** ARK Investments Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood is known for big, bullish bets on investments such as Tesla and bitcoin. Now she’s teaming up with 21shares on new crypto-based ETFs. Wood is bullish on bitcoin, with a base case of $600,000-$650,00, though she believes it could go even higher if a spot bitcoin ETF is approved.**
Andy
This is outright dumb. What’s new?
But even half baked she succeeds. She might get hit with market manipulation.
What is dumb is not listening to something, but posting how dumb it is.
Andy
It is as dumb as quoting her and then forgetting you quoted her. BTC to $600k. Remember you quoted her?
Now you are insulting me as your memory slips. You are old.
The point is she is not your Dad’s Warren Buffett. She is a train wreck in the making.
Talk about remembering things…just adding this to the pot…(I hope you are not smoking)…you just said you do not do predictions other than no. Some sort of stuff like that. I am still trying to figure out why you are happy. But I am not convinced you are happy. You posted her prediction now you are avoiding a rational discussion of her predictions.
I see that person (entity) constantly touted on the “news” wires. Why would anyone care about what she/it says, any more than Faith Popcorn?
Steve
Because she got lucky and did amazingly well for a short time. That’s enough to crown you “Guru” until a few years of non-performance tarnishes the crown, as nearly always happens.
It’s already kind of happened to her. Her flagship ARKK fund was on top of the world in late 2020 into 2021, but it’s collapsed in value by enough that its lifetime performance now trails the S&P 500. And since most of the inflows to the fund were when the prices were high, it’s likely that the overwhelming majority of her investors lost money in that fund. She still has celebrity, but she’s already had enough non-performance to erase her prior amazing “lucky” gains.
I love how she name drops Arthur Laffer to give her ideas some cred. “You know, that Laffer guy is pretty smart and he loves it…”
But love her or hate her, we can all agree that the future of decentralized finance has arrived when big Wall Street banks get involved.
The only person that is more polarizing is Cramer. It is amazing how people get worked up about someone. Is it the fame or the money?
Andy
Is this going to be two threads or one?
Make up you mind
I said “dumb” to not be bothered with any effort. You are right about that.
For me, it is her hubris combined with being wrong, with a dash of dislike for her meaningless word salads.
Honestly I have not heard her speak. I have not read about her. I have not read what she says.
I see the headlines as click bait all the time on Yahoo. Her entire approach is crap. One day she will be up on charges for something. I could guess but we shall see instead.
I can see that syke, I am not sure exactly how much she puts into the portfolio construction. It might be she is just the talking head. Although it states she is the CIO and portfolio manager. I will state that Arthur Laffer was her mentor so I think that gives her the right to use his name.
Andy
So hold him responsible for her failure as well…
There isn’t any need to carry it to the extreme. I think everyone’s failures are their own to carry.
Andy
Laffer invented a brilliant brand, you know, like Geritol***, and then Cathie Woods “acquired” it and extended its sales life.
Excellent businesswoman!
david fb
*** Since some of you may be too young to remember:
Geritol - Wikipedia
“Twice the iron of a pound of calf’s liver”
Any viewer of Ted Mack’s amateur hour could remember that.
I’m old enough to remember watching Jon Stewart’s dressing down of Cramer live. Stewart was relentless. I almost felt bad for Cramer. Just kidding.
And, speaking of non sequiturs, I know the Laffer Curve named after Arthur Laffer, but I always thought it was more appropriate to name it the Laugher Curve.
I have no problem with her name dropping Laffer. However, Laffer is a discredited kook. She’s doesn’t add credibility by mentioning him.
I wasn’t thinking so much about her investment returns (which speak for themselves) as much has her public predictions. For example, back in 2020 she predicted we had reached peak petroleum consumption and the oil price was headed to $12.
Peak petroleum consumption is something we talk a lot about on this board and it isn’t too tough to come up with your own back of the envelope prediction. Start with EV adoption rates, which translate to fleet penetration, etc. Experts have drilled down and made refined estimates, but it is pretty easy to see that peak consumption is at least a decade out even in optimistic scenarios.
Wood looked and current consumption and saw a big drop and concluded that trend would continue into the future. But the big drop was due to COVID–which I believe most people were aware of at the time. And $12/barrel is below production costs everywhere in the world. The price of oil cannot stay that low. It was a looney prediction, I think designed to flog her investment in Telsa (i.e. electric cars are the future, and therefore Tesla is poised to take over).
In the current video above she said a couple of strange things that jumped out at me. One was that she said Bitcoin was a deflationary hedge because, she said, when there were bank failures back in March, Bitcoin continued to increase in value. This makes no sense. Inflation continued to be fairly high from March until present. She just made up the part about the deflationary event.
Then she said Bitcoin is a great hedge because there is no counter-party risk. Which is true, unless you own it in an ETF–like the one she’s trying promote. She’s basically warning people not to buy her ETF.
Next, she predicted that the US will experience deflation (and maybe already is), by drawing a straight line from decreasing inflation we’re currently seeing straight to deflation. But if we get close to deflation can’t the Fed cut interest rates? They have a long way to cut them.
What could go wrong?