As the US economy slips into a great depression our ability to pay the debt will decrease. We will have to print wildly to pay off the debt. Or completely default.
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Apparently this is the background:
But it’s hard not to see it as an allusion to the hypothesis rumbling around Wall Street of a massive, Trump-orchestrated devaluation of the dollar in order to bring down the value of the enormous US debt held outside the country. Code-named the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” the fictional scenario involves putting pressure on the rest of the world, with threats of tariffs or insecurity, in order to obtain an appreciation of the euro or the yuan.
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We didn’t break the Bush Fever in 2008 until the stock market dropped by 50%. It may be necessary to provide a demonstration to the voters of the full extent of the bipartisan culture of corruption in Washington.
Between France and Britain, they have enough nuclear weapons of their own to deter Russia and destroy the World with a nuclear winter.
intercst
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Great opportunity to do Roth Conversions.
IP
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Unless you think the income tax will be repealed.
Steve
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No income tax? What is going to keep people from leaving the US in that case?
IP
The US seizes all their loot if they try to leave? They’ll use some reasoning like “you only have that loot because of how Shiny the US is, so you need to leave all the loot here, because it isn’t your loot, It’s Shiny-land’s loot”.
Steve
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What timeline do you put on that
Anybody see Buffett on CBS Sunday Morning yesterday? One question was something like “What do you think of the US economy right now?” And his answer was “I can’t talk about that.”
I recall a few years ago when asked he said “I feel like an oversexed 20 year old in a harem”, or words to that effect.
It’s an interesting difference, don’t you think? Meanwhile, he has stacked up more cash than at any time in Berkshire history.
There’s a story in there someplace, methinks.
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The first $1 trillion man might be in his 90s.
He almost never talks about the overall economy. That’s because he believes in finding good companies at a fair price regardless of the macro environment. Also, because nobody really knows what’s happening in the “overall economy”, it’s mostly a fools errand for a widely known personality to discuss it, because they will be wrong 9 out of 10 times, and thus most of the time people will talk about the person being wrong.
I can’t find the exact question, but I’m pretty sure it had to do with companies and their valuation at the time. And it was a few decades ago!
In 1973, he said in reference to investing, “I feel like an oversexed guy on a desert island. I can’t find anything to buy.” And in 1974 he said “I feel like an oversexed man in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”
This has been discussed rather much over on the other Berkshire board. And their conclusion is that relative to intrinsic value, the current level of cash is high, but not remarkably high.
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And yet somehow we find ourselves on a macroeconomic discussion board.
DB2
And they say down markets can not be timed. Yet Buffet does it time and time again.
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Are we “widely known personalities?”
IP,
not counting herself in Buffet’s league, unless maybe a bowling league, and I am seriously bad at bowling
We aren’t “widely known personalities” so nobody is going to talk about us being wrong most of the time. At best, a few of us here will discuss someone being wrong (or right as the case may be).
Nope, but the first part of the sentence reads:
…nobody really knows what’s happening in the “overall economy”
But we’re having fun.
DB2
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That makes one of us.
IP
It is just pedestrian advice
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Makes for some interesting conversation, at least.
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IP – if you don’t enjoy it, then why do you hang out here? That seems counter-intuitive.
DB2