about being negative for the year.

Let’s go, POMO…

Dreamer

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Hey Hey!
I forgot my SPG dividends hit on 9/30, and the ol’ 401k immediately reinvested them at 9/30 prices.

Add it all up, and I gained back that 1% after all. So correct adjusted monthly progress (or lack thereof) should be:

2022 (below are where port is YTD, and not the performance of the month by itself)
Jan -4.5%
Feb -1.2%
Mar +.09% (ok, call it 1%!)
Apr -10%
May -14%
June -17.5%
July -16%
August -15%
September -14%

As you were.

Dreamer

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October -12.3%

I only mention the “.3” part because it was about 12% even until I chose to get cute and buy some META for a bounce that never came. Still have it, and a tiny bit of DDOG when it got back down to $78.50. So that slightly offset my poor META timing.

I am 97% cash though.

I predict election up/down market zaniness ahead!

Dreamer

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quick check has me back at April levels.
Not sure Nov/Dec provides me enough time to close the gap.

The ATH thread must be just covered in cobwebs and have those little doodle bugs just everywhere, dead on their backs with their little legs in the air, frozen in time. Gak.

Dreamer

November -9.9%
Just snuck in under that 10% down threshold.
Been arduous/trying/challenging times since April.

We just received a nonsensible pop after Powell speech, and I ironically am hopeful for a BMR to go a bit higher, so I finally feel more comfortable shorting into what I expect is an eventual bottom in 2023. I am looking at both individual stocks and the indexes as short candidates.

Conversely, I will continue to buy the stocks I like if/as they hit target prices. S may be an example, although they have yet to release their ER (next week).

I kind of want to get back to being more fully invested…at least 50-70% sort of thing, even if that means it has to be a combination of shorts/longs.

The one thing being largely in cash, outside of opportunistic trades the past 6 months, is that I can’t move the needle too much if I have no skin in the game. But I can’t really fault being high-cash this year either, in hindsight.

More an ego thing than anything, I suppose…I hate idea of finishing this year negative. But do I risk making it worse by trying to have my port balance be X amount higher by this arbitrary X date? Probably.

Currently have about 2.5% S position that is slightly underwater, and rest in cash.

good luck out there!
Dreamer

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