** ARK Investments Founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood is known for big, bullish bets on investments such as Tesla and bitcoin. Now she’s teaming up with 21shares on new crypto-based ETFs. Wood is bullish on bitcoin, with a base case of $600,000-$650,00, though she believes it could go even higher if a spot bitcoin ETF is approved.**
It is as dumb as quoting her and then forgetting you quoted her. BTC to $600k. Remember you quoted her?
Now you are insulting me as your memory slips. You are old.
The point is she is not your Dad’s Warren Buffett. She is a train wreck in the making.
Talk about remembering things…just adding this to the pot…(I hope you are not smoking)…you just said you do not do predictions other than no. Some sort of stuff like that. I am still trying to figure out why you are happy. But I am not convinced you are happy. You posted her prediction now you are avoiding a rational discussion of her predictions.
It’s already kind of happened to her. Her flagship ARKK fund was on top of the world in late 2020 into 2021, but it’s collapsed in value by enough that its lifetime performance now trails the S&P 500. And since most of the inflows to the fund were when the prices were high, it’s likely that the overwhelming majority of her investors lost money in that fund. She still has celebrity, but she’s already had enough non-performance to erase her prior amazing “lucky” gains.
I can see that syke, I am not sure exactly how much she puts into the portfolio construction. It might be she is just the talking head. Although it states she is the CIO and portfolio manager. I will state that Arthur Laffer was her mentor so I think that gives her the right to use his name.
I have no problem with her name dropping Laffer. However, Laffer is a discredited kook. She’s doesn’t add credibility by mentioning him.
I wasn’t thinking so much about her investment returns (which speak for themselves) as much has her public predictions. For example, back in 2020 she predicted we had reached peak petroleum consumption and the oil price was headed to $12.
Peak petroleum consumption is something we talk a lot about on this board and it isn’t too tough to come up with your own back of the envelope prediction. Start with EV adoption rates, which translate to fleet penetration, etc. Experts have drilled down and made refined estimates, but it is pretty easy to see that peak consumption is at least a decade out even in optimistic scenarios.
Wood looked and current consumption and saw a big drop and concluded that trend would continue into the future. But the big drop was due to COVID–which I believe most people were aware of at the time. And $12/barrel is below production costs everywhere in the world. The price of oil cannot stay that low. It was a looney prediction, I think designed to flog her investment in Telsa (i.e. electric cars are the future, and therefore Tesla is poised to take over).
In the current video above she said a couple of strange things that jumped out at me. One was that she said Bitcoin was a deflationary hedge because, she said, when there were bank failures back in March, Bitcoin continued to increase in value. This makes no sense. Inflation continued to be fairly high from March until present. She just made up the part about the deflationary event.
Then she said Bitcoin is a great hedge because there is no counter-party risk. Which is true, unless you own it in an ETF–like the one she’s trying promote. She’s basically warning people not to buy her ETF.
Next, she predicted that the US will experience deflation (and maybe already is), by drawing a straight line from decreasing inflation we’re currently seeing straight to deflation. But if we get close to deflation can’t the Fed cut interest rates? They have a long way to cut them.