If/when China engages in some form of aggressive military activity or territorial incursion involving Taiwan, how will you personally be affected?
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0 voters
China causing volatility is even more positive. Same logic.
Taiwan’s situation reminds me of the game of Go. When Taiwan is surrounded, game over.
Loss of Taiwan Semiconductor to China will be a big deal and might have far reaching implications. And they have lots more electronics component manufacturing.
Just in time sourcing and over reliance on the far east for parts is a serious error for many domestic manufacturers. Let’s hope they have learned to diversify. But who will pay the cost? Here comes more inflation.
Manufacturing places like Mexico or Puerto Rico have potential but they too seem to depend on east Asia for components. We need multiple level integration and diversification of supply sources.
Now we must pay our dues for these bad decisions.
I think China is not strong enough militarily for an invasion. I think Taiwan is heavily enough armed to stop it. The Chinese can not do street fighting street to street as the US, UK and AU sink their troop carriers.
China’s economic problems are just beginning. I do not think their economy will recover from Covid. Not only because other countries will pick up the slack more and more such as the US corporations building factories outside of China and now in the US, but because Xi is managing the economy.
Both Xi and Putin by definition as dictators can not optimize their economies.
In the case of Russia too much of the liquid wealth is outside of Russia. In the case of China their debt problems have just begun. Xi wants to print his way out of like the US does. It is not that simple it is a balancing act on a massive scale in the China as it is in the US. Xi is not intelligent enough to handle it. (note I am not saying he is not intelligent at grabbing power) Putin is also not intelligent enough to handle his economy. It shows.
If it happens, America has to make a decision, end the US-sponsored world of the free, or escalate, maybe up to nuclear proportions, as neither side backs off. The Chinese just escalate and escalate … while the US recently has decided it won’t put up with that.
If it was just USA, maybe the right decision is to make a huge noise about how aggressively it will stand up for Taiwan to try and head it off … but in the actual event, accept it’s not its back yard.
But it is Japan, Korea and maybe Australia’s back yard. That changes the equation, it means China crystallises the China-vs-everyone else scenario … which means their success is far from assured … and opens up a Pandora’s box of circumstances that could topple the current CCP leadership. Which despite what they say about levelling up, territorial integrity, corruption etc. … is their only real concern.
When Taiwan is surrounded, game over.
China is surrounded…
The Captain
Loss of Taiwan Semiconductor to China will be a big deal and might have far reaching implications.
Yes, and it seems that US industry is starting to wake up about this.
I don’t know when, but eventually Taiwan will become under the control of China.
Intel is investing $20 billion for new chip manufacturing in Ohio. It is scheduled to begin this year and be completed in 2025.
Samsung has said they will build a $17 billion facility in Texas.
It would be nice if our politicians (both parties) can get their act together and pass something like the $52 billion CHIPS for America Act.
This isn’t just about computers and cars. This has serious national economy and national security implications.
AW
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074733306/intel-ohio-compute…
But it is Japan, Korea and maybe Australia’s back yard. That changes the equation, it means China crystallises the China-vs-everyone else scenario … which means their success is far from assured .
Of course that is why Au is getting the nuclear powered subs. That is why Japan is arming and in all likelihood going to change her constitution to arm aggressively.
The threat Xi would like to issue he is inadvertently crippling as he destroys his economy. He had the worst of hands dealt to him. He is making an overgrown criminal ass of himself.
In a truly democratic republic we assume our leaders are weak and fail a lot. That paradoxically is our strength. We watch a dictator wield power unquestioned and that of course is their entire country's weakness. We live in a democracy, we can question the actual crippling very destructive weaknesses of Xi and Putin.It would be nice if our politicians (both parties) can get their act together and pass something like the $52 billion CHIPS for America Act.
Yes, I thought this was falling under Infrastructure I. I was wrong about that. The bill does have bipartisan support. It is a no brainer.
Without getting into details, the bills before congress now on Russia and China have huge bipartisan support with calls to go even further. Much of that is military, sanctions and related strategic planning from foreign aide to industrial policy.
The US, the young kid on the block, is gearing up.
Find us a democratic republic so weak.....and you have made a mistake in judgement.I think China is not strong enough militarily for an invasion.
China has 2 million active military. Taiwan has 44,000. Taiwan can mass war materiel to its heart’s content just over 100 miles away, the US is thousands of miles away, except for a few aircraft carriers - which would involve us in a direct war with China.
I don’t know how we win that.
There are two things that could stop the world cold with a significant supply disruption. One is oil, and we saw what that meant in the 70’s. The other is “chips” and we need only look at the shutdowns at the auto plants to see what that portends. Now expand that to televisions, toasters, thermostats, timers, tanks, trucks, and trade of all sorts. And with a capital “T”, that’s Taiwan.
More to the point, Russia and China both have leaders in the “beat your chest” mode, and they have just concluded a non-aggression pact. I’m sorry, I’m thinking of 1937. A Treat of GoodNeighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.
No, I’m not worried at all.
Should say “China can mass war material just across the strait, about 110 miles away.”
I said “Taiwan”. They could do it too, I suppose, except China is just a little bit bigger.
China has 2 million active military. Taiwan has 44,000. Taiwan can mass war materiel to its heart’s content just over 100 miles away, the US is thousands of miles away, except for a few aircraft carriers - which would involve us in a direct war with China.
The US and UK have nuclear powered submarines to take out the Chinese troop carriers. Taiwan has strong air defenses. In the event of the US and UK getting involved in destroying the troop carriers what will Xi do? Nuke the US? No.
I agree Putin and Xi are fascists. The communist labels are meaningless. It is 1937. It also is 2022. In 1937 the US was barely armed. It is more 2022. We need France and Germany to get much more heavily armed to create a balance of power in Europe. That would ward off Putin’s aggressions to a degree.
The 1937 posing between Putin and Xi is more ignorance as if playing strategic war games would make Russia a power again. As long as Putin has control Russia fails.