CELH is not new to TMF or to Saul board, and has been mentioned here.
Doesn’t look like I ever gave it a separate thread, so starting one here.
Stock recently split from approx $150 to $50. Been hovering just under/over, but popped a bit in past couple days.
I had mentioned in a previous thread that I wasn’t yet sold on the taste. I “experimented” with it starting in Summer during my vacation. I am a decade-plus addict to Monster Zero and/or Monster Rehab drinks. I usually have 2 per day, one in the morning and then around lunch. Try not to drink later than that, or the caffeine can affect my sleep. I am not a coffee drinker…this is my coffee vice.
Anyway, there are two basic groups of Celcius that I see at Costco:
I have been drinking the latter since Summer. Basically I start with Celcius in morning, and have my Monster Zero at lunch.
This week I finally bought the former group to try them out, as I realized I didn’t have any desire to stop drinking the Celcius. I had hesitated because one of the flavors is Peach and I am generally not a Peach fan, but this flavor is fine.
So I can say there are 6 flavors, and while the berry and Artic and Orange are my favorites, they are all solid. I do like multiple Monster Zero flavors, but they unfortunately don’t do variety packs of the flavors I like, so I generally stick with the main version (white/silver can).
Monster cans are a bit bigger, but Celcius is also slightly cheaper, so it is a wash.
The Saul board has talked the metrics so no point in rehashing it all here, but main point is they are now lapping the Pepsi agreement which turbo boosted their sales, and so now you can start eye-balling what “real” sustainable growth might be moving forward, as they grow with shelf space and international expansion, etc… I think 38% is forecasted growth while others are calling 50%. That feels like the TTD/MDB/AYX in 2018 kind of vibe. Unclear how long a non-tech stock can mimic growth rates, but Monster obviously did it for a long time successfully.
Point of this post was to say that I can validate the quality of the product now. It is a “sharper” taste which makes the Monster taste “sweeter” is the only way I can describe it. Both good, but different.
I was never a huge Red Bull fan. Always a bit too medicine-y for my taste, and they have thrived based on their marketing, imo.
Can I name a 4th player? Rockstar was good in a pinch when I traveled for work and couldn’t find my Monster. But I think the point is that marketing and distribution play a huge role, otherwise why/how Red Bull is so dominant is beyond me.
So I think Celcius has a very real shot at being a solid #3 player, and if years down the road either Monster or Red Bull stumbles, maybe they can advance further. How many brands does a grocery store need to carry? Well - they carry a lot of soda brands, despite the dominance of Coke/Pepsi. So having competition isn’t necessarily the problem…the challenge is distancing yourself into a top tier and away from also-rans, so that you command more shelf space and better placement, more usage in places where vending machines may be. Can you get sold (like Red Bull) at bars. Part of Red Bull simplicity is their main product is obvious vs other flavors. So while I personally like multiple flavors that Monster and Celsius produce, their lack of an obvious flagship flavor might word against them a bit for bars…not sure.
All this to say, I am a buyer on any meaningful dip.
What price? I am not sure I will know it until I see it, but simply seeing $49 isn’t really meaningful. But maybe I do a starter and average down if/when it has a bigger correction.
Stocks don’t have to follow analogies or paths of similar stocks in the past, but from what I can see, it does appear CELH is more highly valued at this stage in their revenue than MNST was, so I don’t consider a small dip from here a “cheap” buy.
CELH has been on the watchlist for a while now, and I dabbled in it briefly a few months back. Just feels, personally, a bit more solid now. Let’s see if the stock price plays ball in 2024.
Dreamer
