Contrasting fortunes with the Brexit volatility

Not sure how much folks are keeping an eye on individual stocks vs the big red portfolio total number, but whilst there has been a fall and rise across the board concerning the bulk of Saul like stocks, I can’t help but notice some extreme performers.

A point on stability:-

Leaving aside the net neutral gyrations which we have all been noticing and commenting on, it didn’t escape my attention that a few stocks were remarkably stable and resilient including FIVE and Mobileye which could be a re-assuring feature to keep in mind with further worries and uncertainties.

On the upside:-

Abiomed hardly blinked at Brexit and has stormed ahead to 1.08 - within touch of the all time high and they still face the uncertainty and challenge of a competitor head to head trial results at year end. This could be a disruptive moment for the firm. Whilst it is definitely in break out mode and worth riding, it looks like a high exit mark is becoming available pending the future uncertainty. Not sure how much I want to play chicken on this one for the rest of the year. Sure we might have a few more quarters of 30% growth but at some point it will have to face the music. I’m putting this one on watch for a potential exist especially if it cannot break the 1.10 52 week high.

LGIH dropped slightly but then roared ahead. The potential lower for longer scenario with the Fed’s interest rates policy might be helping. In any event - LGIH had had a pretty Brexit wobble but now seems to be in a strong position at a YTD high and closing in on its all time high of ~35. With fabulous growth and value credentials this is one I’m going to hold on to.

NetEase (yes I know it is Chinese), was down less than 5% and is now 5% above its pre-Brexit position. This is consistently seen as the best value ultra fast growth stock in the China internet space.

Whole Foods Market is another that just rose through the Brexit storm. It probably doesn’t make it onto the growth tables round here but if 365 becomes a real hit, WFM could be back in growth mode - one to watch.

On the downside:-

NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings) and (CCL) Carnival have been hit badly with Brexit as well as broader concerns about economic slowdown, oil price rises and terrorism. They might not be 20% growers but they manage 10%+ and have incredible tail winds with a global ageing population and the emergence of the China tourist market.
NCLH is 25% down from its high and still 10% down from pre Brexit. CCL is also 20% down from its high and 10% down from pre Brexit. I’m going to be topping up on NCLH which has one of the best quality offerings and the best growth prospects and from a smaller base than the other cruise majors.

Cyber security operators took a moderate hit and have struggled to bounce back. From the blue chip Check Point which was down 6.5% still down 5% to the high growth players like CyberArk, Imperva and FireEye which dropped 7-8% and are still down over 5% and well down from their 52 week highs.

Patriot National is still looking fairly subdued and the response to the 9.50 buy out offer has been pathetic. I am assuming the company is trying to shop itself for a higher price before it has to come back and accept the low ball offer from Ebix. Interestingly Ebix fell moderately at Brexit but not that much and has bounced a little yesterday. The paper valuation of the PN offer is still materially above the current price. Maybe it’s worth a punt - and potentially sticking with Ebix post takeout.

On a side note, one other company that I have observed in the real world and gives me concerns is Grub.

Whilst these guys operate in the US and London and are tediously rolling out their operations city by city, I have noticed both Deliveroo and now UBER Eats rolling out country by country. I just don’t see GRUB maintaining its market leadership anymore and with the threats from Amazon prime and the delivery start ups, I think I have had it with this one. Whilst the recent share price action looks promising I think I will take advantage of any pops to exit this one. It isn’t going to change the world the way I thought it could and it doesn’t look as though it will even be the one to change America.

Anyhow - just some viewpoints looking across the end to end recent movements of my US portfolio.



ORLY seemed unaffected, too. It’s been rising recently, after languishing for a month or so.

Orly The French domestic airport? They’ve been on strike of late so maybe with the strike over the return to work has produced an uplift in sentiment, (not sure about actual productivity).

I’m guessing he meant O’Reilly Automotive. They have an aggressive share buyback model – I bet they got the idea from Lampert and Autozone. It has been working well for both companies for years. Intriguing…

Ant, I also am of a similar mind about PN. Seems like it would be hard for them not to be a good buy at ~$8. Feels like arbitrage.

Yes, I meant the car parts stores. There was a recent Fool article that favored stock buybacks. I think it makes some sense for ORLY to buy back its stock when it’s relatively cheap, as long as it has spare cash, like Apple does.

Yeh I as joking about the French airport. Although I’ve never heard of this car parts store.

Ant, I also am of a similar mind about PN. Seems like it would be hard for them not to be a good buy at ~$8. Feels like arbitrage.

Well PN is down near its post offer low at 8.13 which risks falling below a support level again, (although it did hold at $8 twice last week after dropping to 7.70 on Brexit day). EBIX is back slightly above its offer day price point after bouncing off its rising 50 day EMA (which is well above the 200 day EMA). Unfortunately EBIX didn’t reveal the 9.50 calculation in terms of cash and stock nor the conversion price this is base on so could avoid sharing any EBIX price appreciation with the PN shareholders in the deal and stick at a $9.50 value.

Agree I think there’s arbitrage. Given that PN has boxed itself into a corning by putting itself up for sale it pretty much has to accept this offer or produce a competing bid to accept and if that were the case it could make for a bidding war.

I guess the company could consider taking itself private but then it should have done that at $4.

Despite the 2x rise this year, 4x rise in the last 2 years and 20x in the last 10, EBIX still looks a good play. I would prefer to be entering in around 30 but hey.


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Yeh I as joking about the French airport. Although I’ve never heard of this car parts store.

You never heard of it because it’s not called orly but O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. and it has a fantastic Klein chart:

it looks a bit overpriced just now.

While I was compiling my fast grower list I was expecting to find a great many technology companies and was surprised to find several industrial ones including two automobile after market ones, O’Reilly and LKQ Corp. (LKQ) which does not have a Klein chart because it does not have 16 years of price data

Denny Schlesinger