China Tipping Point with Omicron BA.2

China at a COVID Tipping Point
Eric Feigl-Ding
March 15, 2022

I have a sinking feeling again… a bad feeling I had 2 years ago, when Wuhan was in a state of panic trying to control the initial outbreak, that the events in China could ripple across the world. I hope I am wrong, but here is why I have this same feeling again…

Altogether, there’s currently over 50 million residents of major [Chinese] cities under strict, stay at home, lockdown, plus almost 40 million more in partial lockdown, plus additional smaller medium cities also in varying degrees of lockdown…

Most of the China and HK surges are BA2. BA2, while a subvariant of Omicron, is very different from BA1 original Omicron, and it has shown superior fitness to old BA1 in multiple counties, with a 80-90% transmission advantage per week based on BA2 growth in the US. Notably, in England, cases are surging across every age groups, and both cases and hospitalizations surging, as BA2 is now over 50% dominant…


I believe China is now teetering at the edge between barely containing BA2 wave of COVID-19 and completely losing control like it has in Hong Kong—which we know could spell horrible conditions outcomes and huge economic difficulties and disruption to the most critical manufacturing and export centers of the world.

This could be disastrous if they don’t get it under control soon, both for China and for the global economy. He mentions that more than 1/2 of the Chinese elderly 80+ years old are not fully vaccinated. The death toll if it runs rampant will be staggering. Really, they simply cannot let it run rampant … we’ll see wider and wider strict lockdowns put into place no matter the economic cost before they let it run rampant.


Alternatively, they get their own freedumb movement that decides it’s had enough draconian lockdown and the whole country goes up in flame (not coincidentally also doing a great deal to alleviate their inverted age pyramid).