Random thoughts -
this whole thing has gotten such a huge issue because Xi wanted it to be. US politicians frequently visit Taiwan and this isn’t made a big deal of by China.
I think Xi miscalculated and painted himself into a corner. He thought he could bully Pelosi into canceling the visit, gaining a propaganda advantage. That didn’t work. Now what?
Unless she buys a condo there, is there an economic impact or this? If you thought the bay area had high real estate prices check out Taipei.
YR
his whole thing has gotten such a huge issue because Xi wanted it to be. US politicians frequently visit Taiwan and this isn’t made a big deal of by China.
Is that true? Per WaPo:
Washington and Taipei behaved like allies — yet neither maintains an official embassy in the other’s capital. U.S. presidents have long avoided interacting with their Taiwanese counterparts, even over the phone, to avoid angering Beijing.
This all meant that while support for Taiwan became an important rallying cry in Washington, senior U.S. officials rarely — if ever — visited. The last high-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan was then-speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in 1997.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/nancy-pelosi…
Albaby
Unless she buys a condo there, is there an economic impact or this?
There is. China has already announced sanctions against Taiwan; I expect it will also do some confrontational military stuff, which includes a risk of some kind of shootout.
The larger picture is that Xi sees reunification with Taiwan as his life goal, and I see a large probability of him launching an attack against the island within the next two years or so.
Pelosi is the highest ranking US pol, but…
TAIPEI, April 14 (Reuters) - A group of six U.S. lawmakers, including chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez, landed in Taiwan on Thursday for a previously unannounced visit
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/six-us-lawmakers-…
US Senator Rick Scott arrived in Taiwan yesterday afternoon for a two-day visit.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/07/08/…
Three US senators arrived in Taiwan on Sunday, and are scheduled to meet with President Tsai Ing-wen, in a move that is likely to draw sharp criticism from China.
The bipartisan team, including Democrats Tammy Duckworth, Christopher Coons and Republican Dan Sullivan, are visiting as part of a larger trip to the Indo-Pacific region
https://www.dw.com/en/us-senators-visit-taiwan-in-trip-that-…
I suppose US political tourism to the island has picked up quite a bit since the war in Ukraine started, and China decided it wanted to put a stop to that. But there were visits in 2021 as well.
The larger picture is that Xi sees reunification with Taiwan as his life goal, and I see a large probability of him launching an attack against the island within the next two years or so.
I think the bigger question is does Xi want to raise the ire of the West in his quest to get Tawain back?
If yes, then invade in the next two years. The possible disruption to tech will cause war. And do this while we have dependency on TSMC/etc.
If no, then wait until America has more fabs on the continent and we don’t care about Tawain as much.
If Xi was smart he’d be pushing America to build more fabs, and quickly, IMHO.
If no, then wait
Problem is that Taiwan is running a submarine programme and is expected to have its first submarine in 2025. And Xi is also an old man.
Problem is that Taiwan is running a submarine programme and is expected to have its first submarine in 2025. And Xi is also an old man.
+++++++++++++++++
Might those be nuclear capable submarines???
YR
Taiwan would be better-served by diesel-electric boats… cheaper and well-suited to the near-coastal theater of conflict. The Japanese, Korean, Aussie navies all have them locally, while the German, Dutch, and Swedes could also be sellers.
Problem is that Taiwan is running a submarine programme and is expected to have its first submarine in 2025.
Does China have a significant amphibious force? It would be very hard to conquer Taiwan with airborne troops.
DB2
I don’t think they do but could be wrong. I keep hearing about their aircraft carriers and subs. They need a way to get not only troops on land, but also tanks and trucks, supplies, etc.
A friend forwarded me videos of tanks on trains headed towards the coasts, as well as large collection of tanks on a city street. But without boats to get them across the water what good is it?
I think this is all posturing so far. But as someone already mentioned, posturing is all well and good until someone gets a bit off balance and accidentally falls.
There is. China has already announced sanctions against Taiwan; I expect it will also do some confrontational military stuff, which includes a risk of some kind of shootout.
I find it quite nonsensical to want to “own” (?) a place, especially for its economic value (mostly human capital, not slave labor) and be willing to go shoot at them to get your way.
I mean, who would do that?
Oh…yeah…Putin is in this club too.
Mike
And Xi is also an old man.
He turned 69 earlier this year. He’s got plenty of good years in him still, unless he has some health issue I’m not aware of.
–Peter <== who no longer thinks of 60 something as being old.
You know China is serious when they parade their amphibious vehicles right through the most crowded part of a beach…guaranteed videos and uploads!
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554377876727705601
Interpreting this can be tricky - is this more Bozo or, gasp, Creepy Clown?
Does China have a significant amphibious force? It would be very hard to conquer Taiwan with airborne troops.
Oh yes. They’ve been building a fairly substantial amphibious naval capability, and the thought is that they’ll probably also conscript a large volume of civilian vessels.
I think Xi miscalculated and painted himself into a corner.
Xi is in a bigger corner economically.
He also has a problem with the up coming election. He has done political damage to himself in the communist party banishing a few people namely Bow if I have his name right. The party might exact revenge after Xi steps down. Xi might feel that pressure.Congressional delegation visits Taiwan less than two weeks after Pelosi’s trip
www.nbcnews.com/news/world/congressional-delegation-visits-t…
A congressional delegation led by Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., landed in Taiwan on Sunday, less than two weeks after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the Beijing-claimed island drew a furious response from China…They will meet senior Taiwanese leaders to discuss security, trade, supply chains and other issues, the statement said.
DB2