Earnings Releases

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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Its that time again, boys and girls. Here is a list of all my holdings. Except as noted, all dates and times are from company IR sites or press releases. I have these alphabetically, which may not be the best for you. Probably better if on spread sheet for sorting, but… sorry.

STOCK     DATE      TIME    NOTES
AFRM        8/24    ?      No press release
ANET        7/31     AMC
AYX         8/7      AMC
BILL        8/17     AMC    Q4
CRWD        8/29    ?      No press release 
DDOG        8/8      BMO  
ENVX        7/26     AMC
FOUR        8/3      BMO
GLBE        8/8      BMO
MNDY        8/14     BMO
OKE         8/7      AMC
OLED        8/3      AMC
ONDS        8/9            No press release  
PCOR        8/2      AMC
PERI        8/2      BMO 
PGY         8/10     AMC
PSTG        8/30           No press release
PVH         8/29           No press release
SHOP        8/2            AMC
SNOW        8/23           No press release
SPG         8/2            AMC
SPT         8/3            AMC
STEM        8/3            AMC
UPST        8/8            AMC
VERI        8/8            AMC
VFC         8/1            AMC

Note, ENVX is today.

KC
8 Likes
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Changed ONDS to 8/14 BMO

Here is the list by date:
Results not overwhelming, IMO. SPG did o.k., raised dividend. Results from 8/2 overshadowed by the AA+ downgrade as an excuse to take profits.

STOCK        DATE       TIME     NOTES
ENVX         7/26       BMO
ANET         7/31       AMC
VFC          8/1        AMC
PERI         8/2        BMO 
PCOR         8/2        AMC
SPG          8/2        AMC
SHOP         8/2            
FOUR         8/3        BMO
OLED         8/3        AMC
SPT          8/3        AMC
STEM         8/3        AMC
AYX          8/7        AMC
OKE          8/7        AMC
DDOG         8/8        BMO  
GLBE         8/8        BMO
UPST         8/8        AMC
VERI         8/8        AMC
PGY          8/10       AMC
ONDS         8/14       BMO
MNDY         8/14       BMO
BILL         8/17       AMC    Q4
SNOW         8/23           
AFRM         8/24    ?      
CRWD         8/29    ?       
PVH          8/29            
PSTG         8/30

KC

4 Likes
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Some info with regard to UPST which is coming up next week. I see that KBRA has rated 3 asset backed securitizations, the ratings issued yesterday. They were for:

GLS Auto Receivables, the 3rd of the year, amount $452 million
Flagship Credit Auto Trust, 3rd of the year, amount $350 million
Carvana, 5th of the year, $317 million.

I need to read further, but looks as though the delinquency rates are increasing, which would not surprise. I will be interested to see if UPST reveals data on its auto loan sector.

KC

1 Like
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SPG and PTLO both taking a bath at moment, which is nice to see as I would want back in much much lower.

If (when?) recession occurs, I would expect both dragged down in sympathy anyway, but would love SPG sub-$90, PTLO sub-$18. Both could go lower in prolonged recession, but would start buying there.

Portillos continues to add stores. Just hard to make a lot more profit when labor costs keep increasing and inflation/commodity prices are providing pressure. Not sure if they have fully diluted all the shares for the private equity mafia either, but should be close.

SPG is the gorilla/stud. Barring a pandemic, I doubt ecommerce resurges to bring out the “end of malls” mob again, but again I think a general recession puts pressure on their tenants and them and foot traffic. But this is typically higher-income traffic/locations and they will continue to bounce back. A change in CEO, if it occurred thru retirement, would likely be only thing to give me pause on how well-run they seem to be. With Regal theaters closing, I wondered the other day about a titan-sponsored movie chain, via Amazon (Prime) or Disney or Apple (Apple TV) or even Netflix, to provide an in-person venue for their content, lure new interest, and make money off showing other studios’ films, could work in a mall.

Might be the 80s kid in me, but the mall was where we went for the movie theater when I was a teen.

Dreamer

3 Likes
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I am listening to the conference call right now, and was looking at the chart and sort of reliving the price action and my reactions thereto. I did buy another sliver, mostly as marker. But I think sub-100 is a reasonable chance. Not necessarily a recession issue, but just one of a hundred of possible events, the way things are now. So, even though down 6 to 7%, not buying more. I think that to make decent money with SPG, we have to hold the core and trade a bit. Just under 6% dividend now and catching 10% moves a couple times a year makes it worthwhile holding, for me. And if no moves, I can have a portion of my port making the dividend. It covers my RMD.

KC

2 Likes
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Never trust E*Trade for numbers. I guess they don’t calculate the dividend with “live” share price.
So, 6.6% now, and at price of $100, that’s 7.6%, and if you look for sub $90 it’s 8.4%. I don’t know what it would take to drive the price that low. I’ll keep the truck idling, though…

KC

1 Like
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It was that low about 9-10 months ago.
After a big move up or down, we always think things can never happen again.

DDOG was in 60s a few months back.
Yet in early 2022, the thought of it going DOWN to $135 was absurd to Saul.

Not sure if we call that recent-anchor bias or what.

Dreamer

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True, It broke $90 for four days, September 26, 2022 through September 30.

So, what did it take?:

"Wall Street’s mayhem continued on Friday as U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower. Market participants are highly concerned about an imminent recession in the U.S. economy and globally. Despite adopting an extreme-hawkish monetary stance, the Fed failed to control soaring inflation. All the three major stock indexes ended deep in negative territory.

The Fed has raised the median of the Fed Fund rate to 4.4% in September from 3.4% in June. This means that the range of the benchmark lending rate at the end of 2022 will be 4.25-4.5%, indicating a 75 basis-point and 50 basis-point interest rate hike in November and December, respectively. Further, the central bank has projected that the median benchmark interest rate will reach 4.6% in 2023."

Hmmm, that was optimistic, wasn’t it. Today it is 5.25 to 5.5%.

So a surge in inflation and a 50 point rate hike… I don’t think I want to root for SPG at sub-$50.

and, why is Dreamer not nose to the grindstone at work on a Thursday morning?

KC

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It was sub fifty in the last four years, maybe five. When they started buying failing retail chain or chains. I think perhaps part of a couple different failing names. David Simon bought shares prior to the announcement, if I remember correctly. If malls survive, which I do not doubt, SPG will survive.

Jk

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Covid knocked spg down to a decades long low.

I dont think it had been that low since climbing out of GFC in 2009.

My cost basis was in low 60s, but believe it hit 50s in spring 2020.

That was mandated mall closures. Barring repeat of mandated closures, i dont see a return to 50s/60s as likely.

$85-90 was the buy zone and i missed it big time last Oct.

Dreamer

1 Like
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Prediction for AMZN and AAPL

Numbers and forecast won’t be great.
May be disguised a bit under the rules of the “game” and they may beat forecasts that had a low bar. But y/y growth should be underwhelming.

A wildcard is if either announces an “AI” thing of some sort.
Tied to perhaps Siri or Alexa, respectively.

I imagine those would be future-looking announcements, but market won’t care.

So:

  1. if a buzzworthy “AI” news blurb, stock may pop modestly.
  2. if no real newsworthy stuff, probably a slight drop in stock tomorrow.

Either way, how they go, so goes the open tomorrow.
The close tomorrow is a different story though.

Dreamer

1 Like
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From cnbc

Sales in Amazon’s cloud unit climbed 12% in the second quarter to $22.1 billion, above the $21.8 billion projected by Wall Street. Still, that marks a deceleration from the prior quarter, when sales expanded 16%, and the slowest growth since 2015, when Amazon began breaking out cloud revenue.

AWS accounted for 70% of Amazon’s $7.7 billion in operating profit.

Wow. 12% growth. Yay.

1 Like
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Apple reports

Overall sales still fell 1% year over year, however, and revenue in the company’s iPhone, Mac, and iPad lines were all down from a year earlier.

Bullish?

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"Jefferies analyst Brent Thill called the performance of AWS proof of its “stabilization” and further evidence of a rebounding cloud market.

So I thought I would look at MDB and SNOW to see if they responded since they have had usage based revenue concerns. Up 5 or 6%. But,

Digital Ocean down 21% after hours.

  • Revenue was $170 million, an increase of 27% year-over-year.
  • Annual Run-Rate Revenue (ARR) ended the quarter at $682 million, representing 25% year-over-year growth.

So why down 21% compared to AMZN up 10%?

Well, there is this:

“Given the tax expense errors described in today’s Form 8-K filing, we are not yet in a position to report second quarter 2023 net income or non-GAAP diluted net income per share or to provide guidance on Q3 or full year non-GAAP diluted net income per share. While we are still finalizing the impact of these errors on our financials, we continue to expect non-GAAP diluted net income per share, pending resolution of tax expense, to be higher than our previously guided range of $0.40 to $0.41”.

Ouch! But I think the price drop could be robo-trading on the language rather than the meaning, so I bought a little bit. More entertainment than investing.

KC

1 Like
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Don’t forget that DOCN is essentially cloud for SMB or startups.
What business cohort is most affected by the lack of low interest rate / private equity funding? Same group.

Plus in any business slowdown, the Magnificent 7 may slow growth, but little companies can just go out of business altogether.

Their stock runup made zero sense.
But then most of the recent stock runups aren’t fundamentally-based.

Who exactly is showing massive growth right now?
Using Saul language, we are back to praising 20-25% growth vs lamenting the “slowing growth” when hyper-growth companies would throttle down from 100% y/y growth to a mere 80% y/y growth.

I don’t think cloud is rebounding. I think it is share shift at best, with a side helping of AI use cases.

The cloud companies have muscled their way into the procurement/CFO mindsets of many Enterprise clients, with “Cloud Commits” where client gets a perceived discount if they pledge to spend “X”.

But wait…economy is soft, or perception is that softness is coming, so everyone downsizes slightly, employs costs controls, and tries to shore up their profit bottom line to wall street, to slap lipstick over the pig that is their slowing growth.

Ok…but if budgets are slashed, what do you do if you are trying to reign in IT spend, but need to meet your Cloud Commit or risk a financial penalty? Why you shift an on-prem workload over to the cloud, if possible, and if it helps drawdown your Commit number.

It is all a shell game now.
As recession hits, the bottom line gets crushed too, and so do your stock prices.

But, yes, if you look really really closely, there may be the slightest bump for software companies that gain when cloud titans gain. But reality is the overall cloud growth has slowed considerably, so the tailwinds are much weaker for all.

Dreamer

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also…on incredible AWS “beat”…

Just the game being played.

Dreamer

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This is such a great board to come see what the opposite of optimistic looks like. Man oh man, so much nicer to live in the glass half full world.

So far for me.

META. Strong earnings and guidance
MELI. Strong earnings and guidance
GOOG. Good numbers and guidance
AMZN. Strong earnings and guidance
PGNY. Strong earnings and guidance
ABNB. Strong earnings and guidance
SOFI. Strong earnings and guidance
INMD. Strong earnings and guidance
AEHR. Strong earnings and guidance
UBER. Mostly good, first ever profitable quarter
AAPL. Mixed bag.
AMD. Decent earnings, good guidance.
PYPL. Not great, don’t trust management. Sold after earnings report
LMND. Also not great. Sold AH yesterday.

Still have about 6 companies to go, including TSLA, NVDA, SNOW, CRWD, IOT
Lots of positives out there, lots of great companies to invest in, you just have to be willing to see it.

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AYX and OKE. OKE was a non-event. Moved 0.3%, up. Macro-wise, income was down 33% which represented less volume of NG and NGL which would seem to reflect reduce demand. Still raised EPS by 10%+. Hoping for a divvy increase in 2nd half. AYX was just all around disaster. I think the session was down 1.8% and after hours down 23.3%. I think it is 0.6% of the port and is there because Bert thinks it is misunderstood and an AI winner.
And then there was UPST. Earnings Tuesday. Nervous market? I did trim my portfolio to 50% cash at the opening. But, UPST…, I just trimmed a bit. And UPST was the major part of my down day. Was it down… 14.4%? and then another 6.2 after hours. Nasty. I fear that the loan volume will be substantially down and that auto won’t be a meaningful contributor. Minimum ABS activity as far as I have seen.

KC

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AYX is at a 5-year discount…whooo hooo! Remember those early 2018 glory days?

DDOG getting kicked out by the shed for biting analysts during the ER, I guess. #shocked

Guess we are all still waiting for DDOG to hit that cheap $135 price point again…lol.

Dreamer

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GLBE down 10%
DDOG down almost 20%
NET sitting happily like a pig in slop in the $60s, where it seems range-bound forever.

Maybe fundamentals matter again? Maybe valuation matters again?

Who am I kidding…btfd people!

Dreamer

ps…still waiting on PTLO at $18s.

2 Likes