Control Panel: Attack on Iran

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
25

AoE besties Iran n China have trade agreements. Bestie Russia, and I assume bestie PRNK also.

Propping Iran (n Russia) up as proxies, such that US n West war materiel is consumed, might appeal to China?

China gets “real world” testing of China’s war materiel, too.
Win Win!

:mushroom:
ralph

1 Like
26

This from a country that wouldn’t even supply Iran with S-400 missile defense systems or Su-35 fighters?

DB2

27

So “why would China get involved”?

DB2

28

Couldn’t or wouldn’t? It only takes one.

32

iirc, Kaddaffii has given up everything that had the slightest whiff of a nuke, when he saw what the US did to Iraq. But, he had a rep as a “state sponsor of terror”, just like what is being hung on Iran. Remember the Lockerbie PanAm bombing? Besides, Libya has oil.

Steve

1 Like
33

Whether Libya was involved there is murky at best. It seems more likely Iran was behind it, perhaps as a revenge for the US shooting down Iran Air 655 a few months earlier.

34

I think my irony meter just broke.

Reality check. Where does China buy oil? More from our buddies Putin and MBS, than the Mullahs in Iran.

Screenshot 2025-06-22 at 17-10-16 Where Does China Get Its Oil - The Wire China - Where Does China Get Its Oil_ - The Wire China.pdf
Screenshot 2025-06-22 at 17-10-16 Where Does China Get Its Oil - The Wire China - Where Does China Get Its Oil_ - The Wire China.pdf987×436 89.8 KB

Steve

1 Like
35

Interestingly the equal weighted S&P 500 index P/E is 20. High, but not bubble high.

2 Likes
37

They will welcome us as liberators… The war hawks peddle lots of nonsense… this is one of that.

2 Likes
38

We won’t be welcomed.

But the regime won’t be missed.

1 Like
39

First the Arabs have died in the millions because of Iran.
Some of you assume Israel would do that but no.

AI Overview

It’s impossible to give a precise number of people the Iranian regime has tortured, as this is a complex issue with no definitive figures publicly available

. However, several reports and organizations document the widespread use of torture and ill-treatment by the Iranian regime.

Here are some key points highlighting the severity and scope of this issue:

  • Systemic Impunity: The Iranian regime routinely uses torture to suppress dissent and coerce confessions.
  • Prevalence in Prisons: Torture is especially prevalent during pretrial detention, particularly in cases involving detained protesters. There have been numerous instances of security forces and prison personnel torturing, beating, or raping detainees and prisoners.
  • Deaths in Custody: Amnesty International has documented dozens of deaths in custody involving reports of physical torture or other ill-treatment, many occurring shortly after arrest.
  • Use Against Protesters: Security forces used torture, sexual assault, and enforced disappearances as part of a pattern of serious violations in suppressing protests.
  • Forced Confessions: Tortured confessions are regularly used as evidence in unfair trials.
  • Vulnerable Groups Targeted: Torture is used against a range of groups, including political prisoners, protestors, women, children, members of ethnic and religious minorities, and those accused of “espionage”.
  • Specific Examples of Torture: Torture methods include beating, burning, electric shocks, mock executions, rape and sexual violence, and amputations.

While a precise number of individuals tortured is not available, the evidence suggests a widespread and systematic practice by the Iranian regime to maintain control and suppress dissent.

40

So all those killed by Israel are what???

3 Likes
42

The biggest problem is that it’ll cost 1-2% of portfolio for a LIMITED period of time. Then, if the event hasn’t happened yet, you have to spend another 1-2%, and then another, etc.

43

Define the limited period. If it is one year, SPY at $600 1% is $6 can buy only $410 put which is 30% decline, pretty much useless. Even $12 which is 2%, you can buy $485, which is 20%. Even spreads where you forgot the first 10% and try to protect the next 10% with 1% doesn’t work.

So buying these kind of hedges cannot be systematic, rather you have to use your gut feeling and time it.

55

Do you have a link.
What I’ve found on the internet differs.

China’s Top Providers of Imported Crude Oil

Below are the top 15 countries that supplied 88.6% of the crude petroleum oil imported into mainland China during 2024.

1. Russia: US$94.8 billion (18.8% of China’s crude oil imports)
2. Malaysia: $51.6 billion (10.3%)
3. Saudi Arabia: $49.2 billion (9.8%)
4. Iraq: $38.2 billion (7.6%)
5. United Arab Emirates: $29.9 billion (5.9%)
6. Oman: $27.8 billion (5.5%)
7. Australia: $25.4 billion (5%)
8. United States: $23.1 billion (4.6%)
9. Brazil: $22.9 billion (4.6%)
10. Indonesia: $20.1 billion (4%)
11. Qatar: $19 billion (3.8%)
12. Angola: $17.5 billion (3.5%)
13. Kuwait: $10.8 billion (2.2%)
14. Turkmenistan: $9.6 billion (1.9%)
15. Mongolia: $8.7 billion (1.7%)

1 Like
57

Steve your info is dated and Iran has dropped to below #15 in supplying China.

60

Yes, it is dated, the most recent being dated 2015-2019. Your table shows more recent data. So, that brings us back to the musical question, why would China care about Iran? The Chinese probably assume the US will protect all “friendly” tankers, because that is what the US does: make the world safe for money.

Steve

1 Like