Change in US Taiwan Policy

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/09/14/senate-panel-advances-bi…
The Senate Armed Services Committee approved a bill on Wednesday that would radically alter US policy toward Taiwan and significantly escalate tensions with Beijing.

The amended version of the Taiwan Policy Act would give Taiwan $6.5 billion in military aid, give the island the benefits of being a “major non-NATO ally,” expedite arms sales to Taipei, and require sanctions in the event of Chinese aggression.

I expect Xi & the CCP will view this move as a provocation. Perhaps the military developments in the Ukraine means it now for a full court on China. We are on the path of Pax Americana-just one super power in the world—no rivals.
Taiwan now a “major non-NATO ally” that can easily morph into full membership.

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https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220915-china-s-xi…
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met for their first face-to-face talks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine on Thursday, hailing their strategic ties in defiance of the West.

China is willing to make efforts with Russia to assume the role of great powers, and play a guiding role to inject stability and positive energy into a world rocked by social turmoil," Xi told Putin at the talks.

Putin took a clear broadside at the United States, which has been leading efforts to support Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia. “Attempts to create a unipolar world have recently acquired an absolutely ugly form and are completely unacceptable,” Putin said. “We highly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin told Xi, while reiterating Moscow’s backing for China on Taiwan

I think Russia & China realistically view themselves as the last obstacles to Pax Americana. Can the US continue with it’s incremental moves to that goal without stumbling into WW3?
Putin & Xi in the last redoubt hoping to prevent that & their country’s resulting lesser status.

China did some saber rattling over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Mostly military flyovers and exercises.

Is their response continuing?

Taiwan now a “major non-NATO ally” that can easily morph into full membership.

Not unless you can tow the island to a different ocean. Or change the name of the organization and get every other signatory to agree. It’s the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

I’d bet that several of the current NATO members don’t see Taiwan as a reason to send their military to fight on the other side of the planet.

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China did some saber rattling over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Mostly military flyovers and exercises.

Is their response continuing?

Oh yes. Like the Russian view of the Crimea, China views Taiwan as a break away providence of mainline China not a separate nation.

The only fly in the ointment for the US is the high polarization of the USian population which has its roots in the escalating income inequality in the nation that could break out in civil unrest similar to Vietnam protest or the “Yellow Vest” protest in the EU which had its basis in income inequality though it is less than in the USA.

Peter Turchin predicts:”political upheaval in America in the 2020s. This is why it’s here and what we can do to temper it.” in his book “Ages of Discord”. He believes in cycles within nations that can ultimately lead to its collapse.
https://www.novonon.com/blog/2021/01/18/peter-turchins-cycle…
https://peterturchin.com/age-of-discord/

But Turchin is a Russian born American. So maybe he is part of the Russian disinformation effort?

Not unless you can tow the island to a different ocean. Or change the name of the organization and get every other signatory to agree. It’s the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

I’d bet that several of the current NATO members don’t see Taiwan as a reason to send their military to fight on the other side of the planet.

NATO is the lapdog of the US. We utilized it for Qaddafi’s removal & our fight in Afghanistan.

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/august/nato-…
NATO Navies Send Strategic Signals in the Indo-Pacific
NATO increasingly is looking to the security situation in the Indo-Pacific. Navies are the force of choice to signal China not to overstep.

https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2022-nato-and-indo-pacific-…
Although the collective defence of Allied territories is still its primary role, the end of the Cold War has prompted NATO to redefine its role and missions in terms of a broader vision of security

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The US-NATO movement to the Pacific meshes nicely with US-Australia submarine deal. The Aussies get quieter nuclear subs not armed with nukes…but they could be. And “In addition to the submarine fleet, a senior Biden administration official said AUKUS would combine forces on “cyber, AI – particularly applied AI – quantum technologies and some undersea capabilities as well”.

Morrison later announced Australia would also acquire long-range US Tomahawk cruise missiles.
https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/us-australia-submarine-deal-sp…

At the same time the US, UK, & Australia inked the AUKUS security pact.

Also Japan & India are building up their navies & hold sea drills together.
https://www.e-ir.info/2011/09/23/a-comparison-between-the-in…
https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/navies…
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/japans-navy-lot-mor…
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a411238…
https://www.dw.com/en/naval-buildup-reflects-indias-ambition…

Likely Xi sees the noose tightening.

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I think Russia & China realistically view themselves as the last obstacles to Pax Americana. Can the US continue with it’s incremental moves to that goal without stumbling into WW3?
Putin & Xi in the last redoubt hoping to prevent that & their country’s resulting lesser status.

Possibly. Although today in a statement Putin said he acknowledges China’s “questions and concerns” about Ukraine. Which means China is not fully on board in that regard. We’ve heard nothing about China sending weapons, ammo, or chips, just vague statements of support. Putin’s miscalculation of western support for Ukraine has put him in a vastly weakened negotiating position in regards to China. China appears happy to buy discounted Russian oil and gas, but don’t seem very enthused beyond that.

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Stretching Nato to cover Asia too seems extreme.

We used to have SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization) to deal with the Communist threat there. Perhaps it should be restarted. Australia, New Zealand, Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan are logical members. There could well be others such as The Philippines, Malesia, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc.

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Putin’s miscalculation of western support for Ukraine has put him in a vastly weakened negotiating position in regards to China. China appears happy to buy discounted Russian oil and gas, but don’t seem very enthused beyond that.

Gorbachev received verbal promises of no NATO which were ignored during the succeeding US administrations. And suggestions of membership to Georgia & the Ukraine have been made. Putin may of thought:”No More.”
The Soviet Union/Russian state is a multi-ethnic state. This is result ofRussian expansion as it has no defensible borders and a history of being invaded. Peter Zeihan goes into that at the last 3 minutes of this 9 minute video:https://zeihan.com/where-in-the-world-red-devil-lake-and-rus…
At the beginning of the video he goes into the mastery of the Soviet Union/Russian propaganda. That it was necessary to control the internal state & utilized as a weapon against those outside the nation state. He claims the roots of the US environmental movements is a result of Soviet propaganda and is Germany horrible energy policy.

India has also taken advantage of cheap Russian oil/gas. Their importation has doubled from Russia I believe. India & Latin America have not joined in the West sanctions against Russia.

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There could well be others such as The Philippines, Malesia, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Viet Nam, etc.


The EU’s experience with an all-encompassing group of components sometimes personifying the statement that a camel is a horse designed by committee points towards caution when creating a group of sometimes mutually exclusive countries.

Jeff

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A 1992 US government strategy plan:
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-ca…
http://goodtimesweb.org/overseas-war/2014/nyt-us-strategy-no…
In a broad new policy statement that is in its final drafting stage, the Defense Department asserts that America’s political and military mission in the post-cold-war era will be to insure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territory of the former Soviet Union.
With its focus on this concept of benevolent domination by one power

Well we all know who that should be.

At the beginning of the video he goes into the mastery of the Soviet Union/Russian propaganda. That it was necessary to control the internal state & utilized as a weapon against those outside the nation state. He claims the roots of the US environmental movements is a result of Soviet propaganda and is Germany horrible energy policy.

I dunno about the US, but Germany for sure. The German Green party is known to have collaborated with Stasi, the East German Secret police. Putin, by the way, was stationed in East Germany at the time.

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The German Green party is known to have collaborated with Stasi, the East German Secret police. Putin, by the way, was stationed in East Germany at the time.

So I’m not the only one who thinks that there is something rotten in the Green Movement. The stated objectives are good, the methods not so much.

The Captain

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I dunno about the US, but Germany for sure.

From the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology:
https://legacy-assets.eenews.net/open_files/assets/2017/07/0…

From Newsweek:
www.newsweek.com/intelligence-putin-funding-anti-fracking-ca…
“Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organizations – environmental organizations working against shale gas – to maintain dependence on imported Russian gas,” said Rasmussen.

Here in the United States, a Senate report found that the Sea Change Foundation funneled more than $43 million to environmental causes in 2011 – padding the budgets of ardent anti-fracking organizations like the League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council. The Foundation is heavily funded by a Bermuda-based shell corporation with direct ties to Putin and Russian oil interests. The shady firm is currently under indictment for offshore money laundering.

DB2

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Please do the math. There are two super powers left.

The United States

The European Union

Why would you need Russia or China to be super powers? They are not responsible adults judging by their governments. I am not judging the individuals like Xi or Putin in this statement. It is not about the individual leaders here there or anywhere. I am saying you have to have a legitimate government to be taken seriously.

Not unless you can tow the island to a different ocean.

A much easier solution is to just rename the Pacific Ocean to the Western Atlantic Ocean.

(BTW, I’m not suggesting we do this.)

Mike